• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.101-112
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• 2018

A lot of manpower and budgets are being used to prevent fires, and only a small portion of the data generated during this process is used for disaster prevention activities. This study develops a prediction model of fire occurrence probability based on data mining in order to more actively use these data for disaster prevention activities. For this purpose, variables for predicting fire occurrence probability of various buildings were selected and data of construction administrative system, national fire information system, and Korea Fire Insurance Association were collected and integrated data set was constructed. After appropriate data cleansing and preprocessing, various data mining methodologies such as artificial neural network, decision trees, SVM, and Naive Bayesian were used to develop a prediction model of the fire occurrence probability of buildings. The most accurate model among the derived models is Linear SVM model which shows 68.42% as experimental data and 63.54% as verification data and it is the best model to predict fire occurrence probability of buildings. As this study develops the prediction model which uses only the set values of the specific ranges, future studies may explore more opportunites to use various setting values not shown in this study.

• Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.179-187
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• 1999

Purpose : This paper introduces a computationally inexpensive context-dependent classification of multi-echo MRI with Bayes compound decision model. In order to produce accurate region segmentation especially in homogeneous area and along boundaries of the regions, we propose a classification method that uses contextual information of local enighborhood system in the image. Material and Methods : The performance of the context free classifier over a statistically heterogeneous image can be improved if the local stationary regions in the image are disassociated from each other through the mechanism of the interaction parameters defined at he local neighborhood level. In order to improve the classification accuracy, we use the contextual information which resolves ambiguities in the class assignment of a pattern based on the labels of the neighboring patterns in classifying the image. Since the data immediately surrounding a given pixel is intimately associated with this given pixel., then if the true nature of the surrounding pixel is known this can be used to extract the true nature of the given pixel. The proposed context-dependent compound decision model uses the compound Bayes decision rule with the contextual information. As for the contextual information in the model, the directional transition probabilities estimated from the local neighborhood system are used for the interaction parameters. Results : The context-dependent classification paradigm with compound Bayesian model for multi-echo MR images is developed. Compared to context free classification which does not consider contextual information, context-dependent classifier show improved classification results especially in homogeneous and along boundaries of regions since contextual information is used during the classification. Conclusion : We introduce a new paradigm to classify multi-echo MRI using clustering analysis and Bayesian compound decision model to improve the classification results.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.985-999
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• 2019

Over the last decade, droughts have become more severe and frequent in many regions, and several studies have been conducted to explore the recent drought. Copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis has been widely used to evaluate drought risk in the context of point frequency analysis. However, the relatively significant uncertainties in the parameters are problematic when available data are limited. For this reason, the primary purpose of this study is to develop a regional drought frequency model based on the Copula function. All parameters, including marginal and copula functions in the regional frequency model, were estimated simultaneously. Here, we present a case study of recent drought 2013-2015 over the Han-River watershed where severe drought risk is consistently found to increase. The proposed model provided a reliable way to significantly reduce the uncertainty of parameters with a Bayesian modeling framework. The uncertainty of the joint return period in the regional frequency analysis is nearly three times lower than that of the point frequency analysis. Accordingly, DIC values in the regional frequency analysis model are significantly decreased by 15. The results confirm that the proposed model is not only reliably representing characteristics of historical droughts and dependencies between drought variables, but also providing the efficacy of understanding regional drought characteristics.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.30 no.3_4
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• pp.326-338
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• 2003

The objective of a neural network design and model selection is to construct an optimal network with a good generalization performance. However, training data include noises, and the number of training data is not sufficient, which results in the difference between the true probability distribution and the empirical one. The difference makes the teaming parameters to over-fit only to training data and to deviate from the true distribution of data, which is called the overfitting phenomenon. The overfilled neural network shows good approximations for the training data, but gives bad predictions to untrained new data. As the complexity of the neural network increases, this overfitting phenomenon also becomes more severe. In this paper, by taking statistical viewpoint, we proposed an integrative process for neural network design and model selection method in order to improve generalization performance. At first, by using the natural gradient learning with adaptive regularization, we try to obtain optimal parameters that are not overfilled to training data with fast convergence. By adopting the natural pruning to the obtained optimal parameters, we generate several candidates of network model with different sizes. Finally, we select an optimal model among candidate models based on the Bayesian Information Criteria. Through the computer simulation on benchmark problems, we confirm the generalization and structure optimization performance of the proposed integrative process of teaming and model selection.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.133-144
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• 2006

In order to catch out such Bond Strength, the preceding researchers had ever examined the Bond Strength of FRP Plate through their experimentations by setting up of various fluent. However, since the experiment for research on such Bond Strength takes much of expenditure for equipment structure and time-consuming, also difficult to carry out, it is conducting limitedly. This Study purposes to develop the most suitable Artificial Neural Network Model by application of various Neural Network Model and Algorithm to the adhering experiment data of the preceding researchers. Output Layer of Artificial Neural Network Model, and Input Layer of Bond Strength were performed the learning by selection as the variable of the thickness, width, adhered length, the modulus of elasticity, tensile strength, and the compressive strength of concrete, tensile strength, width, respectively. The developed Artificial Neural Network Model has applied Back-Propagation, and its error was learnt to be converged within the range of 0.001. Besides, the process for generalization has dissolved the problem of Over-Fitting in the way of more generalized method by introduction of Bayesian Technique. The verification on the developed Model was executed by comparison with the resulted value of Bond Strength made by the other preceding researchers which was never been utilized to the learning as yet.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.955-968
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• 2021

A water resource plan is routinely based on a natural flow and can be estimated using observed streamflow data or a long-term continuous rainfall-runoff model. However, the watershed with the natural flow is very limited to the upstream area of the dam. In particular, for the ungauged watershed, a rainfall-runoff model is established for the gauged watershed, and the model is then applied to the ungauged watershed by transferring the associated parameters. In this study, the GR4J rainfall-runoff model is mainly used to regionalize the parameters that are estimated from the 14 dam watershed via an optimization process. In terms of optimizing the parameters, the Bayesian approach was applied to consider the uncertainty of parameters quantitatively, and a number of parameter samples obtained from the posterior distribution were used for the regionalization. Here, the relationship between the estimated parameters and the topographical factors was first identified, and the dependencies between them are effectively modeled by a Copula function approach to obtain the regionalized parameters. The predicted streamflow with the use of regionalized parameters showed a good agreement with that of the observed with a correlation of about 0.8. It was found that the proposed regionalized framework is able to effectively simulate streamflow for the ungauged watersheds by the use of the regionalized parameters, along with the associated uncertainty, informed by the basin characteristics.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.28 no.12C
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• pp.1200-1208
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• 2003

Affective computing plays an important role in intelligent Human Computer Interactions(HCI). To detect emotional events, it is desirable to construct a computing model for extracting emotion related features from video. In this paper, we propose a statistical model based on the probabilistic distribution of low level features in video shots. The proposed method extracts low level features from video shots and then from a GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model) for them to detect emotional shots. As low level features, we use color, camera motion and sequence of shot lengths. The features can be modeled as a GMM by using EM(Expectation Maximization) algorithm and the relations between time and emotions are estimated by MLE(Maximum Likelihood Estimation). Finally, the two statistical models are combined together using Bayesian framework to detect emotional events in video.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.112-121
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• 1999

This article reviews the development of geophysical inverse theory. In a series of articles published in 1967, 1968, and 1979, G. Backus and F. Gilbert a trade-off between model resolution and estimation errors in geophysical inverse problems, and gave a criterion to compromise the reciprocal relation. Although the criterion was not clear in the physical point of view, it had been extensively used in the interpretation of geophysical date in the 1970s. This was the starting point of the fruitful development of inverse theory in geophysics. A reasonable criterion to compromise the reciprocal relation was derived to solve linear problems by D. D. jackson in 1979, introducing the concept of a priori information about unknown model parameters. This Jackson's approach was extended to solve nonlinear problems on the basis o probabilistic approach to the inverse problems formulated by A. Tarantola and B. Vallete in 1982. At the end of 1980s ABIC (Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion) was introduced for selecting a more reasonable model in geophysics. Now the date inversion is regarded as the process of extracting new information from observed data, combining in with a priori information about model parameters, and constructing a more clear image of model.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.197-206
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• 2011

The ability to detect online abnormal events in signals is essential in many real-world signal processing applications. In order to detect abnormal events, previously known algorithms require an explicit signal statistical model, and interpret abnormal events as statistical model abrupt changes. In general, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation theory to estimate well as detection methods have been used. However, the above-mentioned methods for robust and tractable model, it is not easy to estimate. More freedom to estimate how the model is needed. In this paper, we investigate a machine learning, descriptor-based approach that does not require a explicit descriptors statistical model, based on support vector machines are known to be robust statistical models and a sequential optimal algorithm online support vector machine is introduced.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.611-629
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• 2016

This study presents a new approach of surrogate modeling for time-consuming finite element analysis. A surrogate model is widely used to reduce the computational cost under an iterative computational analysis. Although a variety of the methods have been widely investigated, there are still difficulties in surrogate modeling from a practical point of view: (1) How to derive optimal design of experiments (i.e., the number of training samples and their locations); and (2) diagnostics of the surrogate model. To overcome these difficulties, we propose a sequential surrogate modeling based on Gaussian process model (GPM) with self-adaptive sampling. The proposed approach not only enables further sampling to make GPM more accurate, but also evaluates the model adequacy within a sequential framework. The applicability of the proposed approach is first demonstrated by using mathematical test functions. Then, it is applied as a substitute of the iterative finite element analysis to Monte Carlo simulation for a response uncertainty analysis under correlated input uncertainties. In all numerical studies, it is successful to build GPM automatically with the minimal user intervention. The proposed approach can be customized for the various response surfaces and help a less experienced user save his/her efforts.