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Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Factors on Runoff and Soil Losses in Daecheong Reservoir Watershed using SWAT  

Ye, Lyeong (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Chung, Se-Woong (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Lee, Heung-Soo (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Yoon, Sung-Wan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Jeong, Hee-Young (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment / v.25, no.1, 2009 , pp. 7-17 More about this Journal
Abstract
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of potential future climate change on the water cycle and soil loss of the Daecheong reservoir watershed. A sensitivity analysis using influence coefficient method was conducted for two selected hydrological input parameters and three selected sediment input parameters to identify the most to the least sensitive parameters. A further detailed sensitivity analysis was performed for the parameters: Manning coefficient for channel (Cn), evaporation (ESCO), and sediment concentration in lateral (LAT_SED), support practice factor (USLA_P). Calibration and verification of SWAT were performed on monthly basis for 1993~2006 and 1977~1991, respectively. The model efficiency index (EI) and coefficient of determination ($R^2$) computed for the monthly comparisons of runoffs were 0.78 and 0.76 for the calibration period, and 0.58 and 0.65 for the verification period. The results showed that the hydrological cycle in the watershed is very sensitive to climate factors. A doubling of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations was predicted to result in an average annual flow increase of 27.9% and annual sediment yield increase of 23.3%. Essentially linear impacts were predicted between two precipitation change scenarios of -20, and 20%, which resulted in average annual flow and sediment yield changes at Okcheon of -53.8%, 63.0% and -55.3%, 65.8%, respectively. An average annual flow increase of 46.3% and annual sediment yield increase of 36.4% was estimated for a constant humidity increase 5%. An average annual flow decrease of 9.6% and annual sediment yield increase of 216.4% was estimated for a constant temperature increase $4^{\circ}C$.
Keywords
Climate change; Runoff; Sensitivity; Soil loss; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT);
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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