• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1017-1028
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• 2014

잘 알려져 있는 것처럼 일반적인 베이즈 추정량(Bayes estimator)과 경험적 베이즈 추정량(empirical Bayes estimator)은 모수를 추정하는데 있어서 오차를 과다축소하는 단점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 이러한 단점을 극복하기 위하여 constrained 베이즈 추정량이 일차 적률과 이차 적률을 일치시키는 성질을 만족시키며 제안되었다. 또한 평균 제곱오차 함수와 같은 전통적인 손실함수에서는 추정의 정확성만을 고려하는 특징을 가지고 있기 때문에, 추정의 정확성과 정합성을 동시에 고려하는 균형 손실함수가 제안되었다. 이러한 이유로 인하여 균형손실 함수하에서의 제한적 베이즈 추정량의 활용이 손해 보험의 가격 산출에 제안되는 것은 타당하다. 그러나 대부분의 연구는 추정의 문제에만 집중하는 경향이 있으며. 이는 새롭게 제안되는 특정 손실함수하에서의 constrained 베이즈 추정량과 constrained empirical 베이즈 추정량의 베이즈 위험의 계산이 어렵다는 점에서 기인한다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 베이즈 추정량들에 대한 베이즈 위험을 서로 다른 두 손실함수하에서 비교하였으며, 그 대상은 자동차 보험 산업에서의 위험도 추정 분야이다. 또한 자동차 보험 산업의 실제 사고 데이터를 이용하여 새롭게 제안된 베이즈 추정량의 베이즈 위험을 비교함으로써 그 효용성을 입증하였다.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.55-79
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• 2015

It is well known that using any additional information in the estimation of unknown parameters with new sample of observations diminishes the sampling units needed and minimizes the risk of new estimators. There are many rational reasons to assure that the existence of additional information in practice and there exists many practical cases in which additional information is available in the form of target value (initial value) about the unknown parameters. This article is described the problem of how the prior initial value about the unknown parameters can be utilized and combined with classical Bayes estimator to get a new combination of Bayes estimator and prior value to improve the properties of the new combination. In this article, two classes of Bayes-shrinkage and preliminary test Bayes-shrinkage estimators are proposed for the scale parameter of exponential distribution. The bias, risk and risk ratio expressions are derived and studied. The performance of the proposed classes of estimators is studied for different choices of constants engaged in the estimators. The comparisons, conclusions and recommendations are demonstrated.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.95-110
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• 1996

We consider the question of efficiency of the Bayes sequential procedure with respect to the optimal fixed sample size Bayes procedure in a simple vs. simple testing problem for data coming from a general nonregular density b(.theta.)h(x)l(x < .theta.). Efficiency is defined in two different ways in these caiculations. Also, the minimax sequential risk (and minimax sequential stratage) is studied as a function of the cost of sampling.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2002

A Bayes estimator of the scale parameter in an exponential distribution will be considered by a LINEX error, then the risk of the Bayes estimator using a LINEX loss will be compared with that of a Bayes estimator using a square error.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.487-500
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• 1999

We propose a class of hierarchical Bayes estimators of the error variance under the relative squared error loss in balanced fixed-effects two-way analysis of variance models. Also we provide analytic expressions for the risk improvement of the hierarchical Bayes estimators over multiples of the error sum of squares. Using these expressions we identify a subclass of the hierarchical Bayes estimators each member of which dominates the best multiple of the error sum of squares which is known to be minimax. Numerical values of the percentage risk improvement are given in some special cases.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.261-274
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• 2014

In this paper we develop Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of the finite population mean with the assumption of posterior linearity rather than normality of the superpopulation under the balanced loss function. We compare the performance of the optimal Bayes estimator with ones of the classical sample mean and the usual Bayes estimator under the squared error loss with respect to the posterior expected losses, risks and Bayes risks when the underlying distribution is normal as well as when they are binomial and Poisson.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 2001년도 하계종합학술대회 논문집(4)
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• pp.159-162
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• 2001

In this Paper, a new multi-sensor single-target tracking method in cluttered environment is proposed. Unlike the established methods such as probabilistic data association filter (PDAF), the proposed method intends to reflect the information in detection phase into parameters in tracking so as to reduce uncertainty due to clutter. This is achieved by first modifying the Bayes risk in Bayesian detection criterion to incorporate the likelihood of measurements from multiple sensors. The final estimate is then computed by taking a linear combination of the likelihood and the estimate of measurements. We develop the procedure and discuss the results from representative simulations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.235-243
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• 2014

Constrained Bayesian estimates overcome the over shrinkness toward the mean which usual Bayes and empirical Bayes estimates produce by matching first and second empirical moments; subsequently, a constrained Bayes estimate is recommended to use in case the research objective is to produce a histogram of the estimates considering the location and dispersion. The well-known squared error loss function exclusively emphasizes the precision of estimation and may lead to biased estimators. Thus, the balanced loss function is suggested to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. In insurance pricing, the accurate location estimates of risk and also dispersion estimates of each risk group should be considered under proper loss function. In this paper, by applying these two ideas, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates and balanced loss function will be discussed; in addition, application effectiveness will be proved through an analysis of real insurance accident data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.71-80
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• 2007

The present paper investigates estimation of a scale parameter of a gamma distribution using a loss function that reflects both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. The Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators rotative to balanced loss functions (BLFs) are derived and optimality of some estimators are studied.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.2-11
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• 1985

We study some Bayes esimators of the reliability of k out of m stress-strength model under quadratic loss and various prior distributions. We obtain Bayes estimators, Bayes risk, predictive bounds and asymtotic distribution of Bayes estimator. We investigate behaviours of Bayes estimator in moderate samples.