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http://dx.doi.org/10.17663/JWR.2015.17.1.080

Regional Frequency Analysis for Future Precipitation from RCP Scenarios  

Kim, Duck Hwan (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
Hong, Seung Jin (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
Choi, Chang Hyun (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
Han, Dae Gun (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
Lee, So Jong (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
Kim, Hung Soo (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
Publication Information
Journal of Wetlands Research / v.17, no.1, 2015 , pp. 80-90 More about this Journal
Abstract
Variability of precipitation pattern and intensity are increasing due to the urbanization and industrialization which induce increasing impervious area and the climate change. Therefore, more severe urban inundation and flood damage will be occurred by localized heavy precipitation event in the future. In this study, we analyze the future frequency based precipitation under climate change based on the regional frequency analysis. The observed precipitation data from 58 stations provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) are collected and the data period is more than 30 years. Then the frequency based precipitation for the observed data by regional frequency analysis are estimated. In order to remove the bias from the simulated precipitation by RCP scenarios, the quantile mapping method and outlier test are used. The regional frequency analysis using L-moment method(Hosking and Wallis, 1997) is performed and the future frequency based precipitation for 80, 100, and 200 years of return period are estimated. As a result, future frequency based precipitation in South Korea will be increased by 25 to 27 percent. Especially the result for Jeju Island shows that the increasing rate will be higher than other areas. Severe heavy precipitation could be more and more frequently occurred in the future due to the climate change and the runoff characteristics will be also changed by urbanization, industrialization, and climate change. Therefore, we need prepare flood prevention measures for our flood safety in the future.
Keywords
Climate Change; RCP Scenarios; regional frequency analysis; frequency based precipitation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
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