• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.572-578
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• 2008

We analyze the search space considered by the previously proposed R-CORE method for learning Bayesian network structures of large scale. Experimental analysis on the search space of the method is also shown. The R-CORE method reduces the search space considered for Bayesian network structures by recursively clustering the random variables and restricting the orders between clusters. We show the R-CORE method has a similar search space with the previous method in the worst case but has a much less search space in the average case. By considering much less search space in the average case, the R-CORE method shows less tendency of overfitting in learning Bayesian network structures compared to the previous method.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.31 no.12
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• pp.1591-1601
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• 2004

Clustering, a technique for the analysis of the genes, organizes the patterns into groups by the similarity of the dataset and has been used for identifying the functions of the genes in the cluster or analyzing the functions of unknown gones. Since the genes usually belong to multiple functional families, fuzzy clustering methods are more appropriate than the conventional hard clustering methods which assign a sample to a group. In this paper, a Bayesian validation method is proposed to evaluate the fuzzy partitions effectively. Bayesian validation method is a probability-based approach, selecting a fuzzy partition with the largest posterior probability given the dataset. At first, the proposed Bayesian validation method is compared to the 4 representative conventional fuzzy cluster validity measures in 4 well-known datasets where foray c-means algorithm is used. Then, we have analyzed the results of Saccharomyces cell cycle expression data evaluated by the proposed method.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.505-516
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• 2012

The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1448-1452
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• 2010

최근 기상변동성 증가 및 기후변화 영향으로 수문순환과정이 과거와는 다른 양상으로 전개되고 있으며 전반적으로 극치사상의 빈도 및 강도의 증가현상이 지배적이다. 이러한 영향을 정량적으로 검토하기 위해서 경향성분석 방법 등이 도입되어 극치수문사상의 변동경향을 평가하는데 이용되고 있다. 대표적인 방법으로 선형회귀분석, Mann-Kendall 경향성 분석 등이 있으나 기본적인 가정(assumption)의 제약으로 극치수문자료 계열의 특성을 효과적으로 분석하는데 무리가 있다. 대표적이고 일반적으로 적용되는 선형회귀분석의 경우 자료가 정규분포(normal distribution)의 특성을 가질 때 유효한 방법으로서 극치수문자료와 같이 Heavy Tail를 가지는 분포특성을 표현하는 데는 무리가 따른다. 이밖에도 기존 선형회귀분석을 극치수문자료에 적용할 경우 추정된 결과를 수자원설계의 관심사항인 빈도해석 등에 직접적으로 연계시켜 해석할 수 없는 단점이 있다. 이는 자료계열의 분포특성을 정규분포로 가정하기 때문에 발생하는 문제로서 극치수문자료계열의 분포 특성을 반영할 수 있는 방법론의 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 점을 개선하기 위해서 극치분포(extreme distribution)를 선형회귀분석에 적용하는 비정상성빈도해석(nonstationary frequency analysis) 방법론의 개념을 제시하고자 한다. 비정상성빈도해석을 위해서 Bayesian 기법이 도입되며 Bayesian 기법의 특성상 관련변수들이 사후분포(posterior distribution)로 귀결되기 때문에 경향성에 대한 정량적이고 확률적인 분석이 가능한 장점이 있다. 본 연구를 통해 개발된 방법론은 국내외 주요 강수지점에 대해서 적용되며 경향성, 분포특성, 빈도별 강수량에 대한 체계적인 분석이 이루어진다.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.169-174
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• 2018

In general, the methods of the analysis of variance(ANOVA) for the continuous data and the chi-square test for the discrete data are used for statistical analysis of the effect and the association. In multidimensional data, analysis of hierarchical structure is required and statistical linear model is adopted. The structure of the linear model requires the normality of the data. A multidimensional categorical data analysis methods are used for causal relations, interactions, and correlation analysis. In this paper, Bayesian network model using probability distribution is proposed to reduce analysis procedure and analyze interactions and causal relationships in categorical data analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.75-87
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• 2017

In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.9-18
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• 2016

In the Heckman-Meyers model, which is frequently referred by IAA, Swiss Solvency Test, EU Solvency II, the assumption of parameter distribution is key factor. While in theory Bayesian analysis somewhat reflects parameter uncertainty using prior distribution, it is often the case where both Heckman-Meyers and Bayesian are necessary to better manage the parameter uncertainty. Therefore, this paper proposes the use of Bayesian H-M CRM, a combination of Heckman-Meyers model and Bayesian, and analyzes its efficiency.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.523-541
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• 2014

We apply a Bayesian estimation procedure to the analysis of roll call voting records on 2,389 bills processed during the 18th Korean National Assembly. The analysis of roll calls yields useful tools for to combining the measurement of legislative preference with the models of legislative behavior. The current Bayesian procedure is extremely exible, applicable to any legislative setting, irrespective of the extremism of the legislator's voting history or the number of roll calls available for analysis. It can be applied to any legislative settings, providing a useful solution to many statistical problems inherent in the analysis of roll call voting records. We rst estimate the ideal points of all members of the 18th National Assembly and their condence intervals. Subsequently, using the estimated ideal points, we examine the factional disparity within each major party using the estimated ideal points. Our results clearly suggest that there exists a meaningful ideological spectrum within each party. We also show how the Bayesian procedure can easily be extended to accommodate theoretically interesting theoretical models of legislative behavior. More specically, we demonstrate how the estimated posterior probabilities can be used for identifying pivotal legislators.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.9
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• pp.753-766
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• 2014

The future mean sea level rise (MSLR) due to climate change in major harbors of Korean Peninsula has been estimated by some statistical methods in this article. Firstly, Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test to find some trend in the observed long-term tidal data has been performed and also Bayesian change point analysis has been used also to detect the location of change points and their magnitude quantitatively. Especially, in this study, the results from Bayesian change point analysis have been applied to combine 4 future MSLR scenario projections with local MSLR data at 5 tidal gauges. This proposed procedure including Bayesian change point analysis results can improve the step for the determination of starting years of future MLSR scenario projections with 18.6-year lunar node tidal cycle and effectively consider local characteristics at each gauge. The final results by the proposed procedure in this study have shown that the future MSLR in Jeju region (Jeju tidal gauge) is in the largest increment and also the future MSLRs in Western region (Boryeong tidal gauge) and Southern region (Busan tidal gauge) are in the second largest one. Finally, it has been shown that the future MSLRs in Southern region (Yeosu tidal gauge) and Eastern region (Sokcho tidal gauge) seem to be in the relatively smallest growth among 5 gauges.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.27-33
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• 2010

This paper applies Bayesian Markov inferred localization techniques for determining ZigBee mobile device's position. To evaluate its accuracy, we compare it with conventional technique, map-based localization. While the map-based localization technique referring to database of predefined locations and their RSSI data, the Bayesian Markov inferred localization is influenced by changes of time, direction and distance. All determinations are drawn from the estimation of Received Signal Strength (RSS) using ZigBee modules. Our results show the relationship between RSSI and distance in indoor ZigBee environment and higher localization accuracy of Bayesian Markov localization technique. We conclude that map-based localization is not suitable for flexible changes in indoors because of its predefined condition setup and lower accuracy comparing to distance-based Markov Chain inference localization system.