• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.13-31
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• 2004

This paper aims at efficient determining the economic life of weapon systems. Specifically, the procedure to estimate the life cycle cost at initial acquisition state or at development state using the PRICE model is proposed. The PRICE model is a parametric cost estimation which is widely used in the field of national defense. The model includes the estimation of the cost in life cycle of weapon systems such as research and development, acquisition, operation and support. Using this model, economic life of weapon systems can be determined. Based on an equivalent annual cost (EAC) method which sums the capital recovery with return (CR) and the equivalence cost (EC), the economic life will be calculated. A case study is accomplished to illustrate the proposed procedure.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.179-187
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• 2005

This paper introduces the Cheonggye-cheon restoration project. The restoration project aims to revive the 600-year-old city of Seoul by recovering the historical heritage, guaranteeing safety from the deteriorated covering structures, creating the environment-friendly space, and revitalizing the neglected city centers. In order to understand the current hydrological cycle of the Chenggye-cheon watershed, the annual water balance of the region was calculated using the observed data including precipitation, runoff, water supply and sewage, and the changes in the groundwater level. The $2001{\sim}2002$ data were used to calibrate the WEP, and the $2003{\sim}2004$ data were used to verify the WEP. The calibration and validation results for the flood hydrograph how a reasonable value (at Majanggyo station, the R2 for the calibration period was 0.9, and that for the validation period was 0.7). According to the annual water balance of the Cheonggye-cheon watershed for 2004, the amount of surface runoff, infiltration, and evapotranspiration was 1,097mm, 216mm and 382mm, respectively, for an annual precipitation of 1,499mm. The application results from WEP, a distributed hydrological model, provide more detailed information of the watershed, and the model will be useful for improving the hydrological cycle in urban watershed.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.111-130
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• 2010

An uncertainty assessment for precipitation datasets simulated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) is conducted to provide reliable climate scenario over East Asia. Most of results overestimate precipitation compared to the observational data (wet bias) in spring-fall-winter, while they underestimate precipitation (dry bias) in summer in East Asia. Higher spatial resolution model shows better performances in simulation of precipitation. To assess the uncertainty of spatiotemporal precipitation in East Asia, the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is applied. An annual cycle of precipitation obtained from the CSEOF analysis accounts for the biggest variability in its total variability. A comparison between annual cycles of observed and modeled precipitation anomalies shows distinct differences: 1) positive precipitation anomalies of the multi-model ensemble (MME) for 20 models (thereafter MME20) in summer locate toward the north compared to the observational data so that it cannot explain summer monsoon rainfalls across Korea and Japan. 2) The onset of summer monsoon in MME20 in Korean peninsula starts earlier than observed one. These differences show the uncertainty of modeled precipitation. Also the comparison provides the criteria of annual cycle and correlation between modeled and observational data which helps to select best models and generate a new MME, which is better than the MME20. The spatiotemporal deviation of precipitation is significantly associated with lower-level circulations. In particular, lower-level moisture transports from the warm pool of the western Pacific and corresponding moisture convergence significantly are strongly associated with summer rainfalls. These lower-level circulations physically consistent with precipitation give insight into description of the reason in the monsoon of East Asia why behaviors of individually modeled precipitation differ from that of observation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.27-27
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• 2023

To analyze the evolution of water resources in Qiandao Lake Basin under the condition of climate change, a WEP-L distributed hydrological model was established to simulate the water cycle process in the basin during 1960-2020. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test method and Hurst index method were used to analyze the inter-annual variation and annual distribution characteristics of the total water resources in the basin. The multi-scale temporal and spatial distribution and evolution trend of water resources in Qiandao Lake Basin were evaluated. The results show that: (1) The WEP-L model has good simulation results in the Qiandao Lake basin, and the Nash coefficient rate is above 0.83 in the periodic period and above 0.85 in the verification period. (2) The water yield coefficient of the whole basin ranges from 0.436 to 0.630. The annual average total water resource is 12.25 billion m³, equivalent to 1176.4mm of water depth. The annual distribution process shows a unimodal structure, and the water depth of each sub-basin ranges from 742 mm to 1266 mm, and the spatial distribution is higher in the west and lower in the east. (3) The annual water resources series in the basin showed an insignificant upward trend, and the Hurst index was 0.86, indicating a continuous upward trend. From the perspective of monthly water resources, January and February increased significantly, the other months were not significant changes.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.159-169
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• 2007

The complex 2-dimensional movements of fish during an annual migration circuit were generated and simulated by a chaotic model of fish movement, which was expanded from a small-scale movement model. Fish migration was modeled as a neural network including stimuli, central decision-making, and output responses as variables. The input stimuli included physical stimuli (temperature, salinity, turbidity, flow), biotic factors (prey, predators, life cycle) and landmarks or navigational aids (sun, moon, weather), values of which were all normalized as ratios. By varying the amplitude and period coefficients of the klinokinesis index using chaotic equations, model results (i.e., spatial orientation patterns of migration through time) were represented as fish feeding, spawning, overwintering, and sheltering. Simulations using this model generated 2-dimesional annual movements of sea bream migration in the southern and western seas of the Korean Peninsula. This model of object-oriented and large-scale fish migration produced complicated and sensitive migratory movements by varying both the klinokinesis coefficients (e.g., the amplitude and period of the physiological month) and the angular variables within chaotic equations.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.581-585
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• 2010

This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend seasonal analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel and GEV extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both trend and seasonal analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. In addition, full annual cycle of the design rainfall through seasonal model could be applied to annual control such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.7-17
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• 2009

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of potential future climate change on the water cycle and soil loss of the Daecheong reservoir watershed. A sensitivity analysis using influence coefficient method was conducted for two selected hydrological input parameters and three selected sediment input parameters to identify the most to the least sensitive parameters. A further detailed sensitivity analysis was performed for the parameters: Manning coefficient for channel (Cn), evaporation (ESCO), and sediment concentration in lateral (LAT_SED), support practice factor (USLA_P). Calibration and verification of SWAT were performed on monthly basis for 1993~2006 and 1977~1991, respectively. The model efficiency index (EI) and coefficient of determination ($R^2$) computed for the monthly comparisons of runoffs were 0.78 and 0.76 for the calibration period, and 0.58 and 0.65 for the verification period. The results showed that the hydrological cycle in the watershed is very sensitive to climate factors. A doubling of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations was predicted to result in an average annual flow increase of 27.9% and annual sediment yield increase of 23.3%. Essentially linear impacts were predicted between two precipitation change scenarios of -20, and 20%, which resulted in average annual flow and sediment yield changes at Okcheon of -53.8%, 63.0% and -55.3%, 65.8%, respectively. An average annual flow increase of 46.3% and annual sediment yield increase of 36.4% was estimated for a constant humidity increase 5%. An average annual flow decrease of 9.6% and annual sediment yield increase of 216.4% was estimated for a constant temperature increase $4^{\circ}C$.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.3-11
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• 2016

Sixty four percent of Korean territory consists of forest which is fragile for forest fire. However, it is difficult to detect the disaster-induced damages due to topographic complexity in mountainous areas and harsh weather conditions. For this reason, satellite imaging systems have been widely utilized to detect the damage caused by forest fire. In particular, ground vegetation condition can be estimated from multi-spectral satellite images and change detection technique has been used to detect forest fire damages. However, since Korea has clear four seasons, simple change detection technique has limitation. In this regard, this study applied the NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) annual cycle modeling technique on time-series of Landsat images from 1991 to 2007 to analyze influence of forest fire of Yangyang-gun, Gangwon-do in 2005 on vegetation condition. The encouraging result was obtained when comparing the areas where forest fire occurs with non-damaged areas. The mean value of NDVI was decreased by 0.07 before and after the forest fire. On the other hand, annual variability of NDVI had been increasing and peak value of NDVI was stationary after the forest fire. It is interpreted that understory vegetation was seriously damaged from the forest fire occurred in 2005.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.113-127
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• 2006

We consider an integrated supply chain model in which multiple suppliers replenish items for a single buyer's demand. Also the buyer specifies a basic replenishment cycle and the suppliers replenish the items only at those time intervals. Namely, we propose a model to study and analyze the benefit by coordinating supply chain inventories through the basic replenishment cycle time. The objective of this model is to minimize the total relevant annual cost of the integrated inventory model. After developing proposed coordinated models, we suggest heuristics for searching the solutions of our models. Finally, numerical and computational experiments for each policy are carried out to evaluate the benefits of those models and the compensation policy is addressed to share the benefits.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.97-114
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• 2002

An estimation of economic life for a new weapon system is a critical issue in aquisition process. In general a life cycle cost consists of, development cost, aquisition cost, and maintenance cost. These costs are not identified and obtained in the beginning of the aquisition process. This paper deals with an economic life for KlAl tank which is being deployed recently, using PRICE model. In order to estimate an KlAl economic life, we use equivalent annual cost method which is sum of capital recovering with return and equivalent O&M cost method. This method determines an economic life by minimizing annual investment cost and operation and maintenance cost. In this paper, an aquisition cost of KlAl is obtained from PRICE H and O&M cost from PRICE HL model. We obtained various results depending upon production quantity. An economic life for KlAl is estimated 18 years when 300 tanks are produced.