• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률논리

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Future Trend Impact Analysis Based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS 접근방식에 의한 미래 트랜드 충격 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Gil;Moon, Kyung-Il;Choi, Se-Ill
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.499-505
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    • 2015
  • Trend Impact Analysis(: TIA) is an advanced forecasting tool used in futures studies for identifying, understanding and analyzing the consequences of unprecedented events on future trends. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is a kind of artificial neural network that integrates both neural networks and fuzzy logic principles, It is considered to be a universal estimator. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(: ANFIS). The key idea of the paper is to enhance the generic process of reasoning with fuzzy logic and neural network by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes. An ANFIS approach is used to identify the occurrence and severity of an event, depending on the values of its trigger attributes. The trigger attributes can be calculated by a stochastic dynamic model; then different scenarios are generated using Monte-Carlo simulation. To compare the proposed method, a simple simulation is provided concerning the impact of river basin drought on the annual flow of water into a lake.

An Analysis of Intuitive Thinking of Elementary Students in Mathematical Problem Solving Process (수학 문제해결 과정에 나타난 초등학생들의 직관적 사고 분석)

  • You, Dae-Hyun;Kang, Wan
    • Education of Primary School Mathematics
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2009
  • The purposes of this study are to analyze elementary school student's intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving and to analyze elementary school student's errors of intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving. According to these purposes, the research questions can be set up as followings. (1) How is the state of illumination of the elementary school student's intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving? (2) What are origins of errors by elementary school student's intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving? In this study, Bogdan & Biklen's qualitative research method were used. The subjects in this study were 4 students who were attending the elementary school. The data in this study were 'Intuitine Thinking Test', records of observation and interview. In the interview, the discourses were recorded by sound and video recording. These were later transcribed and analyzed in detail. The findings of this study were as follows: First, If Elementary school student Knows the algorithm of problem, they rely on solving by algorithm rather than solving by intuitive thinking. Second, their problem solving ability by intuitive model are low. What is more they solve the problem by Intuitive model, their Self- Evidence is low. Third, in the process of solving the problem, intuitive thinking can complement logical thinking. Last, in the concept of probability and problem of probability, they are led into cognitive conflict cause of subjective interpretation.

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Visualization of Korean Speech Based on the Distance of Acoustic Features (음성특징의 거리에 기반한 한국어 발음의 시각화)

  • Pok, Gou-Chol
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2020
  • Korean language has the characteristics that the pronunciation of phoneme units such as vowels and consonants are fixed and the pronunciation associated with a notation does not change, so that foreign learners can approach rather easily Korean language. However, when one pronounces words, phrases, or sentences, the pronunciation changes in a manner of a wide variation and complexity at the boundaries of syllables, and the association of notation and pronunciation does not hold any more. Consequently, it is very difficult for foreign learners to study Korean standard pronunciations. Despite these difficulties, it is believed that systematic analysis of pronunciation errors for Korean words is possible according to the advantageous observations that the relationship between Korean notations and pronunciations can be described as a set of firm rules without exceptions unlike other languages including English. In this paper, we propose a visualization framework which shows the differences between standard pronunciations and erratic ones as quantitative measures on the computer screen. Previous researches only show color representation and 3D graphics of speech properties, or an animated view of changing shapes of lips and mouth cavity. Moreover, the features used in the analysis are only point data such as the average of a speech range. In this study, we propose a method which can directly use the time-series data instead of using summary or distorted data. This was realized by using the deep learning-based technique which combines Self-organizing map, variational autoencoder model, and Markov model, and we achieved a superior performance enhancement compared to the method using the point-based data.

Design of An Improved Trust Model for Mutual Authentication in USN (USN 상호인증을 위한 개선된 신용모델 설계)

  • Kim Hong-Seop;Lee Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.10 no.6 s.38
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    • pp.239-252
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    • 2005
  • Ubiquitous Sensor Network(USN) , the core technology for the Ubiquitous environments ,must be operated in the restrictive battery capacity and computing. From this cause, USN needs the lightweight design for low electric energy and the minimum computing. The previous mutual authentication. based on J$\emptyset$sang's trust model, in USN has a character that makes the lightweight mutual authentication possible in conformity with minimum computing. But, it has an imperfection at the components of representing the trust from a lightweight point of view. In this paper, we improve on the J$\emptyset$sang's trust model to apply a lightweight mutual authentication in USN. The proposed trust model in USN defines the trust information with the only degree of trust-entity(x)'s belief. The defined trust information has a superiority over the J$\emptyset$sang's trust model from a computing Point of view. because it computes information by Probability and logic operation(AND).

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A Study for Pedestrian's Safety: Relating to TPB (무단횡단을 하는 보행자의 안전을 위한 연구: TPB를 중심으로)

  • Chang, Kyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.180-194
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    • 2015
  • On roads vehicles are the bossy, while pedestrians are the frangible. The current paper has a purpose for contributing to pedestrian's safety. First, it studies the association between demographic parameters and TPB(Theory of Planned Behavior)'s variables(pedestrian's attitude toward crossing behavior in roads, personal norm, etc.) and his/her crossing intention, perceived risk while crossing, and the experience of past traffic accidents. Its sample comes from a specific population(college students). Further, the present study endeavors to explain the portion of human cognitive failure/error, impulsiveness, time perspective, and probabilistic/math-logical judgment ability in pedestrian's riky crossings on roads. Research results found that TPB variables and such a few human characteristics have some significant association with the risky crossing intention on the road. Considering the human psychological portion in pedestrian accidents would help us prevent the accidents and reduce unhappiness of the accidents and, further, economic loss and insurance expenditure related with the accidents.

A Caching Mechanism for Knowledge Maps (지식 맵을 위한 캐슁 기법)

  • 정준원;민경섭;김형주
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.282-291
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    • 2004
  • There has been many researches in TopicMap and RDF which are approach to handle data efficiently with metadata. However, No researches has been performed to service and implement except for presentation and description. In this paper, We suggest the caching mechanism to support an efficient access of knowledgemap and practical knowledgemap service with implementation of TopicMap system. First, We propose a method to navigate Knowledgemap efficiently that includes advantage of former methods. Then, To transmit TopicMap efficiently, We suggest caching mechanism for knowledgemap. This method is that user will be able to navigate knowledgemap efficiently in the viewpoint of human, not application. Therefor the mechanism doesn't cash topics by logical or physical locality but clustering by information and characteristic value of TopicMap. Lastly, we suggest replace mechanism by using graph structure of TopicMap for efficiency of transmission.

Symmetry structured RC6 block cipher algorithm (대칭구조RC6블록 암호 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Gil-Ho;Park, Chang-Soo;Kim, Jong-Nam;Cho, Gyeong-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.675-683
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    • 2009
  • RC6 which has different algorithm of encryption and decryption has been proposed to have the same algorithm between encryption and decryption through inserting symmetry layer using simple rotate and logical operation. That means the half of whole RC6 round uses encryption algorithm and the rest of it uses decryption one and symmetry layer has been put into the middle of encryption and decryption. The proposed RC6 algorithm has no difference with the original one in the speed of process. However it is quite safe because by inserting symmetry layer the path of high probability which is needed for differential and linear analysis is cut off so that it is hard to be analyzed. The proposed symmetry layer algorithm can be easily applied to the algorithm which has different encryption and decryption and make it same, and it can be good idea to be used to design a new block cipher algorithm.

Encryption/Decryption the same improved RC6 algorithm (암호/복호를 동일하게 개선한 RC6 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Gil-Ho;Kim, Jong-Nam;Cho, Gyeong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.247-250
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    • 2008
  • RC6 which has different algorithm of encryption and decryption has been implemented to have the same algorithm between encryption' and decryption though inserting symmetry layer using simple rotate and logical operation. That means the half of whole RC6 round uses encryption algorithm and the rest of it uses decryption one and symmetry layer has been put into the middle of encryption and decryption. The proposed RC6 algorithm has no difference with the original one in the speed of process. However it is quite safe because by inserting symmetry layer the path of high probability which is needed for differential and linear analysis is cut oft so that it is hard to be analyzed. The proposed algorithm can be easily applied to the algorithm which has different encryption and decryption an make it same, and it can be good idea to be used to design a new block cipher algorithm.

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Risk Value Calculation Method for Moderate Risk Concentration Type at Qualitative Risk Analysis Phase (정성적 위험분석 단계에서 중간위험 집중형 위험도 산정 방법)

  • Kim, Seon-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2015
  • The risk analysis phase of construction risk management process is subdivided into the qualitative risk analysis that plays a major role, and the quantitative risk analysis acting as a supportive role. The traditional calculation method for quantifying a risk value that has been applied so far is an equation to multiply a probability by an impact simply, but its result shows the low risk value biased distribution. Although another equation that shows the high risk biased distribution as an alternative of traditional method was proposed, both of the low or high risk biased equations do not match with the statistical general knowledge that most natural phenomenons are close to the normal distribution. This study proposes a new risk value calculation method that is concentrated to the moderate risk value. Because the risk value distribution by a new method shows a normal shape similar to natural phenomenon, it helps to choose a middle level not biased to the low or high levels when choosing the level of risk response. Furthermore, it could contribute to improve the flexibility and rationality of risk analysis method by providing additional options for the risk value calculation.

A Flexible Line-Fitting ICM Approach for Takbon Image Restoration (유연한 선부합 ICM 방식에 의한 탁본영상복원)

  • Hwang, Jae-Ho
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.13B no.5 s.108
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    • pp.525-532
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    • 2006
  • This paper proposes a new class of image restoration on the Ising modeled binary 'Takbon' image by the flexible line-fitting ICM(Iterated conditional modes) method. Basically 'Takbon' image need be divided into two extreme regions, information and background one due to its stroke combinations. The main idea is the line process, comparing with the conventional ICM approaches which were based on partially rectangular structured point process. For calculating geometrical mechanism, we have defined line-fitting functions at each current pixel array which form the set of linear lines with gradients and lengths. By applying the Bayes' decision to this set, the region of the current pixel is decided as one of the binary levels. In this case, their statistical reiteration for distinct tracking between intra and extra region offers a criterion to decide the attachment at each step. Finally simulations using the binary 'Takbon' image are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new algorithm