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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2015.35.3.0567

Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology for an Urbanizing Watershed  

Ahn, So Ra (Konkuk University)
Jang, Cheol Hee (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
Lee, Jun Woo (National Disaster Management Institute)
Kim, Seong Joon (Konkuk University)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.35, no.3, 2015 , pp. 567-577 More about this Journal
Abstract
Climate and land use changes have impact on availability water resource by hydrologic cycle change. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic behavior by the future potential climate and land use changes in Anseongcheon watershed ($371.1km^2$) using SWAT model. For climate change scenario, the HadGEM-RA (the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3-Regional Atmosphere model) RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were used. The mean temperature increased up to $4.2^{\circ}C$ and the precipitation showed maximum 21.2% increase for 2080s RCP 8.5 scenario comparing with the baseline (1990-2010). For the land use change scenario, the Conservation of Land Use its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model was applied for 3 scenarios (logarithmic, linear, exponential) according to urban growth. The 2100 urban area of the watershed was predicted by 9.4%, 20.7%, and 35% respectively for each scenario. As the climate change impact, the evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (ST) showed maximum change of 20.6% in 2080s RCP 8.5 and 25.7% in 2080s RCP 4.5 respectively. As the land use change impact, the ET and ST showed maximum change of 3.7% in 2080s logarithmic and 2.9% in 2080s linear urban growth respectively. By the both climate and land use change impacts, the ET and ST changed 19.2% in 2040s RCP 8.5 and exponential scenarios and 36.1% in 2080s RCP 4.5 and linear scenarios respectively. The results of the research are expected to understand the changing water resources of watershed quantitatively by hydrological environment condition change in the future.
Keywords
SWAT; CLUE-s; RCP; Land Use Change; Runoff Characteristic;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
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