한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제54권11호
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  • Pages.955-968
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  • 2021
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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지역특성인자의 상호연관성을 고려한 강우-유출모형 매개변수 지역화

Regionalization of rainfall-runoff model parameters based on the correlation of regional characteristic factors

  • 김진국 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부) ;
  • 오랑치맥 솜야 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김태정 (한국수자원조사기술원 기획경영본부) ;
  • 권현한 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과)
  • Kim, Jin-Guk (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Sumyia, Uranchimeg (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Jeong (Planning & Management Division, Korea Institute of Hydrological Survey) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
  • 투고 : 2021.10.19
  • 심사 : 2021.10.27
  • 발행 : 2021.11.30
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초록

수자원 계획 수립시 인위적인 하천수의 사용 및 조절 과정을 거치지 않는 자연유량 상태를 기반으로 이루어지며, 관측자료를 이용하거나 장기유출모형을 이용한 방법 등을 통해 산정할 수 있다. 그러나, 자연적인 유출 상태를 보이는 유역은 매우 제한적이며, 미계측유역은 수문모형을 구축한 후 이를 전이시켜 산정하는 등 신뢰성 있는 수문자료는 여전히 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 GR4J 강우-유출모형을 활용하여 14개 댐 상류 유역에 대한 매개변수 최적화를 수행하여 자연유량의 재현성을 평가하였다. 매개변수의 불확실성을 정량적으로 고려하기 위해 Bayesian 이론을 도입하였으며, 매개변수의 사후분포로부터 추출되는 다수의 매개변수를 지역화에 활용하였다. 최종적으로 최적 매개변수와 유역의 특성을 갖는 인자에 대한 상관관계를 파악해 유역특성인자를 선별하였으며, 인자 사이의 상관성을 효과적으로 고려하기 위하여 Copula 함수를 활용해 매개변수 지역화 모델로 확장하였다. 결과적으로 지역 매개변수를 활용해 산정된 유량과 14개 댐 관측 유입량이 약 0.8 이상의 높은 상관성을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론은 미계측유역의 강우-유출모형 매개변수 추정시 유역특성을 고려한 지역 매개변수의 추정이 가능하다는 측면에서 유리한 장점을 확인할 수 있으며, 동시에 불확실성 정보를 제공함으로써 미계측유역의 자연유량 예측 모형으로 활용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

A water resource plan is routinely based on a natural flow and can be estimated using observed streamflow data or a long-term continuous rainfall-runoff model. However, the watershed with the natural flow is very limited to the upstream area of the dam. In particular, for the ungauged watershed, a rainfall-runoff model is established for the gauged watershed, and the model is then applied to the ungauged watershed by transferring the associated parameters. In this study, the GR4J rainfall-runoff model is mainly used to regionalize the parameters that are estimated from the 14 dam watershed via an optimization process. In terms of optimizing the parameters, the Bayesian approach was applied to consider the uncertainty of parameters quantitatively, and a number of parameter samples obtained from the posterior distribution were used for the regionalization. Here, the relationship between the estimated parameters and the topographical factors was first identified, and the dependencies between them are effectively modeled by a Copula function approach to obtain the regionalized parameters. The predicted streamflow with the use of regionalized parameters showed a good agreement with that of the observed with a correlation of about 0.8. It was found that the proposed regionalized framework is able to effectively simulate streamflow for the ungauged watersheds by the use of the regionalized parameters, along with the associated uncertainty, informed by the basin characteristics.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 국토교통부/국토교통과학기술진흥원 지원으로 수행되었음(과제번호 21AWMP-B121100-06).

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