• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accuracy of Prediction

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Personalized Exhibition Booth Recommendation Methodology Using Sequential Association Rule (순차 연관 규칙을 이용한 개인화된 전시 부스 추천 방법)

  • Moon, Hyun-Sil;Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Kim, Hyea-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.195-211
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    • 2010
  • An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors' main product range to either business or private visitors, and it also plays a key role as effective marketing channels. Especially, as the effect of the opinions of the visitors after the exhibition impacts directly on sales or the image of companies, exhibition organizers must consider various needs of visitors. To meet needs of visitors, ubiquitous technologies have been applied in some exhibitions. However, despite of the development of the ubiquitous technologies, their services cannot always reflect visitors' preferences as they only generate information when visitors request. As a result, they have reached their limit to meet needs of visitors, which consequently might lead them to loss of marketing opportunity. Recommendation systems can be the right type to overcome these limitations. They can recommend the booths to coincide with visitors' preferences, so that they help visitors who are in difficulty for choices in exhibition environment. One of the most successful and widely used technologies for building recommender systems is called Collaborative Filtering. Traditional recommender systems, however, only use neighbors' evaluations or behaviors for a personalized prediction. Therefore, they can not reflect visitors' dynamic preference, and also lack of accuracy in exhibition environment. Although there is much useful information to infer visitors' preference in ubiquitous environment (e.g., visitors' current location, booth visit path, and so on), they use only limited information for recommendation. In this study, we propose a booth recommendation methodology using Sequential Association Rule which considers the sequence of visiting. Recent studies of Sequential Association Rule use the constraints to improve the performance. However, since traditional Sequential Association Rule considers the whole rules to recommendation, they have a scalability problem when they are adapted to a large exhibition scale. To solve this problem, our methodology composes the confidence database before recommendation process. To compose the confidence database, we first search preceding rules which have the frequency above threshold. Next, we compute the confidences of each preceding rules to each booth which is not contained in preceding rules. Therefore, the confidence database has two kinds of information which are preceding rules and their confidence to each booth. In recommendation process, we just generate preceding rules of the target visitors based on the records of the visits, and recommend booths according to the confidence database. Throughout these steps, we expect reduction of time spent on recommendation process. To evaluate proposed methodology, we use real booth visit records which are collected by RFID technology in IT exhibition. Booth visit records also contain the visit sequence of each visitor. We compare the performance of proposed methodology with traditional Collaborative Filtering system. As a result, our proposed methodology generally shows higher performance than traditional Collaborative Filtering. We can also see some features of it in experimental results. First, it shows the highest performance at one booth recommendation. It detects preceding rules with some portions of visitors. Therefore, if there is a visitor who moved with very a different pattern compared to the whole visitors, it cannot give a correct recommendation for him/her even though we increase the number of recommendation. Trained by the whole visitors, it cannot correctly give recommendation to visitors who have a unique path. Second, the performance of general recommendation systems increase as time expands. However, our methodology shows higher performance with limited information like one or two time periods. Therefore, not only can it recommend even if there is not much information of the target visitors' booth visit records, but also it uses only small amount of information in recommendation process. We expect that it can give real?time recommendations in exhibition environment. Overall, our methodology shows higher performance ability than traditional Collaborative Filtering systems, we expect it could be applied in booth recommendation system to satisfy visitors in exhibition environment.

The Impact of Milk Production Level on Profit Traits of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 생산수준이 젖소의 수익형질에 미치는 효과)

  • Do, Changhee;Park, Suhun;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Yunho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Byungho;Yun, Hobaek;Lee, Donghee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • Data including 1,372,050 milk records pertaining to 438,019 cows from 1983 to 2011 collected during performance tests conducted by the National Livestock Cooperative Dairy Improvement Center were used to calculate milk income and profit of individuals and investigate the effects of production levels of early lactation (parity 1 and 2, respectively). Individuals with a moderate level of early lactation stayed longer in herds. Among parity 1, the 9,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactations than the overall mean of 3.13. The 7,000 kg or lower and 10,000 kg or higher groups had lower mean life time milking days than the overall mean of 1,076.8 days. Standard deviations of lifetime traits tended to decrease as production levels increased. For parity 2, the 11,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactation than the overall mean of 3.43. The lifetime milking days was highest in the 12,000 kg group (1,212.0 days), and generally smaller in the lower groups. Profit increased as the production level of groups increased for both parity 1 and 2. In groups with low production levels, profit of parity 1 was higher than that of parity 2, while the reverse was true in groups with high production levels. These results suggest that individuals in the low production groups had a greater likelihood to be culled due to reproductive or other problems. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction of lifetime profit of individuals with a milk yield of 305 days seems to be higher for parity 2 than parity 1; therefore, it is desirable to predict lifetime profit using the 305d milk yield of parity 2. In conclusion, breeding goals are based on many factors in functions for the estimation of profit; however, production levels during early lactation (parity 1 and 2) can be used as indicators of profit to extend profitability.

Comparison of Breeding Value by Establishment of Genomic Relationship Matrix in Pure Landrace Population (유전체 관계행렬 구성에 따른 Landrace 순종돈의 육종가 비교)

  • Lee, Joon-Ho;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Cho, Chung-Il;Park, Kyung-Do;Lee, Deuk Hwan
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2013
  • Genomic relationship matrix (GRM) was constructed using whole genome SNP markers of swine and genomic breeding value was estimated by substitution of the numerator relationship matrix (NRM) based on pedigree information to GRM. Genotypes of 40,706 SNP markers from 448 pure Landrace pigs were used in this study and five kinds of GRM construction methods, G05, GMF, GOF, $GOF^*$ and GN, were compared with each other and with NRM. Coefficients of GOF considering each of observed allele frequencies showed the lowest deviation with coefficients of NRM and as coefficients of GMF considering the average minor allele frequency showed huge deviation from coefficients of NRM, movement of mean was expected by methods of allele frequency consideration. All GRM construction methods, except for $GOF^*$, showed normally distributed Mendelian sampling. As the result of breeding value (BV) estimation for days to 90 kg (D90KG) and average back-fat thickness (ABF) using NRM and GRM, correlation between BV of NRM and GRM was the highest by GOF and as genetic variance was overestimated by $GOF^*$, it was confirmed that scale of GRM is closely related with estimation of genetic variance. With the same amount of phenotype information, accuracy of BV based on genomic information was higher than BV based on pedigree information and these symptoms were more obvious for ABF then D90KG. Genetic evaluation of animal using relationship matrix by genomic information could be useful when there is lack of phenotype or relationship and prediction of BV for young animals without phenotype.

Smart farm development strategy suitable for domestic situation -Focusing on ICT technical characteristics for the development of the industry6.0- (국내 실정에 적합한 스마트팜 개발 전략 -6차산업의 발전을 위한 ICT 기술적 특성을 중심으로-)

  • Han, Sang-Ho;Joo, Hyung-Kun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2022
  • This study tried to propose a smart farm technology strategy suitable for the domestic situation, focusing on the differentiation suitable for the domestic situation of ICT technology. In the case of advanced countries in the overseas agricultural industry, it was confirmed that they focused on the development of a specific stage that reflected the geographical characteristics of each country, the characteristics of the agricultural industry, and the characteristics of the people's demand. Confirmed that no enemy development is being performed. Therefore, in response to problems such as a rapid decrease in the domestic rural population, aging population, loss of agricultural price competitiveness, increase in fallow land, and decrease in use rate of arable land, this study aims to develop smart farm ICT technology in the future to create quality agricultural products and have price competitiveness. It was suggested that the smart farm should be promoted by paying attention to the excellent performance, ease of use due to the aging of the labor force, and economic feasibility suitable for a small business scale. First, in terms of economic feasibility, the ICT technology is configured by selecting only the functions necessary for the small farm household (primary) business environment, and the smooth communication system with these is applied to the ICT technology to gradually update the functions required by the actual farmhouse. suggested that it may contribute to the reduction. Second, in terms of performance, it is suggested that the operation accuracy can be increased if attention is paid to improving the communication function of ICT, such as adjusting the difficulty of big data suitable for the aging population in Korea, using a language suitable for them, and setting an algorithm that reflects their prediction tendencies. Third, the level of ease of use. Smart farms based on ICT technology for the development of the Industry6.0 (1.0(Agriculture, Forestry) + 2.0(Agricultural and Water & Water Processing) + 3.0 (Service, Rural Experience, SCM)) perform operations according to specific commands, finally suggested that ease of use can be promoted by presetting and standardizing devices based on big data configuration customized for each regional environment.

A Study For Optimizing Input Waveforms In Radiofrequency Liver Tumor Ablation Using Finite Element Analysis (유한 요소 해석을 이용한 고주파 간 종양 절제술의 입력 파형 최적화를 위한 연구)

  • Lim, Do-Hyung;NamGung, Bum-Seok;Lee, Tae-Woo;Choi, Jin-Seung;Tack, Gye-Rae;Kim, Han-Sung
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2007
  • Hepatocellular carcinoma is significant worldwide public health problem with an estimated annually mortality of 1,000,000 people. Radiofrequency (RF) ablation is an interventional technique that in recent years has come to be used for treatment of the hepatocellualr carcinoma, by destructing tumor tissues in high temperatures. Numerous studies have been attempted to prove excellence of RF ablation and to improve its efficiency by various methods. However, the attempts are sometimes paradox to advantages of a minimum invasive characteristic and an operative simplicity in RF ablation. The aim of the current study is, therefore, to suggest an improved RF ablation technique by identifying an optimum RF pattern, which is one of important factors capable of controlling the extent of high temperature region in lossless of the advantages of RF ablation. Three-dimensional finite element (FE) model was developed and validated comparing with the results reported by literature. Four representative Rf patterns (sine, square, exponential, and simulated RF waves), which were corresponding to currents fed during simulated RF ablation, were investigated. Following parameters for each RF pattern were analyzed to identify which is the most optimum in eliminating effectively tumor tissues. 1) maximum temperature, 2) a degree of alteration of maximum temperature in a constant time range (30-40 second), 3) a domain of temperature over $47^{\circ}C$ isothermal temperature (IT), and 4) a domain inducing over 63% cell damage. Here, heat transfer characteristics within the tissues were determined by Bioheat Governing Equation. Developed FE model showed 90-95% accuracy approximately in prediction of maximum temperature and domain of interests achieved during RF ablation. Maximum temperatures for sine, square, exponential, and simulated RF waves were $69.0^{\circ}C,\;66.9^{\circ}C,\;65.4^{\circ}C,\;and\;51.8^{\circ}C$, respectively. While the maximum temperatures were decreased in the constant time range, average time intervals for sine, square, exponential, and simulated RE waves were $0.49{\pm}0.14,\;1.00{\pm}0.00,\;1.65{\pm}0.02,\;and\;1.66{\pm}0.02$ seconds, respectively. Average magnitudes of the decreased maximum temperatures in the time range were $0.45{\pm}0.15^{\circ}C$ for sine wave, $1.93{\pm}0.02^{\circ}C$ for square wave, $2.94{\pm}0.05^{\circ}C$ for exponential wave, and $1.53{\pm}0.06^{\circ}C$ for simulated RF wave. Volumes of temperature domain over $47^{\circ}C$ IT for sine, square, exponential, and simulated RF waves were 1480mm3, 1440mm3, 1380mm3, and 395mm3, respectively. Volumes inducing over 63% cell damage for sine, square, exponential, and simulated RF waves were 114mm3, 62mm3, 17mm3, and 0mm3, respectively. These results support that applying sine wave during RF ablation may be generally the most optimum in destructing effectively tumor tissues, compared with other RF patterns.

Analysis and Prediction of Sewage Components of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Neural Network (대도시 하수종말처리장 유입 하수의 성상 평가와 인공신경망을 이용한 구성성분 농도 예측)

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Seok;Lee, Sang-Hyung;Shin, Hang-Sik;Song, Eui-Yeol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.308-315
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    • 2006
  • Since sewage characteristics are the most important factors that can affect the biological reactions in wastewater treatment plants, a detailed understanding on the characteristics and on-line measurement techniques of the influent sewage would play an important role in determining the appropriate control strategies. In this study, samples were taken at two hour intervals during 51 days from $1^{st}$ October to $21^{st}$ November 2005 from the influent gate of sewage treatment plant. Then the characteristics of sewage were investigated. It was found that the daily values of flow rate and concentrations of sewage components showed a defined profile. The highest and lowest peak values were observed during $11:00{\sim}13:00$ hours and $05:00{\sim}07:00$ hours, respectively. Also, it was shown that the concentrations of sewage components were strongly correlated with the absorbance measured at 300 nm of UV. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to develop on-line estimation technique of the concentration of each component in the sewage using accumulated profiles of sewage, absorbance, and flow rate which can be measured in real time. As a first step, regression analysis was performed using the absorbance and component concentration data. Then a neural network trained with the input of influent flow rate, absorbance, and inflow duration was used. Both methods showed remarkable accuracy in predicting the resulting concentrations of the individual components of the sewage. In case of using the neural network, the predicted value md of the measurement were 19.3 and 14.4 for TSS, 26.7 and 25.1 for TCOD, 5.4 and 4.1 for TN, and for TP, 0.45 to 0.39, respectively.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

Development of Stand Yield Table Based on Current Growth Characteristics of Chamaecyparis obtusa Stands (현실임분 생장특성에 의한 편백 임분수확표 개발)

  • Jung, Su Young;Lee, Kwang Soo;Lee, Ho Sang;Ji Bae, Eun;Park, Jun Hyung;Ko, Chi-Ung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.4
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    • pp.477-483
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    • 2020
  • We constructed a stand yield table for Chamaecyparis obtusa based on data from an actual forest. The previous stand yield table had a number of disadvantages because it was based on actual forest information. In the present study we used data from more than 200 sampling plots in a stand of Chamaecyparis obtusa. The analysis included theestimation, recovery and prediction of the distribution of values for diameter at breast height (DBH), and the result is a valuable process for the preparation ofstand yield tables. The DBH distribution model uses a Weibull function, and the site index (base age: 30 years), the standard for assessing forest productivity, was derived using the Chapman-Richards formula. Several estimation formulas for the preparation of the stand yield table were considered for the fitness index, and the optimal formula was chosen. The analysis shows that the site index is in the range of 10 to 18 in the Chamaecyparis obtusa stand. The estimated stand volume of each sample plot was found to have an accuracy of 62%. According to the residuals analysis, the stands showed even distribution around zero, which indicates that the results are useful in the field. Comparing the table constructed in this study to the existing stand yield table, we found that our table yielded comparatively higher values for growth. This is probably because the existing analysis data used a small amount of research data that did not properly reflect. We hope that the stand yield table of Chamaecyparis obtusa, a representative species of southern regions, will be widely used for forest management. As these forests stabilize and growth progresses, we plan to construct an additional yield table applicable to the production of developed stands.

Prediction of Energy Requirements for Maintenance and Growth of Female Korean Black Goats (번식용 교잡 흑염소의 유지와 성장을 위한 대사에너지 요구량 추정)

  • Lee, Jinwook;Kim, Kwan Woo;Lee, Sung Soo;Ko, Yeoung Gyu;Lee, Yong Jae;Kim, Sung Woo;Jeon, Da Yeon;Roh, Hee Jong;Yun, Yeong Sik;Kim, Do Hyung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to predict the energy requirements for maintenance and growth of female Korean black goats during their growth and pregnancy phases. Fifty female goats ($18.7{\pm}0.27kg$) in their growth phase with an average age of 5 months were stratified by weight and randomly assigned into 5 groups. They were fed 5 diets varying in metabolic energy (ME) [2.32 (G1), 2.49 (G2), 2.74 (G3), 2.99 (G4), and 3.24 (G5) Mcal/kg] until they were 9-month-old. After natural breeding, 50 female goats ($30.7{\pm}0.59kg$) were stratified by weight and randomly assigned into 5 groups. They were fed 5 diets varying in ME [2.32 (P1), 2.43 (P2), 2.55 (P3), 2.66 (P4), and 2.78 (P5) Mcal/kg]. The average feed intake ranged between 1.5 and 2.0% of the body weight (BW), and there was no significant difference between the treatment groups with goats in growth or pregnancy phases. Average daily gain (ADG) in diet demand during the growth phase increased with an increasing ME density and ranged from 46 to 69 g/d (p<0.01). Feed conversion ratio (FCR) improved with the ME density during the growth phase (p<0.01). The intercept of the regression equation between ME intake and ADG indicated that energy requirement for maintenance of goats during growth and pregnancy phases was $103.53kcal/BW^{0.75}$ and $102.7kcal/BW^{0.75}$, respectively. These results may serve as a basis for the establishment of goat feeding standards in Korea. Further studies are required to assess the nutrient requirement of goats using various methods for improving accuracy.

Habitat Distribution Change Prediction of Asiatic Black Bears (Ursus thibetanus) Using Maxent Modeling Approach (Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Yang, DooHa;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears' appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears' potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature's annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human's intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China's southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku's border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear's habitat, artificially introduced individual bear's release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.