• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 적합도 모델

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Design of Markov Chain Model for Variable-Length Botnet Traffic Classification (가변 길이의 봇넷 트래픽 분류를 위한 마코브 체인 모델 설계)

  • Lee, Hyun-Jong;Euh, Seong-Yul;Kim, Jeong-Mi;Kim, Jun-Ho;Kim, Young-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2019.10a
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    • pp.968-971
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    • 2019
  • 본 논문에서는 정상과 봇넷 트래픽을 분류하기 위해 트래픽 데이터에서 페이로드 패턴을 추한다. 추출된 가변 길이의 패턴으로 마코브 체인 분류 모델을 학습한다. 마코브 체인 모델은 상태 변이 확률을 계산하며, 봇넷 트래픽에서 나타나는 규칙적인 패턴을 학습하기 적합하다. 모델 성능 개선을 위해서 페이로드 패턴의 최소 길이와 마코브 체인 모델의 최적 상태 수 파라미터를 찾는다. 다중 분류 실험 결과로 약 0.95의 정확도와 0.02의 오탐률을 보였다.

Empirical Approach to Price Modeling in Electricity Market based on Stochastic Process (확률과정론적 기반의 전력시장가격모델링 기법)

  • Kang, Dong-Joo;Kim, Bal-Ho H.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2010
  • As the electric power industry is evolving into competitive market scheme, a new paradigm is required for the operation of market. Traditional dispatch algorithm was built based on the optimization model with an objective function and multiple constraints. Commercial market simulator followed the concept of the microeconomic model used in the dispatch algorithm, which is called as analytic method. On analytic method it is prerequisite to procure the exact data for the simulation. It is not easy anymore for each market participant to access to other participants' financial information while it used to be easy for monopoly decision maker to know all the information needed for the optimal operation. Considering the changing situation, it is required to introduce a new method for estimating the market price. This paper proposes an empirical method based on stochastic processes expected to build a capacity planning and long term contracts.

Core Demand Market by Visitor's Characteristics of Mountain Types of a National Park -focused on Demographic and Social Economical Factors- (국립공원 방문객 특성을 이용한 핵심수요시장연구 -인구통계학적 변인과 사회경제학적 변인을 중심으로-)

  • Gwak, Gang-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.361-368
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    • 2013
  • This research aims to offer the information required for demand increase on marketing strategy level by investigating Mudeungsan visitors' demographic characteristics and social economical variables. To accomplish this study, the proper analyzing model needs to be applied because a grave error of parameters will be led if regression model appropriate for analyzing the data of a continuous probability variable is applied, in case that dependent variable is a discrete random variable which have a discrete probability distribution. Therefore data analysis was performed with Poisson model. However, as the data was showing an overdispersion, parameter was estimated with the Binomial Poisson model able to cover the problem. As a result, some explanatory variables turned out to be significant such as visitor's age, occupation, preferred season to visit, type of company, five days working, and preferring type of tourism. Author could offer to the national park the information about characteristics of core market revealed and marketing strategy for it, based on those influential variables.

Construction of Robust Bayesian Network Ensemble using a Speciated Evolutionary Algorithm (종 분화 진화 알고리즘을 이용한 안정된 베이지안 네트워크 앙상블 구축)

  • Yoo Ji-Oh;Kim Kyung-Joong;Cho Sung-Bae
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1569-1580
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    • 2004
  • One commonly used approach to deal with uncertainty is Bayesian network which represents joint probability distributions of domain. There are some attempts to team the structure of Bayesian networks automatically and recently many researchers design structures of Bayesian network using evolutionary algorithm. However, most of them use the only one fittest solution in the last generation. Because it is difficult to combine all the important factors into a single evaluation function, the best solution is often biased and less adaptive. In this paper, we present a method of generating diverse Bayesian network structures through fitness sharing and combining them by Bayesian method for adaptive inference. In order to evaluate performance, we conduct experiments on learning Bayesian networks with artificially generated data from ASIA and ALARM networks. According to the experiments with diverse conditions, the proposed method provides with better robustness and adaptation for handling uncertainty.

Bundle Block Adjustment of Omni-directional Images by a Mobile Mapping System (모바일매핑시스템으로 취득된 전방위 영상의 광속조정법)

  • Oh, Tae-Wan;Lee, Im-Pyeong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.593-603
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    • 2010
  • Most spatial data acquisition systems employing a set of frame cameras may have suffered from their small fields of view and poor base-distance ratio. These limitations can be significantly reduced by employing an omni-directional camera that is capable of acquiring images in every direction. Bundle Block Adjustment (BBA) is one of the existing georeferencing methods to determine the exterior orientation parameters of two or more images. In this study, by extending the concept of the traditional BBA method, we attempt to develop a mathematical model of BBA for omni-directional images. The proposed mathematical model includes three main parts; observation equations based on the collinearity equations newly derived for omni-directional images, stochastic constraints imposed from GPS/INS data and GCPs. We also report the experimental results from the application of our proposed BBA to the real data obtained mainly in urban areas. With the different combinations of the constraints, we applied four different types of mathematical models. With the type where only GCPs are used as the constraints, the proposed BBA can provide the most accurate results, ${\pm}5cm$ of RMSE in the estimated ground point coordinates. In future, we plan to perform more sophisticated lens calibration for the omni-directional camera to improve the georeferencing accuracy of omni-directional images. These georeferenced omni-directional images can be effectively utilized for city modelling, particularly autonomous texture mapping for realistic street view.

Estimation of Resistance Bias Factors for the Ultimate Limit State of Aggregate Pier Reinforced Soil (쇄석다짐말뚝으로 개량된 지반의 극한한계상태에 대한 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.

A Study on the Battle Pass Improvement Plan Suitable for MMORPG (MMORPG에 적합한 배틀패스 개선 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Min-Jun;Lee, Jong-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2020.07a
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    • pp.513-515
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    • 2020
  • 온라인 게임에서 기존에 가장 활발하게 사용되었던 비즈니스 모델인 확률형 아이템에 대한 문제가 제기되고 법적인 제재가 가해지면서 우리나라 게임 산업은 부분유료화 방식의 온라인게임, 그 중에서도 큰 비중을 차지하는 MMORPG에 어울리는 새로운 비즈니스 모델을 찾아야 한다. 본 논문에서는 새로운 비즈니스 모델로 FPS와 MOBA 장르에서 활발하게 사용되고 있는 '배틀패스' 시스템을 분석하고 이를 MMORPG에 적용하기 위해서는 어떻게 개선해야 하는지 방법을 제안한다.

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Performance estimation for Software Reliability Growth Model that Use Plot of Failure Data (고장 데이터의 플롯을 이용한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 성능평가)

  • Jung, Hye-Jung;Yang, Hae-Sool;Park, In-Soo
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.10D no.5
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    • pp.829-836
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    • 2003
  • Software Reliability Growth Model that have been studied variously. But measurement of correct parameter of this model is not easy. Specially, estimation of correct model about failure data must be establish and estimation of parameter can consist exactly. To get correct testing, we calculate the normal score and describe the normal probability plot. Use the normal probability plot, we estimate the distribution for failure data. In this paper, we estimate the software reliability growth model for through the normal probability plot. In this research, we applies software reliability growth model through distribution characteristics of failure data. If we see plot, we determine the software reliability growth model, we can make sure superior in model's performance estimation.

파편탄약의 효과측정방법 및 요망효과에 대한 탄약 소요산출절차

  • 김충영
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 1984
  • 현재 한국군에서 적용하고 있는 파편탄약의 효과를 측정하는 방법은 대체로 3가지로 구분할 수 있다. 그 하나는 일발명중확률을 산정하여 사용하는 방법이고 두째는 연합무기효과 매뉴얼 (JMEM)에서 사용되는 방법이며 세째는 사상자 평가모델(CAM)에서 사용되는 방법이다. 이들 세기법은 군에서 흔히 사용되고 있으나 그 장단점을 평가함이 없이 사용되어 온 감이 없지 않다. 따라서 이들 기법의 이론적 배경을 검토하고 단점을 분석하여 장차 한국지역에 적합한 기법으로 개선발전 되어야 할 분야를 기술자료면과 기법면으로 구분하여 제시한다.

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Statistical Analysis of Call Interarrival Time and Channel Holding Time in Cellular Telephony Network (이동전화망에서 호 도착 시간과 채널 보류 시간의 통계적 분석)

  • 엄태랑;장주욱;이경근
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.04d
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    • pp.478-480
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    • 2003
  • 일반적으로 음성전화망에서 수학적 모델을 사용하여 트래픽 분석을 수행하는 경우 호 도착 시간과 채널 보류 시간은 지수 분포라고 가정한다. 본 논문에서는 이동전화망을 구성하고 있는 교환기에서 추출한 과금 데이터를 이용하여 호 발생으로 인해 집계되는 호량애 관한 호 도착 시간과 채널 보류 시간이 나타내는 분포를 알아본다. 또한 분석된 확률 분포를 통계적 검정 방법을 이용하여 경험분포함수에 대한 기대 분포함수의 적합성을 판별한다.

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