• Title/Summary/Keyword: Biases

검색결과 588건 처리시간 0.025초

Clustering and traveling waves in the Monte Carlo criticality simulation of decoupled and confined media

  • Dumonteil, Eric;Bruna, Giovanni;Malvagi, Fausto;Onillon, Anthony;Richet, Yann
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제49권6호
    • /
    • pp.1157-1164
    • /
    • 2017
  • The Monte Carlo criticality simulation of decoupled systems, as for instance in large reactor cores, has been a challenging issue for a long time. In particular, due to limited computer time resources, the number of neutrons simulated per generation is still many order of magnitudes below realistic statistics, even during the start-up phases of reactors. This limited number of neutrons triggers a strong clustering effect of the neutron population that affects Monte Carlo tallies. Below a certain threshold, not only is the variance affected but also the estimation of the eigenvectors. In this paper we will build a time-dependent diffusion equation that takes into account both spatial correlations and population control (fixed number of neutrons along generations). We will show that its solution obeys a traveling wave dynamic, and we will discuss the mechanism that explains this biasing of local tallies whenever leakage boundary conditions are applied to the system.

Sensitivity studies in spent fuel pool criticality safety analysis for APR-1400 nuclear power plants

  • Al Awad, Abdulrahman S.;Habashy, Abdalla;Metwally, Walid A.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제50권5호
    • /
    • pp.709-716
    • /
    • 2018
  • A criticality safety analysis was performed for the APR-1400 spent fuel pool region-II to ensure the safe storage of spent fuel, with credit taken for depletion and in-rack neutron absorbers (Metamic panels). PLUS7 fuel assembly was modeled using TRITON-NEWT of SCALE-6.1. The burnup-dependent cross-section library was generated under limiting core-operating conditions with 5%-w U-235 initial enrichment. MCNP5 was used to evaluate the neutron multiplication factor in an infinite array of rack cells with the axially nonuniformly burnt PLUS7 assemblies under normal, abnormal, and accident conditions; including all biases and uncertainties. The main purpose of this study is to investigate reactivity variations due to the critical depletion and reactor operation parameters. The approach, assumptions, and modeling methods were verified by analyzing the contents of the most important fissile and the associated reactivity effects. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance on k-eff being less than 1.0 for spent fuel pools filled with unborated water was the main criterion used in this study. It was found that assemblies with 49.0 GWd/MTU and 5.0 w/o U-235 initial enrichment loaded in Region-II satisfy this criterion. Moreover, it was found that the end effect resulted in a positive bias, thus ensuring its consideration.

Discovering Gene-Environment Interactions in the Post-Genomic Era

  • Naidoo, Nirinjini;Chia, Kee-Seng
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • 제42권6호
    • /
    • pp.356-359
    • /
    • 2009
  • In the more than 100 genome wide association studies (GWAS) conducted in the past 5 years, more than 250 genetic loci contributing to more than 40 common diseases and traits have been identified. Whilst many genes have been linked to a trait, both their individual and combined effects are small and unable to explain earlier estimates of heritability. Given the rapid changes in disease incidence that cannot be accounted for by changes in diagnostic practises, there is need to have well characterized exposure information in addition to genomic data for the study of gene-environment interactions. The case-control and cohort study designs are most suited for studying associations between risk factors and occurrence of an outcome. However, the case control study design is subject to several biases and hence the preferred choice of the prospective cohort study design in investigating geneenvironment interactions. A major limitation of utilising the prospective cohort study design is the long duration of follow-up of participants to accumulate adequate outcome data. The GWAS paradigm is a timely reminder for traditional epidemiologists who often perform one- or few-at-a-time hypothesis-testing studies with the main hallmarks of GWAS being the agnostic approach and the massive dataset derived through large-scale international collaborations.

An Intelligent Exhibition Rule Management System using PMML

  • Moon, Hyun Sil;Cho, Yoon Ho;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • 제25권1호
    • /
    • pp.83-97
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recently, the exhibition industry has developed rapidly with the development of information technologies. Most exhibitors in an exhibition plan and deploy many events that may provide advantages to visitors as a method of effective promotion. The growth and propagation of wireless technologies is a powerful marketing tool for exhibitors. However, exhibitors still rely on domain experts who are costly and time consuming because of the manual knowledge input procedure. Moreover, it is prone to biases and errors and not suitable for managing fast-growing and tremendous amounts of data that far exceed a human's ability to comprehend. To overcome these problems, data mining technology may be a great alternative, but it needs to be fit to each exhibition. This study uses data mining technology with the Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) to suggest a system that supports intelligent services and that improves stakeholder satisfaction. This system provides advantages to the exhibitor, show organizer, and system designer, and is first enhanced by integrating data mining technologies through the knowledge of exhibition experts. Second, using the PMML, the system can automate the process of applying data mining models to solve real-time processing problems in the exhibition environment.

위성영상의 통계적 분류를 위한 유효 트레이닝 기법에 관한 연구 (The Effective Training Method for the Statistical Classification of Remotely Sensed Imagery)

  • 이병길;김용일;어양담
    • 한국측량학회지
    • /
    • 제17권3호
    • /
    • pp.225-231
    • /
    • 1999
  • 위성영상의 통계적 분석에서는 트레이닝을 통하여 추정된 각 클래스의 평균과 분산을 통계적 유사성 결정의 근거로 사용한다. 따라서, 트레이닝 작업의 결과는 전체적인 분류정확도에 큰 영향을 주게 된다. 이상적인 위성영상 데이터의 분포는 정규분포에 근사한 것으로 가정되고 있으나, 실제로는 약간의 밀집도와 편의를 보이며 이러한 분포의 이상이 트레이닝 결과 추정되는 분산뿐만 아니라 분류 결과 자체에도 많은 영향을 준다. 본 연구에서는 트레이닝을 통해 추정된 분산의 특성과 이러한 특성이 화소값의 분포와 어떤 관련이 있는지를 규명하고, 그에 따른 분류결과의 변화에 대해 검토하였고, 분산 과소추정의 영향을 최소화할 수 있는 트레이닝 기법을 제시하였다.

  • PDF

공황장애의 암묵 및 외현기억 편향 (Implicit and Explicit Memory Bias in Panic Disorder)

  • 정나영;채정호;이경욱
    • 대한불안의학회지
    • /
    • 제8권1호
    • /
    • pp.3-8
    • /
    • 2012
  • Patients with panic disoder (PD) show recollection of their first panic attack, which resembles a trauma that is perceived as an unexpected frightening and subjectively life-threatening event. Information-processing models suggest that anxiety disorders may be characterized by a memory bias for threat-related information. This paper reviews the previous researches that investigated the implicit and/or explicit biases in patients with panic disorder. Among the 17 studies, which addressed the explicit memory bias in PD patients, 11 (64.7%) were found to be explicit memory bias in PD patients. In regards to the implicit memory bias, 4 out of 9 studies (44.4%) were found to support the memory bias. The result shows that evidence of explicit memory bias in PD patients was supported by a number of previous researches. However, evidence of implicit memory bias seems less robust, thus, needs further research for replication. Also, development of new paradigms and applications of various methods will be needed in further researches on memory bias in PD patients.

Spatio-temporal dependent errors of radar rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation

  • Ko, Dasang;Park, Taewoong;Lee, Taesam;Lee, Dongryul
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
    • /
    • pp.164-164
    • /
    • 2016
  • Radar rainfall estimates have been widely used in calculating rainfall amount approximately and predicting flood risks. The radar rainfall estimates have a number of error sources such as beam blockage and ground clutter hinder their applications to hydrological flood forecasting. Moreover, it has been reported in paper that those errors are inter-correlated spatially and temporally. Therefore, in the current study, we tested influence about spatio-temporal errors in radar rainfall estimates. Spatio-temporal errors were simulated through a stochastic simulation model, called Multivariate Autoregressive (MAR). For runoff simulation, the Nam River basin in South Korea was used with the distributed rainfall-runoff model, Vflo. The results indicated that spatio-temporal dependent errors caused much higher variations in peak discharge than spatial dependent errors. To further investigate the effect of the magnitude of time correlation among radar errors, different magnitudes of temporal correlations were employed during the rainfall-runoff simulation. The results indicated that strong correlation caused a higher variation in peak discharge. This concluded that the effects on reducing temporal and spatial correlation must be taken in addition to correcting the biases in radar rainfall estimates. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant from a Strategic Research Project (Development of Flood Warning and Snowfall Estimation Platform Using Hydrological Radars), which was funded by the Korea Institute of Construction Technology.

  • PDF

Probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement

  • Song, Jun-Ho;Kang, Won-Hee;Kim, Kang-Su;Jung, Sung-Moon
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제34권1호
    • /
    • pp.15-38
    • /
    • 2010
  • In order to predict the shear strengths of reinforced concrete beams, many deterministic models have been developed based on rules of mechanics and on experimental test results. While the constant and variable angle truss models are known to provide reliable bases and to give reasonable predictions for the shear strengths of members with shear reinforcement, in the case of members without shear reinforcement, even advanced models with complicated procedures may show lack of accuracy or lead to fairly different predictions from other similar models. For this reason, many research efforts have been made for more accurate predictions, which resulted in important recent publications. This paper develops probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement based on deterministic shear strength models, understanding of shear transfer mechanisms and influential parameters, and experimental test results reported in the literature. Using a Bayesian parameter estimation method, the biases of base deterministic models are identified as algebraic functions of input parameters and the errors of the developed models remaining after the bias-correction are quantified in a stochastic manner. The proposed probabilistic models predict the shear strengths with improved accuracy and help incorporate the model uncertainties into vulnerability estimations and risk-quantified designs.

CORE-JET BLENDING EFFECTS IN ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI UNDER THE KOREAN VLBI NETWORK VIEW AT 43 GHZ

  • Algaba, Juan-Carlos;Hodgson, Jeffrey;Kang, Sin-Cheol;Kim, Dae-Won;Kim, Jae-Young;Lee, Jee Won;Lee, Sang-Sung;Trippe, Sascha
    • 천문학회지
    • /
    • 제52권2호
    • /
    • pp.31-40
    • /
    • 2019
  • A long standing problem in the study of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) is that the observed VLBI core is in fact a blending of the actual AGN core (classically defined by the ${\tau}=1$ surface) and the upstream regions of the jet or optically thin flows. This blending may cause some biases in the observables of the core, such as its flux density, size or brightness temperature, which may lead to misleading interpretation of the derived quantities and physics. We study the effects of such blending under the view of the Korean VLBI Network (KVN) for a sample of AGNs at 43 GHz by comparing their observed properties with observations obtained using the Very Large Baseline Array (VLBA). Our results suggest that the observed core sizes are a factor ~ 11 larger than these of VLBA, which is similar to the factor expected by considering the different resolutions of the two facilities. We suggest the use of this factor to consider blending effects in KVN measurements. Other parameters, such as flux density or brightness temperature, seem to possess a more complicated dependence.

포괄적 부부상호작용 코딩시스템(MICS-G) 국내 타당화 연구 (The Marital Interaction Coding System-Global(MICS-G): A Validation Study)

  • 박우철
    • Human Ecology Research
    • /
    • 제57권1호
    • /
    • pp.109-125
    • /
    • 2019
  • Few studies have utilized observational methods in the field of couple research even though using self-report questionnaires is prone to the subjective biases of the reporter. This study validates the Marital Interaction Coding System-Global (MICS-G), a global version of the well-established microanalytic observational coding system, Marital Interaction Coding System (MICS). Participants in the study consisted of 30 married couples with varied levels of marital adjustment who visited one of the Healthy Family and Multicultural Family Support Centers in Seoul, either for couple therapy or the "Marriage Checkup"program. Ten-minute problem-solving discussions were rated by two undergraduate student raters who were trained for 10 hours. Interobserver agreement based on percentage agreement and intraclass correlation coefficients showed a high level of agreement between raters in establishing interrater reliability. Convergent validity was established by: correlations among marital adjustment, psychological aggression, mental health, and MICS-G categories of conflicts, validation, invalidation, facilitation, and withdrawal. MICS-G categories also were successful in discriminating between distressed and nondistressed couples, which provides evidence of discriminant validity for MICS-G. This study showed that MICS-G is a promising method for researchers to observe couple interactions in a more cost-effective way. Methodological issues and practical applications are also discussed.