• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1039-1047
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• 2014

시계열 자료를 위한 가장 기본적인 모형인 자기회귀모형을 고려한다. 흔히 시계열 자료에서 정규성 가정이 위배되는 경우가 발생하며, 정규성 가정을 완화하기 위한 방법으로 두꺼운 꼬리를 가지는 분포 또는 비대칭 분포를 고려할 수 있다. 비대칭 지수멱 분포의 사용은 비뚤림이 있는 두꺼운 꼬리를 가지는 자기회귀모형의 이상치의 영향을 줄이고 로버스트한 추론을 할 수 있도록 한다. 본 논문에서는 자기회귀모형에 대한 오차항에 정규분포 보다 첨도와 왜도에 유연함을 가지는 분포를 고려함으로써 정규성 가정을 완화하여 추론하고자 하였다. 정규분포의 대안으로 비대칭 지수멱 분포를 고려하였으며 정규분포의 결과와 비교 하여 비대칭 지수멱 분포의 로버스트함을 보였다. 또한 주어진 분포에 대한 효율적인 베이지안 추론을 하기 위하여 SIR 알고리즘과 격자망 방법을 고려하였다.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.92-100
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• 2012

Objectives: The French National Occupational Diseases Surveillance and Prevention Network (RNV3P) is a French network of occupational disease specialists, which collects, in standardised coded reports, all cases where a physician of any specialty, referred a patient to a university occupational disease centre, to establish the relation between the disease observed and occupational exposures, independently of statutory considerations related to compensation. The objective is to compare the relevance of disproportionality measures, widely used in pharmacovigilance, for the detection of potentially new disease ${\times}$ exposure associations in RNV3P database (by analogy with the detection of potentially new health event ${\times}$ drug associations in the spontaneous reporting databases from pharmacovigilance). Methods: 2001-2009 data from RNV3P are used (81,132 observations leading to 11,627 disease ${\times}$ exposure associations). The structure of RNV3P database is compared with the ones of pharmacovigilance databases. Seven disproportionality metrics are tested and their results, notably in terms of ranking the disease ${\times}$ exposure associations, are compared. Results: RNV3P and pharmacovigilance databases showed similar structure. Frequentist methods (proportional reporting ratio [PRR], reporting odds ratio [ROR]) and a Bayesian one (known as BCPNN for "Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network") show a rather similar behaviour on our data, conversely to other methods (as Poisson). Finally the PRR method was chosen, because more complex methods did not show a greater value with the RNV3P data. Accordingly, a procedure for detecting signals with PRR method, automatic triage for exclusion of associations already known, and then investigating these signals is suggested. Conclusion: This procedure may be seen as a first step of hypothesis generation before launching epidemiological and/or experimental studies.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.45.1-45.5
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• 2020

With the ongoing rise of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe, interests in COVID-19 antibody testing, also known as a serology test has grown, as a way to measure how far the infection has spread in the population and to identify individuals who may be immune. Recently, many countries reported their population based antibody titer study results. South Korea recently reported their third antibody formation rate, where it divided the study between the general population and the young male youths in their early twenties. As previously stated, these simple point estimates may be misinterpreted without proper estimation of standard error and confidence intervals. In this article, we provide an updated 95% confidence intervals for COVID-19 antibody formation rate for the Korean population using asymptotic, exact and Bayesian statistical estimation methods. As before, we found that the Wald method gives the narrowest interval among all asymptotic methods whereas mid p-value gives the narrowest among all exact methods and Jeffrey's method gives the narrowest from Bayesian method. The most conservative 95% confidence interval estimation shows that as of 00:00 November 23, 2020, at least 69,524 people were infected but not confirmed. It also shows that more positive cases were found among the young male in their twenties (0.22%), three times that of the general public (0.051%). This thereby calls for the quarantine authorities' need to strengthen quarantine managements for the early twenties in order to find the hidden infected people in the population.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.31.1-31.8
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• 2020

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become a global pandemic. No specific therapeutic agents or vaccines for COVID-19 are available, though several antiviral drugs, are under investigation as treatment agents for COVID-19. The use of convalescent plasma transfusion that contain neutralizing antibodies for COVID-19 has become the major focus. This requires mass screening of populations for these antibodies. While several countries started reporting population based antibody rate, its simple point estimate may be misinterpreted without proper estimation of standard error and confidence intervals. In this paper, we review the importance of antibody studies and present the 95% confidence intervals COVID-19 antibody rate for the Korean population using two recently performed antibody tests in Korea. Due to the sparsity of data, the estimation of confidence interval is a big challenge. Thus, we consider several confidence intervals using Asymptotic, Exact and Bayesian estimation methods. In this article, we found that the Wald method gives the narrowest interval among all Asymptotic methods whereas mid p-value gives the narrowest among all Exact methods and Jeffrey's method gives the narrowest from Bayesian method. The most conservative 95% confidence interval estimation shows that as of 00:00 on September 15, 2020, at least 32,602 people were infected but not confirmed in Korea.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.807-816
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• 2024

Objective: This study aims to identify the significant regions and candidate genes of growth-related traits (adjusted backfat thickness [ABF], average daily gain [ADG], and days to 90 kg [DAYS90]) in Korean commercial GGP pig (Duroc, Landrace, and Yorkshire) populations. Methods: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed using single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers for imputation to Illumina PorcineSNP60. The BayesB method was applied to calculate thresholds for the significance of SNP markers. The identified windows were considered significant if they explained ≥1% genetic variance. Results: A total of 28 window regions were related to genetic growth effects. Bayesian GWAS revealed 28 significant genetic regions including 52 informative SNPs associated with growth traits (ABF, ADG, DAYS90) in Duroc, Landrace, and Yorkshire pigs, with genetic variance ranging from 1.00% to 5.46%. Additionally, 14 candidate genes with previous functional validation were identified for these traits. Conclusion: The identified SNPs within these regions hold potential value for future marker-assisted or genomic selection in pig breeding programs. Consequently, they contribute to an improved understanding of genetic architecture and our ability to genetically enhance pigs. SNPs within the identified regions could prove valuable for future marker-assisted or genomic selection in pig breeding programs.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제32권7호
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• pp.913-921
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• 2019

Objective: The objectives of this study were to compare identified informative regions through two genome-wide association study (GWAS) approaches and determine the accuracy and bias of the direct genomic value (DGV) for milk production traits in Korean Holstein cattle, using two genomic prediction approaches: single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ss-GBLUP) and Bayesian Bayes-B. Methods: Records on production traits such as adjusted 305-day milk (MY305), fat (FY305), and protein (PY305) yields were collected from 265,271 first parity cows. After quality control, 50,765 single-nucleotide polymorphic genotypes were available for analysis. In GWAS for ss-GBLUP (ssGWAS) and Bayes-B (BayesGWAS), the proportion of genetic variance for each 1-Mb genomic window was calculated and used to identify informative genomic regions. Accuracy of the DGV was estimated by a five-fold cross-validation with random clustering. As a measure of accuracy for DGV, we also assessed the correlation between DGV and deregressed-estimated breeding value (DEBV). The bias of DGV for each method was obtained by determining regression coefficients. Results: A total of nine and five significant windows (1 Mb) were identified for MY305 using ssGWAS and BayesGWAS, respectively. Using ssGWAS and BayesGWAS, we also detected multiple significant regions for FY305 (12 and 7) and PY305 (14 and 2), respectively. Both single-step DGV and Bayes DGV also showed somewhat moderate accuracy ranges for MY305 (0.32 to 0.34), FY305 (0.37 to 0.39), and PY305 (0.35 to 0.36) traits, respectively. The mean biases of DGVs determined using the single-step and Bayesian methods were $1.50{\pm}0.21$ and $1.18{\pm}0.26$ for MY305, $1.75{\pm}0.33$ and $1.14{\pm}0.20$ for FY305, and $1.59{\pm}0.20$ and $1.14{\pm}0.15$ for PY305, respectively. Conclusion: From the bias perspective, we believe that genomic selection based on the application of Bayesian approaches would be more suitable than application of ss-GBLUP in Korean Holstein populations.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.832-841
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• 2013

In recent years, eutrophication in the Paldang Lake has become one of the major environmental problems in Korea as it may threaten drinking water safety and human health. Thus it is important to understand the phenomena and predict the time and magnitude of algal blooms for applying adequate algal reduction measures. This study performed seasonal water quality assessment and chlorophyll-a prediction using Bayseian simple/multiple linear regression analysis. Bayseian regression analysis could be a useful tool to overcome limitations of conventional regression analysis. Also it can consider uncertainty in prediction by using posterior distribution. Generally, chlorophyll-a of a P2(Paldang Dam 2) site showed high concentration in spring and it was similar to that of P4(Paldang Dam 4) site. For the development of Bayseian model, we performed seasonal correlation. As a result, chlorophyll-a of a P2 site had a high correlation with P5(Paldang Dam 5) site in spring (r = 0.786, p<0.05) and with P4 in winter (r = 0.843, p<0.05). Based on the DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) value, critical explanatory variables of the best fitting Bayesian linear regression model were selected as a $PO_4-P$ (P2), Chlorophyll-a (P5) in spring, $NH_3-N$ (P2), Chlorophyll-a (P4), $NH_3-N$ (P4) in summer, DTP (P2), outflow (P2), TP (P3), TP (P4) fall, COD (P2), Chl-a (P4) and COD (P4) in winter. The results of chlorophyll-a prediction showed relatively high $R^2$ and low RMSE values in summer and winter.

• Plant Breeding and Biotechnology
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.321-336
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• 2018

Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) is an important oilseed crop grown in tropical and subtropical areas. The objective of this study was to investigate the genetic relationships among 129 sesame landraces and cultivars using simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. Out of 70 SSRs, 23 were found to be informative and produced 157 alleles. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 - 14, whereas polymorphic information content ranged from 0.33 - 0.86. A distance-based phylogenetic analysis revealed two major and six minor clusters. The population structure analysis using a Bayesian model-based program in STRUCTURE 2.3.4 divided 129 sesame accessions into three major populations (K = 3). Based on pairwise comparison estimates, Pop1 was observed to be genetically close to Pop2 with $F_{ST}$ value of 0.15, while Pop2 and Pop3 were genetically closest with $F_{ST}$ value of 0.08. Analysis of molecular variance revealed a high percentage of variability among individuals within populations (85.84%) than among the populations (14.16%). Similarly, a high variance was observed among the individuals within the country of origins (90.45%) than between the countries of origins. The grouping of genotypes in clusters was not related to their geographic origin indicating considerable gene flow among sesame genotypes across the selected geographic regions. The SSR markers used in the present study were able to distinguish closely linked sesame genotypes, thereby showing their usefulness in assessing the potentially important source of genetic variation. These markers can be used for future sesame varietal classification, conservation, and other breeding purposes.

• 한국자원식물학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.310-319
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• 2013

우리나라 특산식물인 매미꽃(Coreanomecon hylomeconoides Nakai) 집단의 유전적 다양성 및 구조를 조사하기 위해 8집단 224개체에 대한 ISSR(Inter Simple Sequence Repeat) 분석이 수행되었다. 총 8개의 ISSR 프라이머를 이용하여 50개의 증폭산물을 관찰하였으며 집단 수준에서의 유전적 다양성의 평균은 P (Percentage of polymorphic loci) = 47.3%, SI(Shannon's information index) = 0.218, h (Nei's genetic diversity) = 0.142로 다년생 초본류의 평균보다는 월등히 낮게 나타났다. 집단별로는 분포의 중심에 해당하는 산청(SI=0.233, h=0153), 광양(SI=0.263, h=0.171), 순천(SI=0.241, h=0.159) 집단이 남해(SI=0.183, h=0.116)나 광주(SI=0.181, h=0.121)의 변두리 집단보다는 비교적 높은 유전다양성을 유지하는 것으로 나타났다. AMOVA 분석 결과 전체 유전변이의 약 18%가 지역 간에 나머지 82%가 집단 내 개체간의 차이에 기인하는 것으로 나타났는데 이는 집단 간에 유전자 교류가 원활히 이루어지기 때문으로 판단된다. 유전적 거리를 이용한 UMGMA 유집분석과 Bayesian cluster 분석 결과, 매미꽃 집단은 동서 두 지역으로 구조화 되는 경향을 보여 주었는데 이는 집단의 지리적 분포 패턴의 영향인 것으로 추정할 수 있다. 본 연구 결과, 조사된 다른 집단보다 풍부한 개체수와 높은 유전 다양성을 유지하고 있는 지리산 및 백운산의 산청, 광양 집단들에 대한 적극적인 현지 내(in situ) 보전대책 수립이 요구된다.

• 대한한의학회지
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.46-55
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• 2013

Objectives: Classifying the pattern of jaundice during diagnosis will significantly improve the outcome of common KM interventions. This study aimed at determining an objective index for accurately diagnosing heat and dampness KM patterns in patients with jaundice. Methods: We systematically reviewed laboratory findings from case reports published in the scientific literature of Korean medicine. Cases were classified as following either the heat or dampness pattern. Biochemical indices were compared using a Bayesian factor (BF) analysis and standard t-tests. Results: The laboratory findings of 32 patients were evaluated. The heat pattern was observed in 17 patients and the dampness pattern in 15. No significant differences were observed between the 2 groups in terms of white blood cell count (BF=1.659); hemoglobin concentration (BF=2.627); platelet count (BF=1.019); or levels of direct bilirubin (BF=1.453), aspartate aminotransferase (BF=1.226), alanine aminotransferase (BF=1.340), alkaline phosphatase (BF=2.344), or gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (BF=2.782). However, total bilirubin levels were significantly higher in the dampness pattern group (BF=0.854, P-value=0.070). Conclusions: Patients with high total bilirubin levels may predominantly follow the dampness pattern, while those with low levels may predominantly follow the heat pattern. These results are expected to be useful for the development of timely and efficient KM treatments as well as new integrative therapeutic approaches for jaundice. However, further studies are essential to fully validate the utility of total bilirubin as a biomarker for differentiating between heat and dampness patterns.