• Title/Summary/Keyword: Baseline scenario

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Towards Improving Causality Mining using BERT with Multi-level Feature Networks

  • Ali, Wajid;Zuo, Wanli;Ali, Rahman;Rahman, Gohar;Zuo, Xianglin;Ullah, Inam
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.3230-3255
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    • 2022
  • Causality mining in NLP is a significant area of interest, which benefits in many daily life applications, including decision making, business risk management, question answering, future event prediction, scenario generation, and information retrieval. Mining those causalities was a challenging and open problem for the prior non-statistical and statistical techniques using web sources that required hand-crafted linguistics patterns for feature engineering, which were subject to domain knowledge and required much human effort. Those studies overlooked implicit, ambiguous, and heterogeneous causality and focused on explicit causality mining. In contrast to statistical and non-statistical approaches, we present Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) integrated with Multi-level Feature Networks (MFN) for causality recognition, called BERT+MFN for causality recognition in noisy and informal web datasets without human-designed features. In our model, MFN consists of a three-column knowledge-oriented network (TC-KN), bi-LSTM, and Relation Network (RN) that mine causality information at the segment level. BERT captures semantic features at the word level. We perform experiments on Alternative Lexicalization (AltLexes) datasets. The experimental outcomes show that our model outperforms baseline causality and text mining techniques.

Analysis of Aircraft Noise at Gimpo International Airport according to Changes in International Flight Operations (국제선 운영변화에 따른 김포국제공항의 항공기 소음 분석)

  • Hyunsoo Cho;Jae Sik Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.116-125
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    • 2023
  • Gimpo International Airport is a strategically utilized airport based on government policy, but there are many residents living around the airport, so it is very sensitive to changes in airport operation. In the past, similar noise results were obtained for aircraft noise at Gimpo International Airport despite changes in aircraft types and an increase in the number of aircraft operating, and recently ICAO proposed a low-noise aircraft noise standard (Ch.14). Since the new standard has a noise reduction effect of up to 15dB compared to existing aircraft noise, ICAO and Europe EASA predict that future aircraft noise will be reduced if the latest technologies such as low-noise aircraft are applied. Therefore, this study establishes the aircraft operation performance and measured noise of Gimpo International Airport in 2022 as a baseline scenario, noise changes using various scenarios of introduction of low-noise aircraft, operation of mid-to-long-distance routes, and changes in future air traffic demand were analyzed using simulation.

An Analysis of the Impact of International Soybean Price Changes on Domestic Soybean Market and Soybean Food Self-Sufficiency Rate: A Partial Equilibrium Model Approach (국제 대두가격 변동이 국내 식용 콩 시장과 콩 식량자급률에 미치는 영향 분석: 부분균형모형을 이용한 접근)

  • Kim, Gwon-Hyung;Kim, In-Seck
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.137-159
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    • 2024
  • Major crop prices have been raised significantly in recent years by COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and weather-induced reductions in South American soybean production by unfavoured weather in 2022. Rising international crop prices are likely to destabilize food security in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign crops. This study analyzed the impact of soybean import price changes on the domestic soybean market and soybean food self-sufficiency rate from 2024 to 2029 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. According to the scenario analysis results, if the import prices rise by 10% compared to the baseline, the soybean food self-sufficiency rate would increase by 1.33% in 2024, but it is expected to decrease to -0.58% in 2029 due to the continuous decrease in production. The results of this study are expected to be used as valuable information for policy authorities in establishing policies related to improving food self-sufficiency.

Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed (미래 기후변화와 토지이용변화가 안성천 공도 도시성장 유역의 수문에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Da Rae;Lee, Yong Gwan;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.

Projecting Future Paddy Irrigation Demands in Korea Using High-resolution Climate Simulations (고해상도 기후자료를 이용한 우리나라의 논 관개요구량 예측)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2011
  • The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

Analysis of Paddy Rice Water Footprint under Climate Change Using AquaCrop (AquaCrop을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 미래 논벼 물발자국 변화 분석)

  • Oh, Bu-Yeong;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2017
  • Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and drought frequency. Climate change impact influences on water management and crop production. It is critical issue in agricultural industry. Rice is a staple cereal crop in South Korea and Korea uses a ponding system for its paddy fields which requires a significant amount of water. In addition, water supply has inter-relationship with crop production which indicates water productivity. Therefore, it is important to assess overall impacts of climate change on water resource and crop production. A water footprint concept is an indicator which shows relationship between water use and crop yield. In addition, it generally composed of three components depending on water resources: green, blue, grey water. This study analyzed the change trend of water footprint of paddy rice under the climate change. The downscaled climate data from HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 8.5 scenario was applied as future periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), and historical climate data was set to base line (1990s). Depending on agro-climatic zones, Suwon and Jeonju were selected for study area. A yield of paddy rice was simulated by using FAO-AquaCrop 5.0, which is a water-driven crop model. Model was calibrated by adjusting parameters and was validated by Mann-Whitney U test statistically. The means of water footprint were projected increase by 55 % (2020s), 51 % (2050s) and 48 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of $767m^2/ton$ in Suwon. In case of Jeonju, total water footprint was projected to increase by 46 % (2020s), 45 % (2050s), 12 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of $765m^2/ton$. The results are expected to be useful for paddy water management and operation of water supply system and apply in establishing long-term policies for agricultural water resources.

The Economic Impact of Government Purchases on the Price Volatility of Korean Dried Red Pepper (건고추 정부수매의 가격안정화효과에 대한 사후영향평가분석)

  • Park, Su-Yeon;Kim, In-Seck
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - Unstable vegetable prices have been one of the major concerns in Korean agricultural and food marketing system. The Korean government has implemented a number of policy instruments, including government purchasing programs in order to alleviate fluctuations in vegetable prices. The economic impact of policy instruments has been assessed based on the average monthly price change rate before and after the implementation of the policy. However, this approach failed to provide a net impact of policy measures on price stabilization in the vegetable markets, as policy impacts could not be successfully distinguished from other effects on price changes in the vegetable market. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the net impact of the government purchasing program on the price volatility of dried red pepper which is considered one of the major vegetables in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - This study develops a monthly dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean dried red pepper market. Behavioral equations in the model were estimated by OLS and synthetic method based on the annual and monthly time series data from 1993 to 2015. The model is first simulated to yield actual dried red pepper market conditions in 2015 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming that there were no government purchases of dried red pepper in 2015. Results - According to the ex-post scenario analysis using the developed model, without the government procurements in 2015, the average monthly price change rate and the value of coefficient of variation of dried red pepper in 2015 would be respectably 7.9 percent and 0.10. It is relatively higher than the actual average monthly price change rate and the value of coefficient of variation of dried red pepper in 2015 which were respectively 1.7 percent and 0.06. Conclusions - The ex-post simulation results in this study shows that if there were no government purchases of dried red pepper in 2015, the dried red pepper market would have had much higher volatile price movements. The results of this study would provide useful information for future price stabilization policy of vegetable markets in Korea.

An Economic Feasibility Study of AR CDM project in North Korea (북한 지역을 대상으로 한 조림 CDM 사업의 경제적 타당성 연구)

  • Han, Ki Joo;Youn, Yeo-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.3
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    • pp.235-244
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    • 2007
  • Potentials of AR CDM project in North Korea are assessed and feasible land area for AR CDM project is estimated. According to our estimation, There could be 515,000 hectares of forest lands deforested before 1990 in North Korea and 8,854 hectares at the regional level of Gae-sung City, which are eligible for AR CDM project, based on researches of satellite image analyses conducted from 1980's to 1990's. A baseline scenario assumed 44.73 tones of carbon stored in soil per hectare with no vegetation above ground remained during the project period following the default value of IPCC's Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF considering soil structure, climate and land use of the project area. The scenario also assumes that black rocust (Robinia pseudoacacia) is planted and the CDM project is implemented for 20 years. The costs for producing greenhouse gases CER (certified emission reduction) credits include costs of tree planting and forest management, and costs of project negotiation and transactions for issuing the credits. It is estimated that 376 tones of carbon dioxide per hectare can be accumulated and 503 temporary CER credits per hectare and 265 long-term CER credits per hectare could be produced during the project period. It is estimated to cost US$ 4.04 and US$ 7.67 to provide one unit of temporary credit and long-term credit, respectively. These values can be regarded as the cost of conferring emission commitment of a country or a private entity. However, it is not clear which option is better economically because the replacement periods are different in these two cases.

A study on the regional climate change scenario for impact assessment on water resources (수자원 영향평가에 활용 가능한 지역기후변화 시나리오 연구)

  • Im, Eun-Soon;Kwon, Won-Tae;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.12 s.173
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    • pp.1043-1056
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    • 2006
  • Our ultimate purpose is to investigate the potential change in regional surface climate due to the global warming and to produce higher quality regional surface climate information over the Korean peninsula for comprehensive impact assessment. Toward this purpose, we carried out two 30-year long experiments, one for present day conditions (covering the period 1971-2000) and one for near future climate conditions (covering the period 2021-2050) with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. In order to obtain the confidence in a future climate projection, we first verify the model basic performance of how the reference simulation is realistic in comparison with a fairly dense observation network. We then examine the possible future changes in mean climate state as well as in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events to be derived by difference between climate condition as a baseline and future simulated climate states with increased greenhouse gas. Emphasis in this study is placed on the high-resolution spatial/temporal aspects of the climate change scenarios under different climate settings over Korea generated by complex topography and coastlines that are relevant on a regional scale.

Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology for an Urbanizing Watershed (기후변화와 토지이용변화가 도시화 진행 유역수문에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Ahn, So Ra;Jang, Cheol Hee;Lee, Jun Woo;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.567-577
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    • 2015
  • Climate and land use changes have impact on availability water resource by hydrologic cycle change. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic behavior by the future potential climate and land use changes in Anseongcheon watershed ($371.1km^2$) using SWAT model. For climate change scenario, the HadGEM-RA (the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3-Regional Atmosphere model) RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were used. The mean temperature increased up to $4.2^{\circ}C$ and the precipitation showed maximum 21.2% increase for 2080s RCP 8.5 scenario comparing with the baseline (1990-2010). For the land use change scenario, the Conservation of Land Use its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model was applied for 3 scenarios (logarithmic, linear, exponential) according to urban growth. The 2100 urban area of the watershed was predicted by 9.4%, 20.7%, and 35% respectively for each scenario. As the climate change impact, the evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (ST) showed maximum change of 20.6% in 2080s RCP 8.5 and 25.7% in 2080s RCP 4.5 respectively. As the land use change impact, the ET and ST showed maximum change of 3.7% in 2080s logarithmic and 2.9% in 2080s linear urban growth respectively. By the both climate and land use change impacts, the ET and ST changed 19.2% in 2040s RCP 8.5 and exponential scenarios and 36.1% in 2080s RCP 4.5 and linear scenarios respectively. The results of the research are expected to understand the changing water resources of watershed quantitatively by hydrological environment condition change in the future.