Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A development of hierarchical bayesian model for changing point analysis at watershed scale

유역단위에서의 연강수량의 변동점 분석을 위한 계층적 Bayesian 분석기법 개발

  • Kim, Jin-Guk (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Yoon-Hee (Daegu-Gyeongbuk Regional Division, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 김진국 (전북대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김진영 (전북대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김윤희 (한국수자원공사 대구경북지역본부) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2016.09.27
  • Accepted : 2016.12.19
  • Published : 2017.02.28
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Abstract

In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

최근 기후변화에 따른 기상변동성 증가로 기존 한반도의 기상패턴과 다른 이상강우 현상이 증가하고 있다. 이상강우현상에 따른 수문패턴의 변화는 수자원 계획을 수립하는데 있어 불확실성을 가중시키기고 있다. 이러한 점에서 수문 시계열의 변화양상을 효과적으로 인지할 수 있으며, 유역단위에서 일관된 변화를 평가할 수 있는 변동점 분석 개발이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존 변동점 분석방법에 계층적 베이지안(Hierarchical Bayesian) 기법을 연계하여 유역단위에서 계층적 변동점 분석이 가능한 모형을 개발하였다. 우리나라에 40년 이상 관측된 기상청 강수자료를 활용하여 연강수량 자료를 구축하였으며, 본 연구를 통해 개발된 모형의 적합성을 평가하였다. 분석결과, 1990년대의 강수자료의 변화 양상을 정량적으로 확인할 수 있었으며, 과거에 비해 강수의 증가 특성을 확인할 수 있었다. 최종적으로 추정된 수문자료의 변화시점 전후의 재해석자료를 이용하여 한반도 주변의 강수량과 해수면기압의 Anomaly를 분석해본 결과 변동점을 기준으로 강수량과 해수면기압의 명확한 차이를 확인하였다.

Keywords

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