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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.2.141

Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed  

Kim, Da Rae (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Lee, Yong Gwan (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Lee, Ji Wan (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Kim, Seong Joon (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.51, no.2, 2018 , pp. 141-150 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.
Keywords
SWAT; Land use change; CLUE-s; Climate change; RCP;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 8  (Citation Analysis)
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