• Title/Summary/Keyword: Advance Rate Model

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PREDICTING CORPORATE FINANCIAL CRISIS USING SOM-BASED NEUROFUZZY MODEL

  • Jieh-Haur Chen;Shang-I Lin;Jacob Chen;Pei-Fen Huang
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.382-388
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    • 2011
  • Being aware of the risk in advance necessitates intricate processes but is feasible. Although previous studies have demonstrated high accuracy, their performance still leaves room for improvement. A self-organizing feature map (SOM) based neurofuzzy model is developed in this study to provide another alternative for forecasting corporate financial distress. The model is designed to yield high prediction accuracy, as well as reference rules for evaluating corporate financial status. As a database, the study collects all financial reports from listed construction companies during the latest decade, resulting in over 1000 effective samples. The proportion of "failed" and "non-failed" companies is approximately 1:2. Each financial report is comprised of 25 ratios which are set as the input variable s. The proposed model integrates the concepts of pattern classification, fuzzy modeling and SOM-based optimization to predict corporate financial distress. The results exhibit a high accuracy rate at 85.1%. This model outperforms previous tools. A total of 97 rules are extracted from the proposed model which can be also used as reference for construction practitioners. Users may easily identify their corporate financial status by using these rules.

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Noise Robust Speech Recognition Based on Parallel Model Combination Adaptation Using Frequency-Variant (주파수 변이를 이용한 Parallel Model Combination 모델 적응에 기반한 잡음에 강한 음성인식)

  • Choi, Sook-Nam;Chung, Hyun-Yeol
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.252-261
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    • 2013
  • The common speech recognition system displays higher recognition performance in a quiet environment, while its performance declines sharply in a real environment where there are noises. To implement a speech recognizer that is robust in different speech settings, this study suggests the method of Parallel Model Combination adaptation using frequency-variant based on environment-awareness (FV-PMC), which uses variants in frequency; acquires the environmental data for speech recognition; applies it to upgrading the speech recognition model; and promotes its performance enhancement. This FV-PMC performs the speech recognition with the recognition model which is generated as followings: i) calculating the average frequency variant in advance among the readily-classified noise groups and setting it as a threshold value; ii) recalculating the frequency variant among noise groups when speech with unknown noises are input; iii) regarding the speech higher than the threshold value of the relevant group as the speech including the noise of its group; and iv) using the speech that includes this noise group. When noises were classified with the proposed FV-PMC, the average accuracy of classification was 56%, and the results from the speech recognition experiments showed the average recognition rate of Set A was 79.05%, the rate of Set B 79.43%m, and the rate of Set C 83.37% respectively. The grand mean of recognition rate was 80.62%, which demonstrates 5.69% more improved effects than the recognition rate of 74.93% of the existing Parallel Model Combination with a clear model, meaning that the proposed method is effective.

Estimation of Probability Density Functions of Damage Parameter for Valve Leakage Detection in Reciprocating Pump Used in Nuclear Power Plants

  • Lee, Jong Kyeom;Kim, Tae Yun;Kim, Hyun Su;Chai, Jang-Bom;Lee, Jin Woo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.1280-1290
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

Two-dimensional numerical experiment considering cohort size and wood jam characteristic on driftwood (유목의 유입규모와 군집특성을 고려하는 2차원 수치모의 실험)

  • Kang, Taeun;Jang, Chang-Lae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.407-418
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the two-dimensional flow model, Nays2DH, and driftwood dynamics model were combined to analyze the flow and driftwood behavior depending on the characteristics of the inflow of driftwood and the length of the driftwood stem. In particular, the Dashpot-spring model was added to the driftwood dynamics model to simulate the collision motion of the driftwood, and the wood jam characteristics by the collision of the driftwood were compared. As a result of the simulation, the pass rate of the obstacle section, the travel distance of wood jam, and the mean position of the wood pieces were respondent sensitively by the length of the driftwood stem, but the cohort size of the driftwood supply was insignificant excepting for the pass rate. Through this study, we could understand the interaction between hydraulic structures and driftwood, and through this, it is believed that it will be helpful in establishing a durable maintenance plan for hydraulic structures by predicting the transport and jam formation phenomena of driftwood in advance.

A Profit Prediction Model in the International Construction Market - focusing on Small and Medium Sized Construction Companies (CBR을 활용한 해외건설 수익성 예측 모델 개발 - 중소·중견기업을 중심으로 -)

  • Hwang, Geon Wook;Jang, woosik;Park, Chan-Young;Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Jong Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2015
  • While the international construction industry for Korean companies have grown in market size exponentially in the recent years, the profit rate of small and medium sized construction companies (SMCCs) are incomparably lower than those of large construction companies. Furthermore, small and medium size companies, especially subcontractor, lacks the judgement of project involvement appropriateness, which leads to an unpredictable profit rate. Therefore, this research aims to create a profit rate prediction model for the international construction project focusing on SMCCs. First, the factors that influence the profit rate and the area of profit zone are defined by using a total of 8,637 projects since the year 1965. Seconds, an extensive literature review is conducted to derive 10 influencing factors. Multiple regression analysis and corresponding judgement technique are used to derive the weight of each factor. Third, cased based reasoning (CBR) methodology is applied to develop the model for profit rate analysis in the project participation review stage. Using 120 validation data set, the developed model showed 11% (14 data sets) of error rate for type 1 and type 2 error. In utilizing the result, project decision makers are able to make decision based on authentic results instead of intuitive based decisions. The model additionally give guidance to the Korean subcontractors when advancing into the international construction based on the model result that shows the profit distribution and checks in advance for the quality of the project to secure a sound profit in each project.

A Study on Providing Real-Time Route Guidance Information by Variable Massage Signs with Driver Behavior (운전자 행태를 고려한 VMS의 실시간 경로안내 정보제공에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-U;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.7 s.93
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2006
  • The ATIS(Advance Traveler Information System), as one part of ITS, is a system aiming to disperse traffic volume on transportation networks by providing traffic information to transportation users on pre-trip and en-route trips. One of tools in ATIS is usage of VMS(Variable Message Signs). It provides to the drivers with direct information about state of processing direction. which is considered as the most effective method in ATIS. The purposes of providing VMS information are classified two categories. One is to provide simple information to drivers for their convenience. The other is to manage traffic demand to improve transportation network performance. However, for more effective and reliable VMS information, several strategies should be taken into account. The main VMS management strategy is "Traffic Diversion Strategy for minimum delay" when traffic congestion or incident are occurred. For effective operation. firstly. reasonable diversion traffic volume is determined by network traffic condition Secondly, it is necessary to make providing information strategy which reflects driver response behavior for controling diversion traffic volume. This paper focuses on the providing real-time route guidance information by VMS when congestion is occurred by the incidents. This sturdy estimates time-dependent system optimal diversion rate that inflects travel time and queue lengths using traffic flow simulation model on base Cellular Automata. In addition, route choice behavior models are developed using binary logit model for traffic information variable by traffic system controller. Finally, this study provides time-dependent VMS massage contents and degree of providing information in order to optimize the traffic flow.

Time Series Data Processing Deep Learning system for Prediction of Hospital Outpatient Number (병원 외래환자수의 예측을 위한 시계열 데이터처리 딥러닝 시스템)

  • Jo, Jun-Mo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.313-318
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    • 2021
  • The advent of the Deep Learning has applied to many industrial and general applications having an impact on our lives these days. Certain type of machine learning model is needed to be designed for a specific problem of field. Recently, there are many instances to solve the various COVID-19 related problems using deep learning model. Therefore, in this paper, a deep learning model for predicting number of outpatients of a hospital in advance is suggested. The suggested deep learning model is designed by using the Keras in Jupyter Notebook. The prediction result is being analyzed with the real data in graph, as well as the loss rate with some validation data to verify either for the underfitting or the overfitting.

An Efficient Algorithm to Develop Model for Predicting Bead Width in Butt Welding

  • Kim, I.S.;Son, J.S.
    • International Journal of Korean Welding Society
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2001
  • With the advance of the robotic welding process, procedure optimization that selects the welding procedure and predicts bead width that will be deposited is increased. A major concern involving procedure optimization should define a welding procedure that can be shown to be the best with respect to some standard and chosen combination of process parameters, which give an acceptable balance between production rate and the scope of defects for a given situation. This paper presents a new algorithm to establish a mathematical model f3r predicting bead width through a neural network and multiple regression methods, to understand relationships between process parameters and bead width, and to predict process parameters on bead width for GMA welding process. Using a series of robotic arc welding, additional multi-pass butt welds were carried out in order to verify the performance of the neural network estimator and multiple regression methods as well as to select the most suitable model. The results show that not only the proposed models can predict the bead width with reasonable accuracy and guarantee the uniform weld quality, but also a neural network model could be better than the empirical models.

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Study on Methanol Conversion Efficiency and Mass Transfer of Steam-Methanol Reforming on Flow Rate Variation in Curved Channel (곡유로 채널을 가지는 수증기-메탄올 개질기에서 유량 변화에 따른 메탄올 전환율 및 물질 전달에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Hyun;Park, In Sung;Suh, Jeong Se
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2015
  • In this study, numerical analysis of curved channel steam-methanol reformer was conducted using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) commercial code STAR-CCM. A pre-numerical analysis of reference model with a cylindrical channel reactor was performed to validate the combustion model of the CFD commercial code. The result of advance validation was in agreement with reference model over 95%. After completing the validation, a curved channel reactor was designed to determine the effects of shape and length of flow path on methanol conversion efficiency and generation of hydrogen. Numerical analysis of the curved-channel reformer was conducted under various flow rate ($10/15/20{\mu}l/min$). As a result, the characteristics of flow and mass transfer were confirmed in the cylindrical channel and curved channel reactor, and useful information about methanol conversion efficiency and hydrogen generation was obtained for various flow rate.

The Study of Development and Calibration for the Real Scale Fire Test Facility (실대형화재평가장치의 개발 및 안정화에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Yong-Ho;Kim, Heung-Youl;Shin, Hyun-Jun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2008
  • The reduced scale fire test provides basic data but it is not enough to analysis real fire problem directly because there is no exact analogy theory between a real fire and the reduced scale model. Therefore, we have developed the 10 MW large scale calorimeter in order to real scale fire test. This advanced large scale calorimeter used for physical properties such as a heat release rate, based upon consumption of $O_2$ method. Using the heptane pool fire, we carried out the calibration in order to evaluation for heat release rate. It is approve that this facility has the reliability and it is capable of applying to the advance fire research in the future.