• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
• /
• 제10권3호
• /
• pp.63-70
• /
• 2022

This study is to investigate that population change as a result of the decline in population has a correlation with a decrease in crime, with the change in the demographic composition by comparing with two models: model with growth in population and one with the decline in population. We collected demographic data for all cities in Korea from the 2010 Census to 2020 offered by the Korean Statistical Information Service, with crime data comprising serious reported crime events from the Korean Nation Police Agency through requesting data related to the total number of crimes at the same as the period of demographic data. This study can identify the impacts of demographic changes as a result of population change on crime change through a comparative analysis between areas with population growth and ones with population decline. We can confirm that there are differences in determinants of crime between areas with population increase and one with population decrease from the analysis of the impact of demographic change as a result of population change on crime change.

• 농촌계획
• /
• 제25권4호
• /
• pp.99-107
• /
• 2019

This paper analyzed the characteristics of population change from 2000 to 2018 in 466 mountainous areas using resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and projected the population in those areas through 2050 with the cohort change ratio method. The population had dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2009. With the slowing population decrease after 2010, the population has increased gradually since 2014. Especially the population of ages over 65 in 2018 had increased 34% compared to 2000, while the working age population had decreased 29%. This shows that population aging becomes serious problems in the mountainous area. Assuming the cohort change ratios from 2010 to 2015 and child-woman ratio in 2015 remain constant, it appeared that the projected population of the mountainous area dropped to 1.26 million in 2030 and 820,000 in 2050. It is expected to have a population with an inverted pyramid structure showing a gender imbalance with more females in 60's and 70's. Although it continues to show the recent population growth in mountainous area, population in mountainous area is expected to consistently decrease. Therefore, it is required to develop policies and strategies to promote an influx of people into mountainous area for maintaining functionality and sustainability of mountainous areas.

• 한국보육지원학회지
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.169-194
• /
• 2024

Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a child-care support policy strategy in response to the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years. This will be achieved by collecting opinions from a panel of experts on child-care support policies through a Delphi survey. Methods: To achieve the purpose of this study, a panel of 20 experts in child-care policy was selected, and a Delphi survey was conducted over three sessions. Data collected through the Delphi survey underwent analysis, including frequency analysis, descriptive statistics, content validity ratio, coefficient of variation, agreement, and convergence. Data processing was carried out using Excel 2016 and SPSS 26.0. Results: As a result of the study, a child-care support policy strategy addressing the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years was developed, comprising three policy areas, nine policy tasks, and 38 detailed policy tasks. Conclusion/Implications: Based on these results, it is anticipated that the study will not only enable the preparation of a strategy for child-care support policy to address the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years but also offer significant implications for shaping the direction of child-care support policy in alignment with the common good.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• 제30권1호
• /
• pp.33-52
• /
• 2023

This study observes the difference in the actual regional ripple effect of the decrease in admission resources due to the decrease in school age population, which has been weak in empirical studies, and how much the decrease in competition rate by department nationwide provides a significant shock to the decrease in enrollment rate in the population unit. An empirical quantitative analysis was attempted. As a result of applying the panel-tobit regression model, a clear gap was confirmed in the decrease in the registration rate due to the decrease in the competition rate both nationally and in the provinces, and in particular, a highly significant relationship was derived with the decrease in the recruitment rate. In particular, the sensitivity of the risk of unrecruitment due to a decrease in competition rate was the highest in the Jeolla region (0.499), followed by the Gangwon region (0.475) and the Gyeongsang region (0.471), and the metropolitan region (0.158) was confirmed to be the most stable. This suggests that the gap in insufficient funding has gradually widened by region over the past 10 years, and that the shock wave becomes more pronounced in the provinces farther away from the metropolitan area. Based on this study, if we deviate from the standardized application of university development policies for the metropolitan area and regional universities, and present a customized higher education strategy for each region, it will be an opportunity to prevent local extinction due to a decrease in the school-age population and achieve coexistence with higher education institutions and regions at the same time.

• 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
• /
• 제35권4호
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2019

Recently, the city development policies are being switched to the policies focusing on recession worldwide. Even though South Korea is also facing the phenomena that small and medium-sized cities are downsized because of a decrease in population and an aging society problem, there is lack of solutions and even they are still planning city development policies based on prospect of high growth. This study is featuring 4 viewpoints depending on shrinking population trend in 7 small and medium sized local cities, which are chosen as downsized cities. It is dealing with population peak, current population, 2030 population, and 2040 population viewpoints. And this study uses downsizing simulation that suggests optimum area that fits population and then shows visual check of the status of the small and medium sized local cities. The area of the small and medium sized local cities are expanded more than needs when they are on population peak point. However, they need only 20% to 25% of current area in 2030 and 2040. The most important thing is realizing the seriousness and facing up to the 'shrinking' phenomena that each small and medium-sized cities suffer. Therefore, this study has significance for presenting the status of small and medium-sized cities' problems in South Korea.

• 농촌계획
• /
• 제28권4호
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2022

Rural decline due to the decrease of the local population is an inevitable phenomenon, and a vicious cycle has been formed between a lack of basic living services and a population decrease in rural areas. Therefore, the study aims to derive the migration decision-making characteristics based on basic living service infrastructure data in rural areas. To do this, the population change over the past 20 years was categorized into six types, and the relationship between the classified population change types and the number of basic living service infrastructures was analyzed using decision tree analysis. Of the total 3,501 regions, 801 regions were the continuous decline type, of which 740 were rural areas. On the other hand, among 569 regions that were the continuous increase type, 401 regions were urban areas, confirming the population imbalance between rural and urban areas. As a result of the decision tree analysis on the relationship between population change types and the distribution of basic living service infrastructure, the number of daycare centers was derived as an important variable to classify the continuous increase type. Hospitals, parks, and public transportation were also found to be major basic living services affecting the classification of population change types.

• 경제분석
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.133-166
• /
• 2020

우리나라는 1990년대 중반부터 인구 고령화가 급속히 진행되었으며 실질 금리도 꾸준히 하락하였다. 이러한 점을 감안하여 본 연구는 인구 고령화가 실질 금리에 미친 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 먼저 간단한 회귀분석을 통해 기대수명 및 노령인구 부양비율 증가, 인구 증가율 감소 등이 실질 금리 하락에 통계적으로 유의한 영향력을 가지고 있다는 것을 실증적으로 보였다. 이러한 실증 근거에 기반하여 생애주기모형을 구축하고 모형 내의 인구 증가율 및 노령인구 부양비율이 1990년대 중반 이후의 우리나라의 실제 데이터와 유사하게 움직일 경우 실질 금리가 어떻게 변동하지를 시뮬레이션해 보았다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 모형 내의 실질 금리가 1995년 약 9%에서 2018년 약 6%로 하락하는데 이는 실제 실질 금리 하락 폭의 약 3분의 1에 해당한다. 아울러 기대수명이 늘어나는 것이 인구 증가율이 감소하는 것보다 실질 금리 하락에 더 큰 영향을 미쳤던 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
• /
• 제50권1호
• /
• pp.6-15
• /
• 2024

Background: People's activities have been restricted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These changes in activity patterns may lead to a decrease in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations. Additionally, the level of population exposure to PM_2.5 may be changed. Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the impact of population movement and meteorological factors on the distribution of PM_2.5 concentrations before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Methods: The study area was Guro-gu in Seoul. The research period was selected as January to March 2020, a period of significant population movement changes caused by COVID-19. The evaluation of the dynamic population was conducted by calculating the absolute difference in population numbers between consecutive hours and comparing them to determine the daily average. Ambient PM_2.5 concentrations were estimated for each grid using ordinary kriging in Python. For the population exposure assessment, the population-weighted average concentration was calculated by determining the indoor to outdoor population for each grid and applying the indoor to outdoor ratio to the ambient PM_2.5 concentration. To assess the factors influencing changes in the ambient PM_2.5 concentration, a statistical analysis was conducted, incorporating population mobility and meteorological factors. Results: Through statistical analysis, the correlation between ambient PM_2.5 concentration and population movement was positive on both weekends and weekdays (r=0.71, r=0.266). The results confirmed that most of the relationships were positive, suggesting that a decrease in human activity can lead to a decrease in PM_2.5 concentrations. In addition, when population-weighted concentration averages were calculated and the exposure level of the population group was compared before and after the COVID-19 outbreak, the proportion of people exceeding the air quality standard decreased by approximately 15.5%. Conclusions: Human activities can impact ambient concentrations of PM_2.5, potentially altering the levels of PM_2.5 exposure in the population.

• 농촌계획
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.85-94
• /
• 2015

The purpose of this study is to investigate how the hollowization in rural villages which causes marginal villages appears in Korean rural villages and whether the hollowization has relation with decrease and aging of population or not. For achieving the research objective, survey was carried out focused on Geumsan-gun. As a result, it confirmed that rural out-migration and rural decline especially in 'people', 'land(economic situation)' and 'community' have being progressed. Also variance analysis and regression analysis were executed with using the number of population and the ratio of people over 65 as dependent variables and using each survey contents(variables) as independent variables. The results of analysis showed that the ratio of people over 65(+), the income level per household(-), the rate of fallow lands(+), the number of empty houses(+), programs for urban-rural interchange(+), and the implementing public projects(+), etc. have a relation with the number of population(-) and the number of population(-), the income level per household(-), the rate of fallow lands(+), the number of empty houses(+), activities of communities(+), and the implementing public projects(+), etc. have a relation with the ratio of people over 65(+) (+: increase, -: decrease). So the hollowization in people', 'land(economic situation)' and 'community' has direct relation with decrease and aging of population in rural areas.

• 한국농촌건축학회논문집
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.9-16
• /
• 2019

The decrease in population of school age is one of major influencing factor of transformative educational environment. After the nineteen eighties, the population of South Korea has increased step by step, but the population of school age has been decreasing rapidly by low birth rate. As a result, closed school by merger and abolition of small school occurred all over the country. The closed school needed effective function as center of local community. Consequently the purpose of this study is to provide basic data for effective policy making of closed school by comparative analysis of educational environment such as number of students, schools, students per class, status of usage of closed school of the east area and the west area divided by The Tae Baek Mountains in the Gangwon-do, which has the least students in the nationwide. The results of this study are summarized as follows: 1) Gangwon-do has high decreasing rate of population, schools and students compared with other provinces. However it has significantly low number of students per class. 2) The number of students, schools of the west area in Gangwon-do outnumbers that of the east area. However the number of students per class of the east area in Gangwon-do lesser than that of the west area.