Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
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Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Factors on Runoff and Soil Losses in Daecheong Reservoir Watershed using SWAT

SWAT 모형을 이용한 대청댐 유역의 기후인자에 따른 유출 및 유사량 민감도 평가

  • Ye, Lyeong (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University) ;
  • Chung, Se-Woong (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University) ;
  • Lee, Heung-Soo (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University) ;
  • Yoon, Sung-Wan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University) ;
  • Jeong, Hee-Young (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
  • 예령 (충북대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 정세웅 (충북대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 이흥수 (충북대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 윤성완 (충북대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 정희영 (충북대학교 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2008.06.30
  • Accepted : 2008.10.14
  • Published : 2009.01.30
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Abstract

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of potential future climate change on the water cycle and soil loss of the Daecheong reservoir watershed. A sensitivity analysis using influence coefficient method was conducted for two selected hydrological input parameters and three selected sediment input parameters to identify the most to the least sensitive parameters. A further detailed sensitivity analysis was performed for the parameters: Manning coefficient for channel (Cn), evaporation (ESCO), and sediment concentration in lateral (LAT_SED), support practice factor (USLA_P). Calibration and verification of SWAT were performed on monthly basis for 1993~2006 and 1977~1991, respectively. The model efficiency index (EI) and coefficient of determination ($R^2$) computed for the monthly comparisons of runoffs were 0.78 and 0.76 for the calibration period, and 0.58 and 0.65 for the verification period. The results showed that the hydrological cycle in the watershed is very sensitive to climate factors. A doubling of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations was predicted to result in an average annual flow increase of 27.9% and annual sediment yield increase of 23.3%. Essentially linear impacts were predicted between two precipitation change scenarios of -20, and 20%, which resulted in average annual flow and sediment yield changes at Okcheon of -53.8%, 63.0% and -55.3%, 65.8%, respectively. An average annual flow increase of 46.3% and annual sediment yield increase of 36.4% was estimated for a constant humidity increase 5%. An average annual flow decrease of 9.6% and annual sediment yield increase of 216.4% was estimated for a constant temperature increase $4^{\circ}C$.

Keywords

References

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