• Title/Summary/Keyword: Association model

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Monthly temperature forecasting using large-scale climate teleconnections and multiple regression models (대규모 기후 원격상관성 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 월 평균기온 예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Nam Won;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.731-745
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the monthly temperature of the Han River basin was predicted by statistical multiple regression models that use global climate indices and weather data of the target region as predictors. The optimal predictors were selected through teleconnection analysis between the monthly temperature and the preceding patterns of each climate index, and forecast models capable of predicting up to 12 months in advance were constructed by combining the selected predictors and cross-validating the past period. Fore each target month, 1000 optimized models were derived and forecast ranges were presented. As a result of analyzing the predictability of monthly temperature from January 1992 to December 2020, PBIAS was -1.4 to -0.7%, RSR was 0.15 to 0.16, NSE was 0.98, and r was 0.99, indicating a high goodness-of-fit. The probability of each monthly observation being included in the forecast range was about 64.4% on average, and by month, the predictability was relatively high in September, December, February, and January, and low in April, August, and March. The predicted range and median were in good agreement with the observations, except for some periods when temperature was dramatically lower or higher than in normal years. The quantitative temperature forecast information derived from this study will be useful not only for forecasting changes in temperature in the future period (1 to 12 months in advance), but also in predicting changes in the hydro-ecological environment, including evapotranspiration highly correlated with temperature.

Carbon Mineralization in different Soils Cooperated with Barley Straw and Livestock Manure Compost Biochars (토양 종류별 보릿짚 및 가축분 바이오차 투입이 토양 탄소 무기화에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Do-Gyun;Lee, Jong-Mun;Choi, Eun-Jung;Gwon, Hyo-Suk;Lee, Hyoung-Seok;Park, Hye-Ran;Oh, Taek-Keun;Lee, Sun-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2022
  • Biochar is a carbon material produced through the pyrolysis of agricultural biomass with limited oxygen condition. It has been suggested to enhance the carbon sequestration and mineralization of soil carbon. Objective of this study was to investigate soil potential carbon mineralization and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in different soils cooperated with barely straw and livestock manure biochars in the closed chamber. The incubation was conducted during 49 days using a closed chamber. The treatments consisted of 2 different biochars that were originated from barley straw and livestock manure, and application amounts were 0, 5, 10 and 20 ton ha-1 with different soils as upland, protected cultivation, converted and reclaimed. The results indicated that the TC increased significantly in all soils after biochar application. Mineralization of soil carbon was well fitted for Kinetic first-order exponential rate model equation (P<0.001). Potential mineralization rate ranged from 8.7 to 15.5% and 8.2 to 16.5% in the barely straw biochar and livestock manure biochar treatments, respectively. The highest CO2 emission was 81.94 mg kg-1 in the upland soil, and it was more emitted CO2 for barely straw biochar application than its livestock biochar regardless of their application rates. Soil amendment of biochar is suitable for barely straw biochar regardless of application rates for mitigation of CO2 emission in the cropland.

A Study on the Level of Citizen Participation in Smart City Project (스마트도시사업 단계별 시민참여 수준 진단에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Ji-Ho;PARK, Joung-Woo;NAM, Kwang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2021
  • Based on the global smart city promotion trend, in 2018, the "Fourth Industrial Revolution Committee" selected "sustainability" and "people-centered" as keywords in relation to the direction of domestic smart city policy. Accordingly, the Living Lab program, which is an active citizen-centered innovation methodology, is applied to each stage of the domestic smart city construction project. Through the Living Lab program, and in collaboration with the public and experts, the smart city discovers local issues as it focuses on citizens, devises solutions to sustainable urban problems, and formulates a regional development plan that reflects the needs of citizens. However, compared to citizen participation in urban regeneration projects that have been operated for a relatively long time, participation in smart city projects was found to significantly differ in level and sustainability. Therefore, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the characteristics of citizen participation at each stage of an urban regeneration project and, based on Arnstein's "Participation Ladder" model, examined the level of citizen participation activities in the Living Lab program carried out in a smart city commercial area from 2018 to 2019. The results indicated that citizen participation activities in the Living Lab conducted in the smart city project had a great influence on selecting smart city services, which fit the needs of local residents, and on determining the technological level of services appropriate to the region based on a relatively high level of authority, such as selection of smart city services or composition of solutions. However, most of the citizen participation activities were halted after the project's completion due to the one-off recruitment of citizen participation groups for the smart city construction project only. On the other hand, citizens' participation activities in the field of urban regeneration were focused on local communities, and continuous operation and management measures were being drawn from the project planning stage to the operation stage after the project was completed. This study presented a plan to revitalize citizen participation for the realization of a more sustainable smart city through a comparison of the characteristics and an examination of the level of citizen participation in such urban regeneration and smart city projects.

Calculation of Soil Moisture and Evaporation on the Korean Peninsula using NASA LIS(Land Information System) (NASA LIS(Land Information System)을 이용한 한반도의 토양수분·증발산량 산출)

  • PARK, Gwang-Ha;YU, Wan-Sik;HWANG, Eui-Ho;JUNG, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.83-100
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    • 2020
  • This study evaluated the accuracy of soil moisture and evapotranspiration by calculating the hydrological parameters in Korean peninsula using Land Information System(LIS) developed by US NASA. We used Noah-MP surface model to calculate hydrological parameters, and used MERRA2(Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) for hydrological forcing data. And, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program(IGBP) and University of Maryland(UMD) land cover maps were applied to compare the output accuracy, and Automated Synoptic Observing System(ASOS) of KMA was used as ground observation data. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the output data, the correlation coefficient(CC), BIAS, and efficiency factor (NSE, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) were analyzed with soil moisture and evapotranspiration by ASOS ground observation data. As a result, the correlation coefficient of soil moisture using IGBP was 0.56 on average, and evapotranspiration was about 0.71. On the other hand, soil moisture using UMD was 0.68 on average and evapotranspiration was about 0.72, and the correlation coefficient by UMD was evaluated as high accuracy compared to the results by using IGBP. The correlation coefficient of soil moisture was an average of 0.68 and evapotranspiration was an average of 0.72 when MERRA2 was used as hydrological forcing data. On the other hand, the soil moisture applied with ASOS was an average of 0.66, and evapotranspiration was an average of 0.72. It is judged that the ASOS point data was reanalyzed as 0.65°× 0.5°grids, which is the same spatial resolution with MERRA2, resulting in differences in accuracy depending on the region.

Numerical analysis of morphological changes by opening gates of Sejong Weir (보 개방에 의한 하도의 지형변화 과정 수치모의 분석(세종보를 중심으로))

  • Jang, Chang-Lae;Baek, Tae Hyo;Kang, Taeun;Ock, Giyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.629-641
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a two-dimensional numerical model (Nays2DH) was applied to analyze the process of morphological changes in the river channel bed depending on the changes in the amount of flooding after fully opening the Sejong weir, which was constructed upstream of the Geum River. For this, numerical simulations were performed by assuming the flow conditions, such as a non-uniform flow (NF), unsteady flows (single flood event, SF), and a continuous flood event (CF). Here, in the cases of the SF and CF, the normalized hydrograph was calculated from real flood events, and then the hydrograph was reconfigured by the peak flow discharge according to the scenario, and then it was employed as the flow discharge at the upstream boundary condition. In this study, to quantitatively evaluate the morphological changes, we analyzed the time changes in the bed deformation the bed relief index (BRI), and we compared the aerial photographs of the study area and the numerical simulation results. As simulation results of the NF, when the steady flow discharge increases, the ratio of lower width to depth decreases and the speed of bar migration increases. The BRI initially increases, but the amount of change decreased with time. In addition, when the steady flow discharge increases, the BRI increased. In the case of SF, the speed of bar migration decreased with the change of the flow discharge. In terms of the morphological response to the peak flood discharge, the time lag also indicated. In other words, in the SF, the change of channel bed indicates a phase lag with respect to the hydraulic condition. In the result of numerical simulation of CF, the speed of bar migration depending on the peak flood discharges decreased exponentially despite the repeated flood occurrences. In addition, as in the result of SF, the phase lag indicated, and the speed of bar migration decreased exponentially. The BRI increased with time changes, but the rate of increase in the BRI was modest despite the continuous peak flooding. Through this study, the morphological changes based on the hydrological characteristics of the river were analyzed numerically, and the methodology suggested that a quantitative prediction for the river bed change according to the flow characteristic can be applied to the field.

Development and Implementation of a Process-Based Evaluation Program on School Space Design: Focusing on the Housing Life Area of Home Economics Curriculum in Middle School (학교 공간 디자인을 주제로 한 과정중심평가 프로그램 개발 및 실행: 중학교 가정교과 주생활 영역을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Eun Young;Park, Mi Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.81-101
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to develop and implement a process-based evaluation program with the theme of school space design in the housing area of the middle school home economics. In order to achieve For thispurpose, a process-based evaluation program based on the theme of school space design was developed following the ADDIE instructional design model, and the program was executed to a total of 93 students. A questionnaire survey and in-depth interview were conducted for the evaluation of the program. The results of this study are as follows. First, based on the results of a 2015-Revised Curriculum analysis, a school space design program evaluation plan was established, and two evaluation tasks were developed. Accordingly, scoring criteria were prepared and 8 evaluation materials for students and 2 evaluation materials for teachers were developed. A total of 9 sessions were developed for teaching and learning activities and evaluation-linked operation procedures to perform evaluation tasks. As a result of an expert validity test for the program, all items were verified to be appropriate in content validity and content composition with an average of 3.6 to 4 points (4 points). Second, after conducting the school space design program, a survey on students were conducted, and as a result, all three areas of school space design class, process-based evaluation, interest scored high in average scores of 4.12 to 4.27 out of 5. According to the survey and interview results, the program provided new learning opportunities for school space design, the students were able to reach the suggested achievement goals, and the self-assessment, peer evaluation and teacher feedback positively affected the students during the learning process so that they could reflect on their learning and actively participate in the subsequent learning activity. This study has a limitation in generalizability in that the program was conducted on a limited number of students, and future studies are expected to expand the scope in terms of research participants, evaluation criteria, and school space design classes. This study laid the foundation for theory and practice by developing and implementing a process-based evaluation program for home economics education, and it has contribution in that it suggested the possibility that teachers and students can take the initiatives in school space design, focusing on the housing content elements of home economics.

The Effect of YouTube Creator's Characteristics on Content Involvement, user Attitude, and user Attitude on Subscription Intentions - Focusing on the Mediated Effect of Content Involvement - (유튜브 크리에이터의 특성이 콘텐츠관여도와 사용자태도에 그리고 사용자태도가 구독의도에 미치는 영향 - 콘텐츠관여도의 매개효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Eun, Chang-Ik
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.55-72
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to research the influences of the discrimination of internet media and one-person media environment, especially, the one-person media creators leading the mobile media that could be accessed and viewed anywhere, on the user attitude and continuous subscription intention. Especially, this study aimed to understand the current situation of one-person media market represented as YouTube, to explore the relationship and ecology between each subject and elements composing the media market, and also to understand the mediating effects of the characteristics of YouTube creators on the relation between contents involvement and user attitude, and the relation between user attitude and subscription intention, and the mediating effects of contents involvement on the relation between characteristics of creators and user attitude. As research methods, first, for the theoretical establishment, this study collected, conducted, and organized the published domestic/foreign theses/journal papers. For the objective validity and verification of the established research model, a survey was conducted targeting adult men and women currently watching YouTube, and then the empirical analysis was performed through the final effective samples. And the results of this study are as follows. First, the playfulness and reliability on the relation between characteristics of creators and contents involvement were not significant while the professionalism was significant. Second, the professionalism on the relation between characteristics of creators and user attitude was not significant while the playfulness and reliability were significant. Third, the relation between contents involvement and user attitude was significant. Fourth, the relation between user attitude and subscription intention was also significant. Also, in the results of verifying the mediating effects of contents involvement, the contents involvement completely mediated the relation between characteristics(playfulness, reliability, and professionalism) of creators and user attitude. And in the conclusion, this study presented the implications and suggestions for further researches in the future.

A Study on the Influence of Workers' Aspiration for Academic Needs on Participation in University Education (근로자의 학업욕구 열망이 대학교육 참여에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hun;Mun, Bok-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.231-241
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    • 2021
  • This study intended to present strategies and implications for attracting new students and customized education to university officials through research on the participation of workers' academic aspirations in university education. Thus, variables were derived by analyzing prior data, and causal settings between variables and questionnaires were developed. Subject to the survey, 331 workers interested in participating in university education were collected through interpersonal interviews. The collected data were dataized, and reliability and feasibility verification and frequency analysis were conducted. Finally, we validate the fit of the structural equation model and the causal relationship for each concept. Therefore, the results of the validation show the following implications. First, university officials should be motivated by a mentor and mentee system with experienced people who have switched to a suitable vocational group through university education. It will also be necessary to develop and disseminate programs so that they can continue to develop themselves for the future. To this end, it will be necessary to help them understand their aptitude and strengths through consultation with experts. Second, university officials should strengthen public relations so that prospective students can know the cases and information of the job transformation of the admitted workers through recommendations. It will also be necessary to develop university education programs that can self-develop, accept various ideas through "public contest", and provide accurate information about university education to workers through re-processing. Third, university officials should provide workers with a program that allows them to catch two rabbits: job transformation and self-improvement through university education. In other words, it is necessary to stimulate the motivation of workers by providing various information such as visiting advanced overseas companies, obtaining various certificates, moving between departments of blue-collar and white-collar, and transfer opportunities. Fourth, university officials should actively promote university education programs related to this by participating in university education and receiving systematic education and the flow of social environment. Finally, university officials will need to consult and promote workers so that they can self-develop when they participate in college education, and they will have to figure out what they need for self-development through demand surveys and analysis.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Application of Home Economics Teaching-Learning Plan in the Clothing For Teenager's Empowerment (청소년의 임파워먼트를 위한 의생활 영역 가정과수업의 적용)

  • Oh, Kyungseon;Lee, Soo-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.169-185
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to apply the clothing teaching-learning plan from a critical science perspective developed to improve teenager's empowerment, and to examine it's effects. A total of 12 plans of 5 modules(Module A to E) developed from critical science perspective were implemented for four weeks. Second-year students (N 42) of K Middle School located in Y-si, Gyeonggi-do participated in the study in the study, and the survey results were analyzed quantitatively using t-tests. For the quality analysis, The student interview data, action reports and etc. were collected, and qualitative analysis was conducted using empowerment model as the analysis framework. The findings of study are follows. First, two hours each for modules A to D, and four hours for module E were assigned, because module E included an action project. In the action projects by for groups, students were expected to take the lead in conducting the activities such as developing promotional posters, posting opinions online, promoting videos, informing how to make recyclables, and donating to the community. Second, as a result of analyzing the pre-implementation vs post-implementation empowerment scores, a significant difference was found in social-political empowerment (t=-2.06, p<0.05). According to the analysis of student interviews and students project's reports, students were found to become aware of empowerment through the instruction. On the intrapersonal level, positive self-awareness and self-efficacy, and on the interpersonal level, smooth communication and democratic decision-making were confirmed. This study is meaningful in that regular a home economics instruction class from a critical science perspective have made a quantitative and qualitative impact on teenagers' improvement empowerment, providing opportunities to find their roles in the soceity, cooperate with others, and behave responsibly as members of society.