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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.9.753

Estimation of the Regional Future Sea Level Rise Using Long-term Tidal Data in the Korean Peninsula  

Lee, Cheol-Eung (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Kim, Sang Ug (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Lee, Yeong Seob (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.47, no.9, 2014 , pp. 753-766 More about this Journal
Abstract
The future mean sea level rise (MSLR) due to climate change in major harbors of Korean Peninsula has been estimated by some statistical methods in this article. Firstly, Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test to find some trend in the observed long-term tidal data has been performed and also Bayesian change point analysis has been used also to detect the location of change points and their magnitude quantitatively. Especially, in this study, the results from Bayesian change point analysis have been applied to combine 4 future MSLR scenario projections with local MSLR data at 5 tidal gauges. This proposed procedure including Bayesian change point analysis results can improve the step for the determination of starting years of future MLSR scenario projections with 18.6-year lunar node tidal cycle and effectively consider local characteristics at each gauge. The final results by the proposed procedure in this study have shown that the future MSLR in Jeju region (Jeju tidal gauge) is in the largest increment and also the future MSLRs in Western region (Boryeong tidal gauge) and Southern region (Busan tidal gauge) are in the second largest one. Finally, it has been shown that the future MSLRs in Southern region (Yeosu tidal gauge) and Eastern region (Sokcho tidal gauge) seem to be in the relatively smallest growth among 5 gauges.
Keywords
climate change; MSLR scenario; Bayesian change point analysis; starting year;
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