• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 시험

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The Fatigue Life Evaluation of Aged Continuous Welded Rail on the Urban Railway (도시철도 장기 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kong, Sun-Young;Sung, Deok-Yong;Park, Yong-Gul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2013
  • As a result of recent research, it is reported that the periodic replacements criterion of rails is able to extend as grinding rail surface and using the continuous welded rail (CWR). In this study, we carried out fatigue tests on existing laid rails. Based on the test results, an S-N curve expressing the remaining life of laid rails at a fracture probability of 50% was obtained using weighted probit analysis suitable for small-sample fatigue data sets. As rails used for testing had different histories in terms of accumulated tonnage, the test data were corrected to average out the accumulated tonnage. We estimated the remaining service lives for laid rails on the urban railway using equations developed in the past to estimate rail base bending stress and that surface irregularities into consideration. Therefore, estimating the remaining service life of laid rails showed that the rail replacement period could be extended over 200 MGT, although it is necessary to remove longitudinal rail surface irregularities at welds by grinding. Also, the fatigue test results under fatigue limit, Haibach's rule appling half slope of S-N curve under the fatigue limit was considered more reasonable than modified Miner's rule for estimating rail fatigue life.

Estimation of Pile Resistance Factor by CPT Based Pile Capacity (CPT결과를 이용한 항타말뚝 지지력 평가를 위한 저항계수 산정)

  • Kim Dae-Ho;Lee Jun-Hwan;Kim Bum-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2005
  • Application of Limit State Design in geotechnical engineering has become world-widely popular. While LRFD code in the North America presents geotechnical load and resistance factors, the values of resistance factors proposed by these methods are still unstable with limited application. CPT has been widely used for the pile design and various methods have been proposed to estimate the bearing capacity of piles. In this paper, resistance factors for representative pile design methods based on CPT results are evaluated. Field pile load test and CPT results were collected and analyzed in order to obtain necessary statistical data and resistance factors. Resistance factors of the base, shaft, and total capacity are estimated. From fisrt order second moment (FOSM) analysis, resistance factors of $0.30{\sim}0.55$ are estimated for total load capacity.

Life Estimation of Elevator Wire Ropes Using Accelerated Degradation Test Data (가속열화시험 데이터를 활용한 엘리베이터 와이어로프 수명 예측)

  • Kim, Seung Ho;Kim, Sang Boo;Kim, Sung Ho;Ham, Sung Hoon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.997-1004
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    • 2017
  • The life of elevator wire ropes is one of the most important characteristics of an elevator, which is closely related to the safety of users and its maintenance policy. It is not cost effective to measure the lifetime of elevator wire ropes during their use. In this study, the life estimation of elevator wire ropes (8x19W-IWRC) is considered using accelerated degradation test data. A bending fatigue tester is used to perform the accelerated degradation tests, incorporating the acceleration factor of tensile force. Assuming that the life of wire ropes is log-normally distributed, two life estimation methods are suggested and their results are compared. The first method estimates the life of wire ropes utilizing the accelerated life model with pseudo lives obtained from a linear regression model. The second method estimates the life using a logistic model based on failure probability.

A Study on Method of Decreasing Accident of Propulsion System according do LOX Contamination (액화산소(LOX) 오염으로 인한 추진기관 사고발생 저감방법에 대한 연구)

  • Yu, Byung-Il;Bershadskiy, V.A.;Kim, Sang-Heon;Lee, Jung-Ho;Kim, Yong-Wook;Oh, Seung-Hyub
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.10 no.4 s.33
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2006
  • A study was conducted to investigate the problem caused by the mechanical particles in LOX system during operating and testing propulsion system, especially concentrated on effects of contaminants accumulation and transfer in LOX system. Several methods for system operation decreasing accidents caused by oxidizer Beakage and contaminants accumulation was investigated. These methods can be applied to LOX system and other propellants system in liquid propellants propulsion system.

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Neural acquisition system of DS/SS communication system using binary neural network (이진 신경회로망을 이용한 DS/SS에서의 초기 동기 신경 시스팀)

  • 한동수;박승권
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.2991-3000
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, an effective neural acquisition system is suggested for acquisition of the DS/SS communication system. The suggested system uses a binary neural network which geometrically analyzes and learns a given PN sequence in the binary field. the probabilities of detection and false alarm are obtained and are compared to simulation values. The equation of the mean acquisition time is derived and is compared to the doubledwell time of the serial serial search system. The significant improvement of the performance is demonstrated. As the length of synchronization sequence becomes longer and the number is increased, the performance is improved.

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On the Recognition of the Occluded Objects Using Matching Probability (정합확률을 이용한 겹쳐진 물체의 인식에 대하여)

  • Nam, Ki-Gon;lee, Soo-Dong;Lee, Ryang-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 1989
  • The recognition of partially occluded objects is of prime importance for industrial machine vision applications and to solve real provlems in factory automation. This paper describes a method tc solve the problem of occlusion in a two dimensional scene. The technique consists of three steps: searching of border, extracting of line segments and clustering of hypotheses by matching probability. Computer simulation results have been tested for 20 scenes contained the 80 models, and have obtained 95% of properly correct recognition rate on the average.

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Study on Bridge Dynamic Responses under Vehicle Loads (차량하중에 의한 교량의 동적응답특성 분석)

  • 김상효;박흥석;윤성호
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 1997
  • The dynamic responses of highway bridges are varying depending on the features of either traveling vehicles or bridges. In this study, the probabilistic characteristics of dynamic amplification factors of highway bridges due to traveling heavy vehicles have been examined through analytical simulation processes. The truck with tandem axle and tractor with semitrailer are selected as the representative heavy vehicles, which are modeled with three dimensional 7-DOF and 12-DOF models, respectively. The analytical results have been compared with the experimental results of dynamic loading tests and the validity of the analytical models has been examined. Parametric studies on the means and extreme values of amplification factors have been performed with various traffic conditions such as vehicle types, vehicle weights, surface profiles, number of loading vehicles, loading positions, etc.

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Speaker Normalization using Gaussian Mixture Model for Speaker Independent Speech Recognition (화자독립 음성인식을 위한 GMM 기반 화자 정규화)

  • Shin, Ok-Keun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.12B no.4 s.100
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    • pp.437-442
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    • 2005
  • For the purpose of speaker normalization in speaker independent speech recognition systems, experiments are conducted on a method based on Gaussian mixture model(GMM). The method, which is an improvement of the previous study based on vector quantizer, consists of modeling the probability distribution of canonical feature vectors by a GMM with an appropriate number of clusters, and of estimating the warp factor of a test speaker by making use of the obtained probabilistic model. The purpose of this study is twofold: improving the existing ML based methods, and comparing the performance of what is called 'soft decision' method with that of the previous study based on vector quantizer. The effectiveness of the proposed method is investigated by recognition experiments on the TIMIT corpus. The experimental results showed that a little improvement could be obtained tv adjusting the number of clusters in GMM appropriately.

Effects of Human Error on the Optimal Test Internal and Unavailability of the Safety System (안전계통의 이용불능도 및 최적시험주기에 미치는 인간실수의 영향)

  • Chung, Dae-Wook;Koo, Bon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.174-182
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    • 1991
  • Effects of human error relevant to the periodic test are incorporated in the evaluations of the unavailability and optimal test interval of a safety system. Two types of possible human error with respect to the test and maintenance are considered. One is the possibility that a good safety system is inadvertently left in a bad state after test(Type A human error) and the other is the possibility that a bad safety system is undetected upon the test(Type B human error). An event tree model is developed for the steady-state unavailability of a safety system in order to determine the effects of human errors on the system unavailability and the optimal test interval. A reliability analysis of the Safety Injection System (SIS) was peformed to evaluate the effects of human error on the SIS unavailability. Results of various sensitivity analyses show that ; (1) the steady-state unavailability of the safety system increases as the probabilities of both types of human error increase and it is far more sensitive to Type A human error, (2) the optimal test interval increases slightly as the probability of Type A human error increases but it decreases as the probability of Type B human error increases, and (3) provided that the test interval of the safety injction pump is kept unchanged, the unavailability of SIS increases significantly as the probability of Type A human error increases but slightly as the probability of Type B human error increases. Therefore, to obtain the realistic result of reliability analysis, one should take shorter test interval (not optimal test interval) so that the unavailability of SIS can be maintained at the same level irrespective of human error. Since Type A human error during test & maintenance influeces greatly on the system unavailability, special efforts to reduce the possibility of Type A human error are essential in the course of test & maintenance.

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Development of a Logistic Regression Model for Probabilistic Prediction of Debris Flow (토석류 산사태 예측을 위한 로지스틱 회귀모형 개발)

  • 채병곤;김원영;조용찬;김경수;이춘오;최영섭
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.211-222
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    • 2004
  • In this study, a probabilistic prediction model for debris flow occurrence was developed using a logistic regression analysis. The model can be applicable to metamorphic rocks and granite area. order to develop the prediction model, detailed field survey and laboratory soil tests were conducted both in the northern and the southern Gyeonggi province and in Sangju, Gyeongbuk province, Korea. The seven landslide triggering factors were selected by a logistic regression analysis as well as several basic statistical analyses. The seven factors consist of two topographic factors and five geological and geotechnical factors. The model assigns a weight value to each selected factor. The verification results reveal that the model has 90.74% of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to predict landslide occurrence in a probabilistic and quantitative manner.