Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.12.995

Analysis of the effect of climate change on IDF curves using scale-invariance technique: focus on RCP 8.5  

Choi, Jeonghyeon (Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
Lee, Okjeong (Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
Kim, Sangdan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.49, no.12, 2016 , pp. 995-1006 More about this Journal
Abstract
According to 5th IPCC Climate Change Report, there is a very high likelihood that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will increase. In reality, flood damage has increased, and it is necessary to estimate the future probabilistic design rainfall amount that climate change is reflected. In this study, the future probabilistic design precipitation amount is estimated by analyzing trends of future annual maximum daily rainfall derived by RCP 8.5 scenarios and using the scale-invariance technique. In the first step, after reviewing the time-scale characteristics of annual maximum rainfall amounts for each duration observed from 60 sites operating in Korea Meterological Administration, the feasibility of the scale-invariance technique are examined using annual daily maximum rainfall time series simulated under the present climate condition. Then future probabilistic design rainfall amounts for several durations reflecting the effects of climate change are estimated by applying future annual maximum daily rainfall time series in the IDF curve equation derived by scale-invariance properties. It is shown that the increasing trend on the probabilistic design rainfall amount has resulted on most sites, but the decreasing trend in some regions has been projected.
Keywords
Climate Change; IDF Curve; Probabilistic Design Rainfall Amount; RCP 8.5; Scale Invariance;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Krige, D. G. (1951). "A statistical approach to some mine valuations and allied problems at the Witwatersrand." Master's thesis, University of Witwatersrand, p. 272.
2 Kwon, Y., Park, J., and Kim, T. (2009). "Estimation of design rainfalls considering an increasing trend in rainfall data." Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 2B, pp. 131-139.
3 Lee, M., Shin, S., and Bae, D. (2012). "The application assessment of future design rainfall estimation method using scale properties." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 45, No. 3, pp. 253-262.   DOI
4 Lee, O., and Kim, S. (2016). "Future PMPs projection under future dew point temperature variation of RCP 8.5 climate change scenario." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 505-514.   DOI
5 Liuzzo, L., and Freni, G. (2015). "Analysis of extreme rainfall trends in sicily for the evaluation of depth-duration-frequency curves in climate change scenarios." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 20, No. 12.
6 Mailhot, A., and Duchesne, S. (2010). "Design criteria of urban drainage infrastructures under climate change." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 136, No. 2, pp. 201-208.   DOI
7 Ministry of Construction and Transport (2000). "1999 Report of research and investigation of water resources management method development. Vol 1. Probability Rainfall Map." Ministry of Construction and Transport.
8 Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (2012). "Design flood estimation tips." Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs.
9 Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Nairn, J. R. (2012). "Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells." Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, No. 20.
10 Rodriguez, R., Navarro, X., Casas, M. C., Ribalaygua, J., Russo, B., Pouget, L., and Redano, A. (2014). "Influence of climate change on IDF curves for the metropolitan area of Barcelona." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 643-654.   DOI
11 Willems, P. (2013). "Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 490, pp. 126-133.   DOI
12 IPCC (2014). "Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
13 Burlando, P. and Rosso, R. (1996). "Scaling and multiscaling models of depth-duration-frequency curves for storm precipitation." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 187, No. 1, pp. 45-64.   DOI
14 Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R. J. H., Willett, K. M., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Caesar, J., Hewitson, B., Jack, C., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Kruger, A. C., Marengo, J., Peterson, T. C., Renom, M., Oria Rojas, C., Rusticucci, M., Salinger, J., Elrayah, A. S., Sekele, S. S., Srivastava, A. K., Trewin, B., Villarroel, C., Vincent, L. A., Zhai, P., Zhang, X., and Kitching, S. (2013). "Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, No. 5, pp. 2098-2118.   DOI
15 Gregersen, I. B., Sorup, H. J. D., Madsen, H., Rosbjerg, D., Mikkelsen, P. S., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. (2013). "Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales." Climatic Change, Vol. 118, No. 3, pp. 783-797.   DOI
16 Groisman, P. Y., Knight, R. W., Easterling, D. R., Karl, T. R., Hegerl, G. C., and Razuvaev, V. N. (2005). "Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record." Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, No. 9, pp. 1326-1350.   DOI
17 Hawkins, E., Osborne, T. M., Ho, C. K., and Challinor, A. J. (2012). "Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 170, pp. 19-31.
18 Jung, Y., Kim, S., Kim, T., and Heo, J. (2008). "Rainfall quantile estimation using scaling property in Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 9, pp. 873-884.   DOI
19 Kim, E., Choi, H. I., Park, M. J., Cho, S. J., and Kim, S. (2011). "The effect of climate change on Korean drought occurrences using a stochastic soil water balance model." Scientific Research and Essays, Vol. 6, No. 13, pp. 2771-2783.