• Title/Summary/Keyword: 화재발생확률

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Analysis of Fire Occurrence Characteristics According to Ignition Heat Sources (발화열원에 따른 화재발생 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Su;Kim, Tae-Hyeung;Lee, Jae-Ou
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.280-289
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: In this study, the characteristics of fire occurrence according to ignition heat sources such as operating equipment, cigarette/lighter fire, and flame/fire were analyzed. Method: One-way ANOVA and cross-analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of fire occurrence by verifying the difference between the ignition environment, fire damage status and scale, and cause of ignition according to the ignition heat source. Result: The fire occurrence characteristics were analyzed through As a result of the analysis, it was found that fires caused by operating devices occurred more frequently on weekdays than other ignition heat sources, and the number of victims and the number of victims were the highest, so mobilization of firefighting power and property damage were the greatest. The initial ignition was generated by electric and electronic devices, and the combustion was expanded by the synthetic resin. For fires caused by cigarette and lighter fires, the most fires occurred on Saturdays and Sundays, and the mobilization of the police force was more characteristic than the mobilization of the firefighting force. In particular, it was found that the initial ignition and combustion expansion were caused by paper, wood, and hay. Fires caused by sparks and sparks occurred most frequently on Saturdays and Sundays, and initial ignition and combustion expansion were found to be caused by paper, wood, and hay. In particular, it showed the characteristic that it occurred in the place farthest from the fire station. The common characteristic of all ignition heat sources was that the fire occurred most frequently in the afternoon time, and the fire type was predominantly the building structure fire, and only the ignition point was burned the most. Conclusion: In order to prevent fire and minimize damage, it is necessary to analyze the tendency of fire occurrence and to prepare appropriate preparations according to the fire occurrence factors. In order to analyze the characteristics of fire occurrence using public data in the future, it is necessary to standardize disaster data and to open and activate data.

A Study on the Risk Management Information System of the Underground Space - focused on Fire Growth Risk Assessment System- (지하공간의 위험관리정보시스템에 관한 연구 -화재확산평가시스템 중심으로-)

  • 박종근;노삼규
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2002
  • A large number of accidents at an underground place have been happening, including the gas explosion under construction of subway; the fires of underground utility and underground shopping malls, and other explosion, at home and abroad recently. These accidents make the function of a city ineffective due to the paralyses of electricity and communications net as well as the loss of property and cause people to feel unsecured with accompaniment of a heavy of toll of lives. This research will show evaluation methods of a numerical value of expected average loss space of combustion with the use of probability in order to present potential risk of combustion growth that underground space might cause, and how designer decides a system that enables us to compare and evaluate relatively the effectiveness of measures for preventing burning by calculating the expansion route and the damage size of burning in case of fire.

Constructing a Database Structure for the Domestic LP Gas and Natural Gas Accidents and its Analysis (국내 LP 및 천연가스사고 Database 구축 및 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Park, Sun-Young;Kim, Hyo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2008
  • We have garnered 3,593 data of gas [Natural Gas (NG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)] accidents reported for 16 years from 1991, and then analyzed the accidents according to their types and causes based on the classified database. According to the results the gas leak has been the most common accident followed by the explosion and then fire accidents. The most frequent accident-occurring locations for fire, explosion and leak are recognized around the valve, hose and pipeline, respectively. In addition, we have applied the Poisson analysis to predict the most-likely probabilities of fire, explosion and release in the upcoming 5 years. From this research we have assured the successive database updating will highly improve the anticipating-probability accuracy and thus it will play a key role as a significant safety-securing guideline against the gas disasters.

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Prediction for Possibility of the Electric Fire by Tracking Breakdown (트래킹에 의한 전기화재 가능성 예측)

  • Jee, Seung-Wook
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2015
  • Tracking, which is one of main reasons of the electric fire, progresses gradually, and therefore, the possibility of fire caused by tracking can be predicted by analyzing the stage of its progress. This paper is conducted in order to predict possibility of the electric fire caused by the tracking in the simulated electric equipment with load. Non-inductive resistance is used as the load. The tracking is happened in a Polyvinyl-chloride-sheathed flat cord, which is a part of the simulated electric equipment by means of dropping of electrolyte droplet. In order to predict the possibility of electric fire caused by tracking, we detect the whole current waveforms of the simulated electric equipment. The time-energy analysis and probability distribution are used for analysis of the tracking progress from the whole current waveforms. In accordance with the results is used for input date of Neural networks, the neural networks can be predict possibility of the electric fire in the electric equipment by 4 stages.

Fire-Flame Detection using Fuzzy Finite Automata (퍼지 유한상태 오토마타를 이용한 화재 불꽃 감지)

  • Ham, Sun-Jae;Ko, Byoung-Chul
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.712-721
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes a new fire-flame detection method using probabilistic membership function of visual features and Fuzzy Finite Automata (FFA). First, moving regions are detected by analyzing the background subtraction and candidate flame regions then identified by applying flame color models. Since flame regions generally have continuous and an irregular pattern continuously, membership functions of variance of intensity, wavelet energy and motion orientation are generated and applied to FFA. Since FFA combines the capabilities of automata with fuzzy logic, it not only provides a systemic approach to handle uncertainty in computational systems, but also can handle continuous spaces. The proposed algorithm is successfully applied to various fire videos and shows a better detection performance when compared with other methods.

Analyzing The Economic Impact of The Fire Risk Reduction at Regional Level in Goyang City (지역단위 화재 위험도 저감의 고양시 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Son, Minsu;Cho, Dongin;Park, Chang Keun;Ko, Hyun A;Jung, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.685-693
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    • 2021
  • This study examined the fire risk of the region in Goyang City using the spatial information data of buildings. The economic damage by industry was assessed according to the probability of fire risk. The study area was confined to Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, and the same fire risk reduction rate was applied to each region for the convenience of analysis. The possibility of fire was derived based on the buildings' density and usage in the area by National GIS building-integrated information standard data. The calculation of economic damage by industry in Goyang City due to the fire risk was calculated by combining the Goyang-si industry-related model produced by matching with 30 industrial categories in Input-Output Statistics of Korea Bank and 20 industrial categories in the Goyang-si business survey and the possibility of fire. The basic scenario of production impossibility during six months and business loss due to fire was established and analyzed based on the supply model. The analysis showed that Ilsan-dong-gu, Ilsan-seo-gu, and Deokyang-gu suffered the most economic damage. The "electricity, gas, steam, and water business" showed the greatest loss by industry.

Study on Fire.Explosion Accidents Prediction Model Development of LPG Vaporizer (LPG 기화기의 화재.폭발사고 예측모델개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2010
  • We have garnered 3,593 data of gas accidents reported for 12 years from 1995, and then analyzed the LPG vaporizer accidents according to their types and causes based on the classified database. According to the results the gas rupture has been the most common accident followed by the release, explosion and then fire accidents, the most frequent accident-occurring sub-cause is LPG check floater faults. In addition, we have applied the Poisson Probability Functions to predict the most-likely probabilities of fire, explosion, release and rupture with the LPG vaporizer in the upcoming 5 years. In compliance with Poisson Probability Functions results, in the item which occurs below 3 "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire", in the item which occurs below 5 "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults-Check Floater" and the item which occurs below 10 appeared with "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults". From this research we have assured the successive database updating will highly improve the anticipating probability accuracy and thus it will play a key role as a significant safety- securing guideline against the gas disasters.

Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

Electrostatic Prediction Embedded System based on PXA255 (PXA255 기반 정전기 예측 임베디드 시스템 개발)

  • Byeon, Chi-Nam;Kim, Kang-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.406-409
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    • 2007
  • This paper proposes an algorithm that predicts current electrostatic charge in a factory. The algorithm based on LSM(Least Square Method) dynamically takes the number of sample while calculating the value of electrostatic charge. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm gains 73.18161 standard deviation with 95% trust probability and is better than conventional algorithm. We design the electrostatic prediction embedded system based on pxa255 with the proposes algorithm.

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An Improvement of Fire Safety Code for Rack-Type Warehouse in Korea (국내 랙크식 창고의 방화관련 규정 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Woon-Hyung;Lee, Young-Jae
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2014
  • Recently Amore pacific rack-type warehouse fire broke out and argue an urgent improvement of fire protection design code including automatic sprinkler and detection design. Various type of commodities have their unique fire characteristics from fire spread rate and heat lease rate and fire hazard depends on storage height, rack arrangement, aisle width, fire load etc. With increasing ceiling height for more storage space prevent effective water spray of sprinkler head, also delays detection time causes failure of early suppression. To achieve fire protection code performance of this occupancy, Major code articles relating to a classification of commodity, sprinkler system installation, detection and fire fighting are reviewed and suggested based on fire case analysis, code review between country and field survey.