• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.393-406
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• 2015

We examine how to model mortality risk using the adaptation of the mean-reverting processes for the two factor model proposed by Cairns et al. (2006b). Mortality improvements have been recently observed in some countries such as United Kingdom; therefore, we assume long-run mortality converges towards a trend at some unknown time and the mean-reverting processes could therefore be an appropriate stochastic model. We estimate the parameters of the two-factor model incorporated with mean-reverting processes by a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to fit United Kingdom mortality data from 1991 to 2015. We forecast the evolution of the mortality from 2014 to 2040 based on the estimation results in order to evaluate the issue price of a longevity bond of 25 years maturity. As an application, we propose a method to quantify the speed of mortality improvement by the average mean reverting times of the processes.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.703-719
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• 2015

We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.27-51
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• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.325-334
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• 2015

Elderly suicide rates tend to be high in Korea. Suicide by the elderly is no longer a personal problem; consequently, further research on risk and regional factors is necessary. Disease mapping in epidemiology estimates spatial patterns for disease risk over a geographical region. In this study, we use a simultaneous conditional autoregressive model for spatial correlations between neighboring areas to estimate standard mortality ratios and mapping. The method is illustrated with cause of death data from 2006 and 2010 to analyze regional patterns of elderly suicide in Korea. By considering spatial correlations, the Bayesian spatial models, mean educational attainment and percentage of the elderly who live alone was the significant regional characteristic for elderly suicide. Gibbs sampling and grid method are used for computation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.468-474
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• 2019

Korea had the highest accident rate among OECD countries in 2018, with 8.4 per 100,000 population, ranking 4th among 35 countries. In addition, the accident rate of traffic with children and the elderly was also high. This study reviewed the relevant literature and analyzed the traffic-accident analysis system. Customized traffic safety facilities were developed. In addition, by measuring the visibility of the traffic safety facilities by installing a test bed, this study measured the forward driving frequency and vehicle driving speed while driving. As a result of applying the "pedestrian pedestrian model" collision test model, the possibility of serious injury after installing the facility was reduced greatly to 4.6%. In this study, the visibility of traffic safety facilities and the effect of reducing the traffic speed were verified through test beds. Recognizing traffic safety facilities will reduce traffic accidents.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.3-19
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to observe the efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources in Korea. For the empirical analysis, we constructed the dataset on age standardized mortality rate, the number of physician, specialist, surgery, medical institution, ratio of general hospitals of 16 provinces in Korea from 2006 to 2013. The panel probability frontier model is employed as an analysis method and considered heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the error in panel data. In addition, the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the 16 provinces, unemployment rate, elderly population ratio, GRDP per capita, and ratio of hospitals in comparison to the general hospitals are used to find the effect on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on supply and demand of medical resources. The results are as follows. First, for the clinical performance, the supply side of human resources such as doctors and specialists and the demand side factors such as chronic illness clinic per unit population have a significant influence, respectively. Second, the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources of each input component was 59-70% in terms of clinical efficiency in each region. Third. estimates of technical efficiency of inputs that affect clinical performance showed a slight increase in all regions during the analysis period, but the increase trend decreased slightly. Fourth, the ratio of the elderly population and GRDP per capita have a positive influence on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources. The difference of each efficiency by region is due to the regional differences of the input medical resources and the combination of them and the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the region. It is understood that the differences in technological efficiency due to the complexity of supply and demand of medical resources, demographic structure and economic difference affecting clinical performance by region are different.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.271-281
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• 2024

Background: The unmet healthcare needs (UHNs) of people with disabilities (PWD) are not only detrimental to their quality of life but also can lead to serious health outcomes including death. A variety of factors including socioeconomic, personal, and environmental factors affect UHNs for PWD. Previous studies focused on individual socioeconomic and disability characteristics as influencing factors. Our studies included environmental factors that have a significant impact on the use of healthcare service by PWD. Methods: We analyzed the UHNs status and influencing factors among 4,326 adults with disabilities using the Korea Disability Life Data. Chisquare analysis identified differences in UHNs by general, disability, and environmental characteristics. Logistic regression determined factors affecting UHNs. Results: Those with low educational level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.229; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.024-1.475), those with low income level (aOR, 1.416; 95% CI, 1.015-1.976), those who enrolled in private insurance (aOR, 1.234; 95% CI, 1.018-1.496), those who need help with daily living (aOR, 1.298; 95% CI, 1.059-1.592), those who did not go out (OR, 1.566; 95% CI, 1.274-1.924), those who use taxis (aOR, 1.407; 95% CI, 1.047-1.891) or call taxi for people with disabilities when going to the hospital (aOR, 1.370; 95% CI, 1.001-1.875), the communication disabled (aOR, 1.304; 95% CI, 1.029-1.651), those with poor subjective health status (aOR, 1.248; 95% CI, 1.043-1.494), those who felt the explanation of treatment results was insufficient (aOR, 4.035; 95% CI, 1.365-11.927), hose dissatisfied with healthcare services (aOR, 3.515; 95% CI, 2.741-4.508) were more likely to experience UHNs. Conclusion: Effective healthcare service provision for PWD requires not only financial assistance but also social support, along with education for healthcare staff, policies that consider the characteristics of disabilities.

• Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.23-37
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• 2007

Background: Even though cervical cancer poses a significant global cancer burden, successful implementations for early detection offer an opportunity to prevent deaths and reduce the cancer burden. In Korea, cervical cancer is the most prevalent type of cancer among adult women, but it is one of the few cancers in which a consensus-approved screening test exists for early diagnosis, Pap test, that can be combined with highly efficacious treatment regimens for early-stage disease. Purpose: This study was carried out to identify the cognitive-behavioral factors associated with cervical cancer screening behavior among adult women, aged 40 to 59, and to develop tailored messages and to evaluate the effectiveness of stage-matched educational program. Method: A total of 283 women who aged 40 years or older was recruited in Seoul, from September, 1st to November, 14th, 2003. The intervention group (N=162) and the control group (N=121) were selected from five sub-districts in Seocho-gu, Seoul. Building on the TTM, a quasi-experimental study was conducted to test the effectiveness of stages-matched intervention addressed at the five stages of cervical cancer screening behavior. Women in the intervention group were randomly assigned to one of two conditions, internet or postal services. Results: In our results, 88.9% of participants had received a Pap test at least once in their life-time, and 65.4% had got it in the past two years. With regard to cognitive-behavioral factors, the stages-matched educational program increased attitude and process of change for cervical cancer screening. The percentage changed was the largest in maintenance stage. With regard to delivery methods for tailored messages, the print materials were more effective at increasing screening adherence than the e-mail. Whereas the postal service group showed remarkable the change of behavior stage, the internet service group did not. Also it was not shown any difference of the satisfaction with stages-matched educational program between internet and postal service groups. Conclusion: This study suggested that cervical cancer screening behavior could be changed by tailored messages which had developed with cognitive-behavioral factors. The stages-matched educational program was effective to promote the screening adherence for cervical cancer.

• Journal of Life Science
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.705-710
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• 2016

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Although several diagnostic and therapeutic tools have been available, CRC remains difficult to complete cure because of insufficient understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying this disease progression. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNA molecules that strongly regulate gene expression via transcriptional and translational control mechanisms. Many crucial cellular pathways are frequently disrupted in cancer development process due to dysregulation of several miRNAs. Mir-31 functions as an oncogene that modulate expression of multiple cancer related genes. Thus, we aimed to demonstrate clinical relevance of miR-31 in human CRC. Quantitative RT-PCR analysis of miR-31 expression was performed in 175 CRC tissues and 16 normal colonic mucosa (NM). Next, we investigated clinical significances of miR-31 expression in various clinicopathologic features in CRC patients cohort. Mir-31 was significantly up-regulated in CRC tissues compared to NM. In CRC tissues, miR-31 expression level was significantly elevated in a stage-dependent manner, which was associated with poor survival in patients with CRC. High miR-31 levels in CRC tissues significantly correlated with poor prognosis (hazard ratio [HR]=2.4) as well as distant metastasis (odds ratio [OR]=2.3). In conclusion, we identified clinical significance of miR-31 expression in CRC. High miR-31 expression may be clinically able to use as a biomarker for CRC prognosis and predicting metastasis.