Abstract
Major crop prices have been raised significantly in recent years by COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and weather-induced reductions in South American soybean production by unfavoured weather in 2022. Rising international crop prices are likely to destabilize food security in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign crops. This study analyzed the impact of soybean import price changes on the domestic soybean market and soybean food self-sufficiency rate from 2024 to 2029 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. According to the scenario analysis results, if the import prices rise by 10% compared to the baseline, the soybean food self-sufficiency rate would increase by 1.33% in 2024, but it is expected to decrease to -0.58% in 2029 due to the continuous decrease in production. The results of this study are expected to be used as valuable information for policy authorities in establishing policies related to improving food self-sufficiency.