• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian model

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Survival Analysis of Gastric Cancer Patients with Incomplete Data

  • Moghimbeigi, Abbas;Tapak, Lily;Roshanaei, Ghodaratolla;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Survival analysis of gastric cancer patients requires knowledge about factors that affect survival time. This paper attempted to analyze the survival of patients with incomplete registered data by using imputation methods. Materials and Methods: Three missing data imputation methods, including regression, expectation maximization algorithm, and multiple imputation (MI) using Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods, were applied to the data of cancer patients referred to the cancer institute at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran in 2003 to 2008. The data included demographic variables, survival times, and censored variable of 471 patients with gastric cancer. After using imputation methods to account for missing covariate data, the data were analyzed using a Cox regression model and the results were compared. Results: The mean patient survival time after diagnosis was $49.1{\pm}4.4$ months. In the complete case analysis, which used information from 100 of the 471 patients, very wide and uninformative confidence intervals were obtained for the chemotherapy and surgery hazard ratios (HRs). However, after imputation, the maximum confidence interval widths for the chemotherapy and surgery HRs were 8.470 and 0.806, respectively. The minimum width corresponded with MI. Furthermore, the minimum Bayesian and Akaike information criteria values correlated with MI (-821.236 and -827.866, respectively). Conclusions: Missing value imputation increased the estimate precision and accuracy. In addition, MI yielded better results when compared with the expectation maximization algorithm and regression simple imputation methods.

Context Aware Feature Selection Model for Salient Feature Detection from Mobile Video Devices (모바일 비디오기기 위에서의 중요한 객체탐색을 위한 문맥인식 특성벡터 선택 모델)

  • Lee, Jaeho;Shin, Hyunkyung
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2014
  • Cluttered background is a major obstacle in developing salient object detection and tracking system for mobile device captured natural scene video frames. In this paper we propose a context aware feature vector selection model to provide an efficient noise filtering by machine learning based classifiers. Since the context awareness for feature selection is achieved by searching nearest neighborhoods, known as NP hard problem, we apply a fast approximation method with complexity analysis in details. Separability enhancement in feature vector space by adding the context aware feature subsets is studied rigorously using principal component analysis (PCA). Overall performance enhancement is quantified by the statistical measures in terms of the various machine learning models including MLP, SVM, Naïve Bayesian, CART. Summary of computational costs and performance enhancement is also presented.

Identification of major risk factors association with respiratory diseases by data mining (데이터마이닝 모형을 활용한 호흡기질환의 주요인 선별)

  • Lee, Jea-Young;Kim, Hyun-Ji
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.373-384
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    • 2014
  • Data mining is to clarify pattern or correlation of mass data of complicated structure and to predict the diverse outcomes. This technique is used in the fields of finance, telecommunication, circulation, medicine and so on. In this paper, we selected risk factors of respiratory diseases in the field of medicine. The data we used was divided into respiratory diseases group and health group from the Gyeongsangbuk-do database of Community Health Survey conducted in 2012. In order to select major risk factors, we applied data mining techniques such as neural network, logistic regression, Bayesian network, C5.0 and CART. We divided total data into training and testing data, and applied model which was designed by training data to testing data. By the comparison of prediction accuracy, CART was identified as best model. Depression, smoking and stress were proved as the major risk factors of respiratory disease.

Efficient Methods for Reducing Clock Cycles in VHDL Model Verification (VHDL 모델 검증의 효율적인 시간단축 방법)

  • Kim, Kang-Chul
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2003
  • Design verification of VHDL models is getting difficult and has become a critical and time-consuming process in hardware design. Recent]y the methods using Bayesian estimation and stopping rule have been introduced to verify behavioral models and to reduce clock cycles. This paper presents two strategies to reduce clock cycles when using stopping rule in a VHDL model verification. The first method is that a semi-random variable is defined and the data that stay in the range of semi-random variable are skipped when stopping rule is running. The second one is to keep the old values of parameters when phases of stopping rule are changed. 12 VHDL models are examined to observe the effectiveness of strategies, and the simulation results show that more than about 25% of clock cycles is reduced by using the two proposed strategies with 0.6% losses of branch coverage rate.

Determination of Genetic Diversity Using 15 Simple Sequence Repeats Markers in Long Term Selected Japanese Quail Lines

  • Karabag, Kemal;Balcioglu, Murat Soner;Karli, Taki;Alkan, Sezai
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.1696-1701
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    • 2016
  • Japanese quail is still used as a model for poultry research because of their usefulness as laying, meat, and laboratory animals. Microsatellite markers are the most widely used molecular markers, due to their relative ease of scoring and high levels of polymorphism. The objective of the research was to determine genetic diversity and population genetic structures of selected Japanese quail lines (high body weight 1 [HBW1], HBW2, low body weight [LBW], and layer [L]) throughout 15th generations and an unselected control (C). A total of 69 individuals from five quail lines were genotyped by fifteen microsatellite markers. When analyzed profiles of the markers the observed ($H_o$) and expected ($H_e$) heterozygosity ranged from 0.04 (GUJ0027) to 0.64 (GUJ0087) and 0.21 (GUJ0027) to 0.84 (GUJ0037), respectively. Also, $H_o$ and $H_e$ were separated from 0.30 (L and LBW) to 0.33 (C and HBW2) and from 0.52 (HBW2) to 0.58 (L and LBW), respectively. The mean polymorphic information content (PIC) ranged from 0.46 (HBW2) to 0.52 (L). Approximately half of the markers were informative ($PIC{\geq}0.50$). Genetic distances were calculated from 0.09 (HBW1 and HBW2) to 0.33 (C and L). Phylogenetic dendrogram showed that the quail lines were clearly defined by the microsatellite markers used here. Bayesian model-based clustering supported the results from the phylogenetic tree. These results reflect that the set of studied markers can be used effectively to capture the magnitude of genetic variability in selected Japanese quail lines. Also, to identify markers and alleles which are specific to the divergence lines, further generations of selection are required.

Robust Particle Filter Based Route Inference for Intelligent Personal Assistants on Smartphones (스마트폰상의 지능형 개인화 서비스를 위한 강인한 파티클 필터 기반의 사용자 경로 예측)

  • Baek, Haejung;Park, Young Tack
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.190-202
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    • 2015
  • Much research has been conducted on location-based intelligent personal assistants that can understand a user's intention by learning the user's route model and then inferring the user's destinations and routes using data of GPS and other sensors in a smartphone. The intelligence of the location-based personal assistant is contingent on the accuracy and efficiency of the real-time predictions of the user's intended destinations and routes by processing movement information based on uncertain sensor data. We propose a robust particle filter based on Dynamic Bayesian Network model to infer the user's routes. The proposed robust particle filter includes a particle generator to supplement the incorrect and incomplete sensor information, an efficient switching function and an weight function to reduce the computation complexity as well as a resampler to enhance the accuracy of the particles. The proposed method improves the accuracy and efficiency of determining a user's routes and destinations.

Assessment of genetic diversity of Prangos fedtschenkoi (Apiaceae) and its conservation status based on ISSR markers

  • Mustafina, Feruza U.;Kim, Eun Hye;Son, Sung-Won;Turginov, Orzimat T.;Chang, Kae Sun;Choi, Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2017
  • Prangos fedtschenkoi (Regel et Schmalh.) Korovin (Apiaceae) is an endemic species for mountainous Middle Asia, which is both a rare and useful plant. Organic extractions from this species are being used in pharmaceutics and cosmetology. In recent years, P. fedtschenkoi distribution area has considerably decreased, presumably, resulting from human activities such as agriculture, construction works, overgrazing and collection from wild for pharmaceutic purposes. Six populations were found in Uzbekistan and their genetic divergence and differentiation were studied with 10 inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers, selected out of 101. Totally 166 amplified ISSR fragments (loci) were revealed, of which 164 were polymorphic. Relatively moderate level of polymorphism was found at population level with polymorphic bands ranging from 27.71% to 47.59%. Mean P = 39.05%, $N_a=1.40$, $N_e=1.25$, S.I. = 0.21, and $H_e=0.14$ were revealed for all loci across six populations. AMOVA showed higher variation among populations (62%) than within them (38%). The Bayesian model determined 5 clusters, or genetic groups. The posteriori distribution of the Theta II estimator detected full model identifying high inbreeding, intensified by low gene flow (Nm = 0.3954). Mantel test confined population 6 as distinct cluster corresponding to geographic remoteness (R = 0.5137, $p{\leq}0.005$). Results were used as the bases for developing conserve measures to restore populations.

Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Korea Due to Time Varying Monetary Policy Stance (거시경제 및 통화정책 기조 변화가 통화정책의 유효성에 미친 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Bong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2014
  • This paper has studied the monetary policy in Korea with a time varying VAR model using four key macroeconomic variables. First, inclusion of the exchange rate was a crucial factor in evaluating Korean monetary policy since the monetary policy demonstrated sensitivity to exchange rate movements during the crisis periods of both the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Second, a specification of the stochastic volatilities in TVP-VAR model is important in explaining excessive movements of all variables in the sample. The overall moderation of variables in 2000s was more or less due to a reduction of the stochastic volatilities but also somewhat due to the macroeconomic fundamental structures captured by impulse response functons. Third, the degree of the monetary policy effectiveness of inflation was mitigated in recent periods but with increased persistence. Lastly, the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization has advanced ever since the inflation targeting scheme was adopted. However, there still seems to be a room for improvement in this aspect since the degree of the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization was relatively weaker than to output stabilization.

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Elastic modulus of ASR-affected concrete: An evaluation using Artificial Neural Network

  • Nguyen, Thuc Nhu;Yu, Yang;Li, Jianchun;Gowripalan, Nadarajah;Sirivivatnanon, Vute
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.541-553
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    • 2019
  • Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) in concrete can induce degradation in its mechanical properties, leading to compromised serviceability and even loss in load capacity of concrete structures. Compared to other properties, ASR often affects the modulus of elasticity more significantly. Several empirical models have thus been established to estimate elastic modulus reduction based on the ASR expansion only for condition assessment and capacity evaluation of the distressed structures. However, it has been observed from experimental studies in the literature that for any given level of ASR expansion, there are significant variations on the measured modulus of elasticity. In fact, many other factors, such as cement content, reactive aggregate type, exposure condition, additional alkali and concrete strength, have been commonly known in contribution to changes of concrete elastic modulus due to ASR. In this study, an artificial intelligent model using artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed for the first time to provide an innovative approach for evaluation of the elastic modulus of ASR-affected concrete, which is able to take into account contribution of several influence factors. By intelligently fusing multiple information, the proposed ANN model can provide an accurate estimation of the modulus of elasticity, which shows a significant improvement from empirical based models used in current practice. The results also indicate that expansion due to ASR is not the only factor contributing to the stiffness change, and various factors have to be included during the evaluation.

Difference State Number of CHMM Model to Improve the Performance of SCCRS (한국어 음성/문자 공용인식기의 성능향상을 위한 가변 상태수 CHMM모델의 구성)

  • Suk Soo-Young;Kim Min-Jung;Kim Kwang-Soo;Jung Ho-Youl;Chung Hyun-Yeol
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • spring
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    • pp.95-98
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    • 2002
  • 문자인식 또는 음성인식을 위해 사용되어지는 CHMM(Continuous Hidden Markov Model)모델은 일반적으로 모델의 상태수를 일정한 수로 고정하는 고정 상태수 모델 구조를 가지고 있으나, 이는 개별적인 인식 단위의 특성을 고려하지 않은 경우로써 이를 고려한 가변 상태수 모델을 사용할 경우 인식률 향상을 기대할 수 있다. 개별적인 인식 단위에 적합한 모델 상태수를 결정하는 방법으로 파라미터 히스토그램 방법과, BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion)방법을 사용하는 것이 대표적이다. 이들 방법들은 개별적인 인식단위의 우도값만을 향상시키기 위한 방법으로 전체인식률과 직접적으로 비례하지는 않는다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 고정 상태수를 갖는 모델 적용 방법과 인식단위별 상태수 변화에 따른 인식률을 비교하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 각 모델별 상태수를 달리하는 가변 상태수 CHMM모델 구성 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 가변상태수 모델의 유효성을 확인하기 위해 음성/문자 공용인식기 중 필기체 문자 인식에 적용한 결과 제안한 LM(Local Maximum)으로 구성된 가변 상태수 모델이 MLE와 BIC로 구성된 모델과 인식률 면에서는 거의 동일한 성능을 유지하면서 전체 상태수는 MLE 모델에 비해 $31\%$, BIC로 구성된 모델에 비해 $22\%$ 감소를 나타내어 제안한 모델의 유효성을 확인할 수 있었다.

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