• Title/Summary/Keyword: Acceptance Probability

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The Reliability Evaluation of TBN Valve Testing Extension in NPP (원자력발전소 터빈밸브 시험주기 연장시 신뢰도평가)

  • Lim, Hyuk-Soon;Lee, Eun-Chan;Lee, Keun-Sung;Hwang, Seok-Won;Seong, Ki-Yeoul
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.3221-3223
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    • 2007
  • Recently, nuclear power plant companies have been extending the turbine valve test interval to reduce the potential of the reactor trip accompanied with a turbine valve test and to improve the NPP's economy through the reduction of unexpected plant trip or decreased operation. In these regards, the extension of the test interval for turbine valves was reviewed in detail. The effect on the destructive overspeed probability due to the test interval change of turbine valves is evaluated by Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) method. Even though the test interval of turbine valves is changed from 1 month to 3 months, the analysis result shows that the reliability of turbine over speed protection system meets acceptance criteria of 1.0E-4/yr. This result will be used as the technical basis on the extension of the test interval for turbine valves. In this paper, the propriety of the turbine valve test interval extension is explained through the review on the turbine valve test interval status of turbine overspeed protection system, the analysis on the annual turbine missile frequency and the probability evaluation of the destructive overspeed due to the test interval extension.

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A Study on the DRF Multipath Multistage Interconnection Network (DRF 다단상호접속망에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Seol;Lim, Chae-Tak
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.130-137
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    • 1990
  • The multipath multistage interconnection network is proposed which has the capability of dynamic rerouting. Construction of the network gets simpler, and the number of stages is reduced to $LOG_{2}$(N), so hardware complexity is reduced. This proposed algorithm makes it possible that destination adresses are used as routing tags, and it is easy to set up the path. Because this proposed network has a dynamic rerouting, backtracking is not necessary to set up another path when conflicts of switch faults are occurred. To estimate a performance, analytic methods are used and it is proved that probability of acceptance is improved in this Multipath MIN.

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Run related probability function and their application to start-up demonstration tests

  • Bi, Yi-Ming;Oh, Jung-Taek;Cho, Gyo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1067-1074
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    • 2016
  • A start-up demonstration test is a mechanism that is usually used to determine the reliability of equipment, for example water pumps, car batteries and power generators. The simplest and oldest start-up demonstration tests are called CS (consecutive successes) which have been studied by Hahn and Gage (1983), Viveros and Balakrishnan (1993).At first Hahn and Gage (1983) discussed the start-up demonstration test. I was based on i.i.d (independently and identically distributed) binary outcomes with the specified number of consecutive successful start-ups. Oh (2016) studied CSNCF (consecutive successful, but not consecutive failures). In this paper, we investigated the CS and CSNCF models, also their applications to start-up demonstration tests. The numerical results showed that the expectations and variances of the total number of attempted start-ups until the acceptance of the unit are gradually increasing in all of the specified number of successes as the p (probability of a successful start-up in an single trial) decreases from 0.99 to 0.90. The difference between means of the CS mode and CSNCF model is small, but variances of the CS and CSNCF are big.

Ship Collision Risk Assessment for Bridges (교량의 선박충돌위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Seong Lo;Bae, Yong Gwi
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted annual frequency of bridge collapse, AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. The analysis procedure is an iterative process in which a trial impact resistance is selected for a bridge component and a computed AF is compared to the acceptance criterion, and revisions to the analysis variables are made as necessary to achieve compliance. The distribution of the AF acceptance criterion among the exposed piers is generally based on the designer's judgment. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions. To determine the design impact lateral resistance of bridge components such pylon and pier, the numerical analysis is performed iteratively with the analysis variable of impact resistance ratio of pylon to pier. The design impact lateral resistance can vary greatly among the components of the same bridge, depending upon the waterway geometry, available water depth, bridge geometry, and vessel traffic characteristics. More researches on the allocation model of AF and the determination of impact resistance are required.

Bayesian Model Selection in the Unbalanced Random Effect Model

  • Kim, Dal-Ho;Kang, Sang-Gil;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.743-752
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we develop the Bayesian model selection procedure using the reference prior for comparing two nested model such as the independent and intraclass models using the distance or divergence between the two as the basis of comparison. A suitable criterion for this is the power divergence measure as introduced by Cressie and Read(1984). Such a measure includes the Kullback -Liebler divergence measures and the Hellinger divergence measure as special cases. For this problem, the power divergence measure turns out to be a function solely of $\rho$, the intraclass correlation coefficient. Also, this function is convex, and the minimum is attained at $\rho=0$. We use reference prior for $\rho$. Due to the duality between hypothesis tests and set estimation, the hypothesis testing problem can also be solved by solving a corresponding set estimation problem. The present paper develops Bayesian method based on the Kullback-Liebler and Hellinger divergence measures, rejecting $H_0:\rho=0$ when the specified divergence measure exceeds some number d. This number d is so chosen that the resulting credible interval for the divergence measure has specified coverage probability $1-{\alpha}$. The length of such an interval is compared with the equal two-tailed credible interval and the HPD credible interval for $\rho$ with the same coverage probability which can also be inverted into acceptance regions of $H_0:\rho=0$. Example is considered where the HPD interval based on the one-at- a-time reference prior turns out to be the shortest credible interval having the same coverage probability.

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The Determinants of Attitudes toward Nuclear Power Plant : The Effects of Earthquake Experience and the Reduction in Electricity Charges (원전 유치에 대한 태도의 결정요인: 지진 경험의 영향 및 전기요금 감면 효과)

  • Kim, Jee Young;Oh, Hyungna
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.139-160
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    • 2018
  • Using survey data of selected 1,349 individuals nationwide in Korea, we measure the influencing factors for the acceptance of nuclear power and estimates the probability of acceptance under several scenarios with different percentages of monetary compensation. Results of panel probit demonstrate that nuclear risk aversion tendency was found to be higher in case of female, younger age, past experience of extreme event such as an earthquake. However, the residents' residency nearby the nuclear power plant was not related to the risk-aversion tendency. In addition, we found that the nuclear acceptance is improved when the monetary compensation rate is increased. Although the policy demand intended to reduce GHG emissions in South Korea, the expansion of nuclear power is not be easy due to the occurrence of recent strong earthquakes because the risk attitude of an individual is influenced by subjective assessments formed through direct and indirect experiences of natural disasters such as an earthquake. Our results suggest that the opposition to construction of nuclear power plant is expected to be further intensified especially when combined with the experiences of threatening earthquakes. As a result, the debate and policy conflicts of nuclear power plants will consistently continue and large social costs are apparent for the acceptance of nuclear power plant.

Usage parameter control mechanism using a virtual buffer for ATM networks (ATM 망에서 가상 버퍼를 이용한 사용자 파라메타 제어 메카니즘)

  • 박창욱;임인칠
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.33A no.2
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 1996
  • This paper proposes a new UPC(usage parameter control) mechanism that varies the token generation rate of leaky bucket by observing virtual buffer, thus achieving an improvement of performance. An acceptance of a call in B-ISDN is determined by call admission control. A UPC that polices the agreed traffic parameters of a call and takes appropriate actions to prevent congestion in networks. The cell loss probability of conventional UPC is far from that of ideal UPC. The proposed mechanism has a better policing ability and response time for nonconforming call. The proposed mechanism uses ON-OFF model as input traffic. The results of simulation show the efficiency of the proposed mechanism.

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Efficient random number generation from extreme tail areas of a t-distribution (t 분포의 극단 꼬리부분으로부터의 효율적인 난수생성)

  • 오만숙;김나영
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.165-177
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    • 1996
  • It is often needed to generate random numbers from truncated t-distributions to carry out Bayesian inferences, especially in Monte Carlo integration for estimation of posterior densities of constrained parameters. However, when the restricted area is an extreme tail area with a small probability most existing random generation methods are not efficient. In this paper, we propose an efficient acceptance-rejection method to generate random numbers from extreme tail areas of a t-distribution. Using some simulation results, we compare the proposed algorithm with other popular methods.

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Development of Mixed Reliability Demonstration Test Plans (혼합형 신뢰성 실증시험계획의 개발)

  • Seo, Sun-Keun
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.170-175
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    • 2015
  • Reliability demonstration tests (RDT's) are widely employed in design verification and process validation stages of industry. New mixed attribute-variable RDT plans that compromise demerits of the corresponding zero and zero or one failure plans which are common in practice are developed for the exponential distribution. The proposed mixed plans are compared with the typical RDT plans in terms of probability of acceptance and expected test termination time. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the mixed plans and a procedure to extend these plans to the Weibull distribution with known shape parameter is also presented.

A Study on Optimal Layout of Two-Dimensional Rectangular Shapes Using Neural Network (신경회로망을 이용한 직사각형의 최적배치에 관한 연구)

  • 한국찬;나석주
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.3063-3072
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    • 1993
  • The layout is an important and difficult problem in industrial applications like sheet metal manufacturing, garment making, circuit layout, plant layout, and land development. The module layout problem is known to be non-deterministic polynomial time complete(NP-complete). To efficiently find an optimal layout from a large number of candidate layout configuration a heuristic algorithm could be used. In recent years, a number of researchers have investigated the combinatorial optimization problems by using neural network principles such as traveling salesman problem, placement and routing in circuit design. This paper describes the application of Self-organizing Feature Maps(SOM) of the Kohonen network and Simulated Annealing Algorithm(SAA) to the layout problem of the two-dimensional rectangular shapes.