• Title/Summary/Keyword: Biases

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A novel liquefaction prediction framework for seismically-excited tunnel lining

  • Shafiei, Payam;Azadi, Mohammad;Razzaghi, Mehran Seyed
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.401-419
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    • 2022
  • A novel hybrid extreme machine learning-multiverse optimizer (ELM-MVO) framework is proposed to predict the liquefaction phenomenon in seismically excited tunnel lining inside the sand lens. The MVO is applied to optimize the input weights and biases of the ELM algorithm to improve its efficiency. The tunnel located inside the liquefied sand lens is also evaluated under various near- and far-field earthquakes. The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method to predict the liquefaction event against the conventional extreme machine learning (ELM) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. The outcomes also indicate that the possibility of liquefaction in sand lenses under far-field seismic excitations is much less than the near-field excitations, even with a small magnitude. Hence, tunnels designed in geographical areas where seismic excitations are more likely to be generated in the near area should be specially prepared. The sand lens around the tunnel also has larger settlements due to liquefaction.

The Effects of Homeownership on Welfare Perceptions (자가소유가 복지인식에 미치는 영향)

  • Paik, Jong-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.25 no.6_3
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    • pp.1261-1273
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    • 2022
  • Homeownership is much more than a financial calculation. It is a socio-psychological phenomenon. During the last decade studies of homeownership have demonstrated a positive link between homeownership and positive social outcomes including welfare perceptions and attitudes. This study compared welfare perceptions between homeowners and renters in Korean Welfare Panel Survey using data collected in 2019. The study analyzed six continuous outcomes of welfare perceptions. Six variables indicating welfare perceptions included: (1) welfare and work disincentives; (2) welfare recipients are lazy; (3) welfare selectivism; (4) national minimum; (5) free university education and; (6) free child care and kindergarten. This study acknowledged bias arising from selection on observables. To control these biases, this study employed analytical approaches including the treatment effect model. Results of this study confirmed that attainment of homeownership is not possible for everyone. Findings from this study have provided some evidence that homeowners and renters have different perceptions on welfare listed above. Finally, issues relating to homeownership and welfare perceptions were discussed. Implications for social work practice and research were further discussed.

The Effect of Consideration Set on Market Structure

  • Kim, Jun B.
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2020
  • We estimate a choice-based aggregate demand model accounting for consumers' consideration sets, and study its implications on market structure. In contrast to past research, we model and estimate consumer demand using aggregate-level consumer browsing data in addition to aggregate-level choice data. The use of consumer browsing data allows us to study consumer demand in a realistic setting in which consumers choose from a subset of products. We calibrate the proposed model on both data sets, avoid biases in parameter estimates, and compute the price elasticity measures. As an empirical application, we estimate consumer demand in the camcorder category and study its implications on market structure. The proposed model predicts a limited consumer price response and offers a more discriminating competitive landscape from the one assuming universal consideration set.

Illumination correction via improved grey wolf optimizer for regularized random vector functional link network

  • Xiaochun Zhang;Zhiyu Zhou
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.816-839
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    • 2023
  • In a random vector functional link (RVFL) network, shortcomings such as local optimal stagnation and decreased convergence performance cause a reduction in the accuracy of illumination correction by only inputting the weights and biases of hidden neurons. In this study, we proposed an improved regularized random vector functional link (RRVFL) network algorithm with an optimized grey wolf optimizer (GWO). Herein, we first proposed the moth-flame optimization (MFO) algorithm to provide a set of excellent initial populations to improve the convergence rate of GWO. Thereafter, the MFO-GWO algorithm simultaneously optimized the input feature, input weight, hidden node and bias of RRVFL, thereby avoiding local optimal stagnation. Finally, the MFO-GWO-RRVFL algorithm was applied to ameliorate the performance of illumination correction of various test images. The experimental results revealed that the MFO-GWO-RRVFL algorithm was stable, compatible, and exhibited a fast convergence rate.

Assessing the impact of recombination on the estimation of isolation-with-migration models using genomic data: a simulation study

  • Yujin Chung
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.27.1-27.7
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    • 2023
  • Recombination events complicate the evolutionary history of populations and species and have a significant impact on the inference of isolation-with-migration (IM) models. However, several existing methods have been developed, assuming no recombination within a locus and free recombination between loci. In this study, we investigated the effect of recombination on the estimation of IM models using genomic data. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the consistency of the parameter estimators with up to 1,000 loci and analyze true gene trees to examine the sources of errors in estimating the IM model parameters. The results showed that the presence of recombination led to biased estimates of the IM model parameters, with population sizes being more overestimated and migration rates being more underestimated as the number of loci increased. The magnitude of the biases tended to increase with the recombination rates when using 100 or more loci. On the other hand, the estimation of splitting times remained consistent as the number of loci increased. In the absence of recombination, the estimators of the IM model parameters remained consistent.

Novel estimation based on a minimum distance under the progressive Type-II censoring scheme

  • Young Eun Jeon;Suk-Bok Kang;Jung-In Seo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.411-421
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    • 2023
  • This paper provides a new estimation equation based on the concept of a minimum distance between the empirical and theoretical distribution functions under the most widely used progressive Type-II censoring scheme. For illustrative purposes, simulated and real datasets from a three-parameter Weibull distribution are analyzed. For comparison, the most popular estimation methods, the maximum likelihood and maximum product of spacings estimation methods, are developed together. In the analysis of simulated datasets, the excellence of the provided estimation method is demonstrated through the degree of the estimation failure of the likelihood-based method, and its validity is demonstrated through the mean squared errors and biases of the estimators obtained from the provided estimation equation. In the analysis of the real dataset, two types of goodness-of-fit tests are performed on whether the observed dataset has the three-parameter Weibull distribution under the progressive Type-II censoring scheme, through which the performance of the new estimation equation provided is examined.

Compact Modeling for Nanosheet FET Based on TCAD-Machine Learning (TCAD-머신러닝 기반 나노시트 FETs 컴팩트 모델링)

  • Junhyeok Song;Wonbok Lee;Jonghwan Lee
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.136-141
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    • 2023
  • The continuous shrinking of transistors in integrated circuits leads to difficulties in improving performance, resulting in the emerging transistors such as nanosheet field-effect transistors. In this paper, we propose a TCAD-machine learning framework of nanosheet FETs to model the current-voltage characteristics. Sentaurus TCAD simulations of nanosheet FETs are performed to obtain a large amount of device data. A machine learning model of I-V characteristics is trained using the multi-layer perceptron from these TCAD data. The weights and biases obtained from multi-layer perceptron are implemented in a PSPICE netlist to verify the accuracy of I-V and the DC transfer characteristics of a CMOS inverter. It is found that the proposed machine learning model is applicable to the prediction of nanosheet field-effect transistors device and circuit performance.

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A sensitivity analysis of machine learning models on fire-induced spalling of concrete: Revealing the impact of data manipulation on accuracy and explainability

  • Mohammad K. al-Bashiti;M.Z. Naser
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.409-423
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    • 2024
  • Using an extensive database, a sensitivity analysis across fifteen machine learning (ML) classifiers was conducted to evaluate the impact of various data manipulation techniques, evaluation metrics, and explainability tools. The results of this sensitivity analysis reveal that the examined models can achieve an accuracy ranging from 72-93% in predicting the fire-induced spalling of concrete and denote the light gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting, and random forest algorithms as the best-performing models. Among such models, the six key factors influencing spalling were maximum exposure temperature, heating rate, compressive strength of concrete, moisture content, silica fume content, and the quantity of polypropylene fiber. Our analysis also documents some conflicting results observed with the deep learning model. As such, this study highlights the necessity of selecting suitable models and carefully evaluating the presence of possible outcome biases.

Unbilled Revenue and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts (진행기준 수익인식 방법과 재무분석가 이익예측 - 미청구공사 계정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Bo-Mi;Park, Bo-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.151-165
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the effect of revenue recognition by percentage of completion method on financial analysts' earnings forecasting information in order industry. Specifically, we examines how the analysts' earnings forecast errors and biases differ according to whether or not to report the unbilled revenue account balance and the level of unbilled revenue account balance. The sample consists of 453 firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2014 since the information on unbilled revenue accounts can be obtained after the adoption of K-IFRS. The results are as follows. First, we find that the firms with unbilled revenue account balances have lower analysts' earnings forecast accuracy than the firms who do not report unbilled revue account balances. In addition, we find that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts decreases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. Unbilled revenue account balances occur when the revenue recognition of the contractor is faster than the client. There is a possibility that managerial discretionary judgment and estimation may intervene when the contractor calculates the progress rate. The difference between the actual progress of the construction and the progress recognized by the company lowers the predictive value of financial statements. Our results suggest that the analysts' earnings forecasts may be more difficult for the firms that report unbilled revenue balances as applying the revenue recognition method based on the progress criteria. Second, we find that the firms reporting unbilled revenue account balances tend to have higher the optimistic biases in analysts' earnings forecast than the firms who do not report unbilled revenue account balances. And we find that the analysts' earnings forecast biases are increases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. This study suggests an effort to reduce the arbitrary adjustment and estimation in the measurement of the progress as well as the introduction of the progress measurement method which can reflect the actual progress. Investors are encouraged to invest and analyze the characteristics of the order-based industry accounting standards. In addition, the results of this study empower the accounting transparency enhancement plan for order industry proposed by the policy authorities.

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Anura Call Monitoring Data Collection and Quality Management through Citizen Participation (시민참여형 무미목 양서류 음성신호 수집 및 품질관리 방안)

  • Kyeong-Tae Kim;Hyun-Jung Lee;Won-Kyong Song
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.230-245
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    • 2024
  • Amphibians, sensitive to external environmental changes, serve as bioindicator species for assessing alterations or disturbances in local ecosystems. It is known that one-third of amphibian species within the order Anura are at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic threats such as habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by urbanization. To develop effective protection and conservation strategies for anuran amphibians, species surveys that account for population characteristics are essential. This study aimed to investigate the potential for citizen participation in ecological monitoring using the mating calls of anura species. We also proposed suitable quality control measures to mitigate errors and biases, ensuring the extraction of reliable species occurrence data. The Citizen Science project was carried out nationwide from April 1 to August 31, 2022, targeting 12 species of anura amphibians in Korea. Citizens voluntarily participated in voice signal monitoring, where they listened to anura species' mating calls and recorded them using a mobile application. Additionally, we established a quality control process to extract reliable species occurrence data, categorizing errors and biases from citizen-collected data into three levels: omission, commission, and incorrect identification. A total of 6,808 observations were collected during the citizen participation in anura species vocalization monitoring. Through the quality control process, errors and biases were identified in 1,944 (28.55%) of the 6,808 data. The most common type of error was omission, accounting for 922 cases (47.43%), followed by incorrect identification with 540 cases (27.78%), and commission with 482 cases (24.79%). During the Citizen Science project, we successfully recorded the mating calls of 10 out of the 12 anuran amphibian species in Korea, excluding the Asian toads (Bufo gargarizans Cantor), Korean brown frog (Rana coreana). Difficulties in collecting mating calls were primarily attributed to challenges in observing due to population decline or discrepancies between the breeding season of non-emergent individuals and the timing of the citizen science project. This study represents the first investigation of distribution status and species emergence data collection through mating calls of anura species in Korea based on citizen participation. It can serve as a foundation for designing future bioacoustic monitoring that incorporates citizen science and quality control measures for citizen science data.