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Development of a Logistic Regression Model for Probabilistic Prediction of Debris Flow  

채병곤 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부)
김원영 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부)
조용찬 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부)
김경수 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부)
이춘오 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부)
최영섭 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부)
Publication Information
The Journal of Engineering Geology / v.14, no.2, 2004 , pp. 211-222 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, a probabilistic prediction model for debris flow occurrence was developed using a logistic regression analysis. The model can be applicable to metamorphic rocks and granite area. order to develop the prediction model, detailed field survey and laboratory soil tests were conducted both in the northern and the southern Gyeonggi province and in Sangju, Gyeongbuk province, Korea. The seven landslide triggering factors were selected by a logistic regression analysis as well as several basic statistical analyses. The seven factors consist of two topographic factors and five geological and geotechnical factors. The model assigns a weight value to each selected factor. The verification results reveal that the model has 90.74% of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to predict landslide occurrence in a probabilistic and quantitative manner.
Keywords
debris flow; probabilistic prediction; logistic regression; landslide prediction model;
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