• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률강우강도

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A Study on the Difference of Rainfall Intensity According to the Omission of Short-Term (20, 30, 40, 50 Minutes) Rainfall Data in Inducing I-D-F Curves (I-D-F곡선 유도 시 짧은 지속기간(20분, 30분, 40분, 50분) 강우자료 누락에 따른 강우강도 차이 고찰)

  • Lee, Hee Chang;Seong, Kee Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2020
  • I-D-F curves were induced by Box-Cox transformation using rainfall data from five major cities in Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Daejeon, and Gwangju, as well as from Sancheong (South Gyeongsang province) and Yeongcheon (North Gyeongsang province) stations. The practicality of the Box-Cox transformation is more scalable than the traditional method of frequency analysis in terms of applicability because it is available even if the analysis data are insufficient to perform general frequency analysis and do not produce an appropriate probability density function. For the case in which rainfall data for the entire period (10-1440 minutes) and short-term period (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes) at the foregoing 7 stations are omitted, there was a relative error of -23.0 % to 14.7 % at a duration of 10 to 60 minutes below the 100-year frequency. Accordingly, rainfall analysis requires inducing I-D-F curves, including for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), and if rainfall data are omitted for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), it is necessary to increase the existing margin rate depending on the point in order to ensure the safe design of small-scale hydraulic structures.

Assessment of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation in Cheoncheon Basin Considering Hourly Rainfall (시강우를 고려한 천천유역의 토양침식 및 퇴적 평가)

  • Kim, Seongwon;Lee, Daeeop;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2020
  • In recent years, the frequency of heavy rainfall associated with high rainfall intensity has been continuously increasing due to the effects of climate change; and thus also causes an increase in watershed soil erosion. The existing estimation techniques, used for the prediction of soil erosion in Korea have limitations in predicting the: average soil erosion in watersheds, and the soil erosion associated with abnormal short-term rainfall events. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of torrential rainfall, and utilize physics-based model to accurately determine the soil erosion characteristics of a watershed. In this study, the rainfall kinetic energy equation, in the form of power function, is proposed by applying the probability density function, to analyze the rainfall particle distribution. The distributed rainfall-erosion model, which utilizes the proposed rainfall kinetic energy equation, was utilized in this study to determine the soil erosion associated with various typhoon events that occurred at Cheoncheon watershed. As a result, the model efficiency parameters of the model for NSE and RMSE are 0.036 and 4.995 ppm, respectively. Therefore, the suggested soil erosion model, coupled with the proposed rainfall-energy estimation, shows accurate results in predicting soil erosion in a watershed due to short-term rainfall events.

Analysis of the effect of climate change on IDF curves using scale-invariance technique: focus on RCP 8.5 (Scale-Invariance 기법을 이용한 IDF 곡선의 기후변화 영향 분석: RCP 8.5를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jeonghyeon;Lee, Okjeong;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.995-1006
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    • 2016
  • According to 5th IPCC Climate Change Report, there is a very high likelihood that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will increase. In reality, flood damage has increased, and it is necessary to estimate the future probabilistic design rainfall amount that climate change is reflected. In this study, the future probabilistic design precipitation amount is estimated by analyzing trends of future annual maximum daily rainfall derived by RCP 8.5 scenarios and using the scale-invariance technique. In the first step, after reviewing the time-scale characteristics of annual maximum rainfall amounts for each duration observed from 60 sites operating in Korea Meterological Administration, the feasibility of the scale-invariance technique are examined using annual daily maximum rainfall time series simulated under the present climate condition. Then future probabilistic design rainfall amounts for several durations reflecting the effects of climate change are estimated by applying future annual maximum daily rainfall time series in the IDF curve equation derived by scale-invariance properties. It is shown that the increasing trend on the probabilistic design rainfall amount has resulted on most sites, but the decreasing trend in some regions has been projected.

Evaluation of Runoff‧Peak Rate Runoff and Sediment Yield under Various Rainfall Intensities and Patterns Using WEPP Watershed Model (다양한 강우강도 및 패턴에 따른 WEPP 모형의 유출‧첨두유출‧토양유실량 평가)

  • Choi, Jae-Wan;Ryu, Ji-Chul;Kim, Ik-Jae;Lim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.795-804
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    • 2012
  • Recently, changes in rainfall intensity and patterns have been causing increasing soil loss worldwide. As a result, the water ecosystem becomes worse and crops yield are reduced with soil loss and nutrient loss with it. Many studies have been proposed to estimate runoff and soil loss to predict or decrease non-point source pollution. Although the USLE has been used for many years in estimating soil losses, the USLE cannot reflect effects on soil loss of changes in rainfall intensity and patterns. The WEPP, physically based model, is capable of predicting soil loss and runoff using various rainfall intensity. In this study, the WEPP model was simulated for sediment yield, runoff and peak runoff using data of 5, 10, 30, 60 minute term rainfall, Huff's method and design rainfall. In case of rainfall interval of 5 minutes and 60 minutes, the sediment and runoff values decreased by 24% and 19%, respectively. The peak rate runoff values decreased by 16% when rainfall interval changed from 5 minutes to 60 minutes, indicating the peak rate runoff values are affected by rainfall intensity to some degrees. As a result of simulating using Huff's method, all values (sediment yield, runoff, peak runoff) were found to be the greatest at third quartile. According to the analysis under various design rainfall conditions (2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200, 300 years frequency), sediment yield, runoff, and peak runoff of 906.2%, 249.4% and 183.9% were estimated using 2 year to 300 year frequency rainfall data.

A Comparative Analysis of Radar Rainfall Estimation Method (레이더 강수산정기법의 비교분석)

  • Yoon, Seong-Sim;Kim, Jin-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.632-636
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 레이더 강수를 산정하는 기법을 비교.분석하고자 하였다. 레이더 강수산정기법의 비교는 레이더 반사도를 강우강도로 변환시키는 두가지 Z-R 관계식 산정방법을 기준으로 구분하여 수행하였다. Z-R 관계식 산정방법 중 첫번째는 지상강우계와 대응되는 레이더 격자 사이의 관계를 통해서 Z-R 관계식을 산출하여 레이더 강수를 산정하는 Least-Square Fitting 방법이고, 두번째 방법은 강우량계에서 관측된 강우량과 이에 근접한 영역에서 얻은 레이더 반사도 자료 각각의 확률밀도함수를 대응시켜 Z-R 관계식을 산출하는 WPMM(Window Probability Matching Method)을 적용하는 방법이다. 이 두 방법의 비교를 위해 2003년 6월에서 8월사이의 두 강우사상을 선택하여 Z-R 관계식을 산정하였으며, 산정된 Z-R 관계식으로 추정된 레이더 강수의 기상학적 검증을 통해 정성적.정량적으로 검토하였다. 한반도 전역에 대하여 산정된 레이더 추정강수를 검토한 결과 대체적으로 정확도 및 상관성 측면에서 WPMM 방법이 Least-Square Fitting 방법보다 정확한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 도시 유역의 홍수예경보에 적합한 레이더 강수산정기법을 파악하고자 중랑천 유역의 레이더 강수를 수문학적으로 분석한 결과 WPMM 방법이 보다 유효한 것으로 검토되었다.

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Problem and Improvement in Design of Drainage Pipe for Bridges (교량용 배수관경 국내기준의 문제점 및 개선안)

  • Hong, Kee-Jeung;Oh, Chang-Kook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2011
  • Recently, the cause of flood damage has been the local torrential rainfalls rather than a total amount of yearly rainfalls. The domestic design code of drainage pump is being improved by considering the effect of local torrential rainfalls, while there is no consideration on the local torrential rainfalls in the domestic design code of bridge-deck drainage. Compared with the code of Federal Highway Administration in USA, no rational bases are specified in the domestic design code of bridge-deck drainage. This paper proposes the reasonable design guideline for bridge-deck drainage considering the effect of local torrential rainfalls.

The application of reliability analysis for the design of storm sewer (우수관의 설계를 위한 신뢰성해석기법의 적용)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Jaea;Lee, Kyung Je
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.887-893
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the optimum design technology is suggested by using reliability analysis method. Nowadays, urban flood inundation is easily occurred because of local heavy rain. Traditional deterministic design method for storm sewer may underestimate the size of pipe. Therefore, stochastic method for the storm sewer design is necessary to solve this problem. In the present study, reliability model using FORM (First Order Reliability Method) was developed for the storm sewer. Developed model was applied to the real storm sewers of 5 different areas. Probability of exceeding capacity has been calculated and construction costs according to diameter have been compared. Probability of exceeding capacity of storm sewers of 5 areas have been calculated after estimating the return period of rainfall intensity.

Regional Frequency Analysis for Future Precipitation from RCP Scenarios (대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 미래 강수량의 지역빈도해석)

  • Kim, Duck Hwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Choi, Chang Hyun;Han, Dae Gun;Lee, So Jong;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2015
  • Variability of precipitation pattern and intensity are increasing due to the urbanization and industrialization which induce increasing impervious area and the climate change. Therefore, more severe urban inundation and flood damage will be occurred by localized heavy precipitation event in the future. In this study, we analyze the future frequency based precipitation under climate change based on the regional frequency analysis. The observed precipitation data from 58 stations provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) are collected and the data period is more than 30 years. Then the frequency based precipitation for the observed data by regional frequency analysis are estimated. In order to remove the bias from the simulated precipitation by RCP scenarios, the quantile mapping method and outlier test are used. The regional frequency analysis using L-moment method(Hosking and Wallis, 1997) is performed and the future frequency based precipitation for 80, 100, and 200 years of return period are estimated. As a result, future frequency based precipitation in South Korea will be increased by 25 to 27 percent. Especially the result for Jeju Island shows that the increasing rate will be higher than other areas. Severe heavy precipitation could be more and more frequently occurred in the future due to the climate change and the runoff characteristics will be also changed by urbanization, industrialization, and climate change. Therefore, we need prepare flood prevention measures for our flood safety in the future.

A Study on the Improvement of Huff's Method for Applying in Korea : II. Improvement of Huff's Method (Huff 강우시간분포방법의 개선방안 연구 : II. Huff 방법의 개선방안)

  • Jang Su-Hyung;Yoon Jae-Young;Yoon Yong-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.9 s.170
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    • pp.779-786
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we propose a new method that utilizes rainfall data in and out of a basin, which is greater than 25.4mm for point rainfall or 12.7mm for areal mean rainfall respectively. From our analysis, most frequent quartile for point and areal mean rainfall were found to be the same in general for various rainfall duration intervals. From an evaluation of design rainfall per each rainfall duration distributed in time by the MOCT(Ministry of Construction and Transportation) version of Huff's method and this study, peak rainfall intensity by this study was found to be greater than the one by MOCT, but there were no consistent increase or decrease of this difference with rainfall durations. Using the distributed design rainfall per each duration by MOCT and this study, corresponding flood inflow hydrographs were simulated and compared each other. Contrary to the case of peak rainfall intensity, difference in peak flow by both methods per each rainfall duration started to increase from about 12-hr duration. Especially, the difference in peak flow was significant when critical rainfall duration was considered, and this trend was similar for peak flows of other rainfall durations. Therefore, the method proposed in this study is thought to be the effective procedure for the construction of dimensionless cumulative rainfall curve that is representative of a basin while considering time distribution characteristics for different rainfall durations.

Reliable Assessment of Rainfall-Induced Slope Instability (강우로 인한 사면의 불안정성에 대한 신뢰성 있는 평가)

  • Kim, Yun-Ki;Choi, Jung-Chan;Lee, Seung-Rae;Seong, Joo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2009
  • Many slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration. A lot of recent researches are therefore focused on rainfall-induced slope instability and the rainfall infiltration is recognized as the important triggering factor. The rainfall infiltrates into the soil slope and makes the matric suction lost in the slope and even the positive pore water pressure develops near the surface of the slope. They decrease the resisting shear strength. In Korea, a few public institutions suggested conservative slope design guidelines that assume a fully saturated soil condition. However, this assumption is irrelevant and sometimes soil properties are misused in the slope design method to fulfill the requirement. In this study, a more relevant slope stability evaluation method is suggested to take into account the real rainfall infiltration phenomenon. Unsaturated soil properties such as shear strength, soil-water characteristic curve and permeability for Korean weathered soils were obtained by laboratory tests and also estimated by artificial neural network models. For real-time assessment of slope instability, failure warning criteria of slope based on deterministic and probabilistic analyses were introduced to complement uncertainties of field measurement data. The slope stability evaluation technique can be combined with field measurement data of important factors, such as matric suction and water content, to develop an early warning system for probably unstable slopes due to the rainfall.