• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• 제6권2호
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2013

This study is concerned with the estimation of fluctuate wind velocity statistic properties in the major cities reflecting the recent meteorological with largest data samples (yearly 2003-2012). The basic wind speeds were standardized homogeneously to the surface roughness category C, and to 10m above the ground surface. The estimation of the extreme of non-Gaussian load effects for design applications has often been treated tacitly by invoking a conventional wind design (gust load peak factor) on the basis of Gaussian processes. This assumption breaks down when the loading processes exhibits non-Gaussianity, in which a conventional wind design yields relatively non conservative estimates because of failure to include long tail regions inherent to non-Gaussian processes. This study seeks to ascertain the probability distribution function from recently wind data with effected typhoon & maximum instantaneous wind speed.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
• /
• 제35권2호
• /
• pp.77-86
• /
• 2009

The encounter probability graph is measured by the chance(in percent) that a vehicle, blindly moving through a minefield, will detonate a mine. The encounter probability graph versus minefield density is presented in ROK and US Army field manual but this graph is baseless because these data had not been presented as those of live mobility or wargame. In this paper, we verified this graph building procedure model as using computer program. The result values of program are almost like those of graph. Therefore this model for our to suggest have validation, verification that a modeling demand and we convince that this model will be useful for calculating encounter probability of multiple vehicles.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• 제30권1호
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2017

Many stochastic processes satisfy the Markov property exactly or at least approximately. An interested property in the Markov process is the first passage time. Since the sequential analysis by Wald, the approximation of the first passage time has been studied extensively. The Statistical computing technique due to the development of high-speed computers made it possible to calculate the values of the properties close to the true ones. This article introduces an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart as an example of the Markov process, and studied how to calculate the average run length with problematic issues that should be cautioned for correct calculation. The results derived for approximation of the first passage time in this research can be applied to any of the Markov processes. Especially the approximation of the continuous time Markov process to the discrete time Markov chain is useful for the studies of the properties of the stochastic process and makes computational approaches easy.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 한국항해항만학회 2012년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.516-518
• /
• 2012

해상에서 선박의 충돌확률을 평가하는 것은 해당해역의 잠재적인 해상교통 위험성을 평가하는데 있어 중요하다. 서남해권 해상교통에 중요한 요충지인 완도해역은 동서방향으로는 횡간수도 통과선박들이 항해를 하며, 남북방향으로는 완도항 입출항 선박과 다도해 섬들을 입출항하는 여객선들이 통항을 이루고 있다. IALA 정량적인 해상안전 평가방법인 IWRAP은 통항량, 선속, 길이, 선박의 통항분포로부터 해상에서 통항의 위험도를 평가하므로 인적, 지리적, 환경적 등 주관적인 요소들이 많은 정성적인 평가방법에 비해 적용이 간단하다. 본 연구에서는 VTS 섹터 관제의 관점에서 항로구간별 해상교통의 특징과 개선책을 세우기 위해 IWRAP을 활용하여 완도 해역의 충돌확률을 산출하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.217-217
• /
• 2016

강우는 시 공간적 변동성이 크고 지형특성으로 인한 지역 편차가 큰 특성을 가지고 있다. 따라서 강우 발생을 분석하는 경우, 강우의 시 공간적 변동성과 지역특성을 고려해야한다. 본 연구에서는 지역특성을 고려한 강우 앙상블을 생성하였다. 강우의 지역특성을 고려하기 위해 2010~2015년 동안 발생한 강우사상 중 서울지역을 통과하는 대류성 강우사상 30개를 선정하였다. 지역특성 고려하기 위한 매개변수로 강우강도와 풍향을 선정하고, 매개변수의 가중인자를 결정하였다. 또한 매개변수의 정량화를 위해 강우강도의 경우 대수정규분포, 풍향의 경우 Von mises분포를 매개변수의 확률분포로 선정하고, 선정된 두 확률분포에 Copula함수를 적용하여 결합확률분포를 추정하였다. 아울러 추정된 결합확률분포에 Monte-Carlo Simulation기법을 적용하여 매개변수에 대한 난수를 발생시키고, 이를 이용하여 지역특성을 고려한 강우 앙상블을 생성하였다.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.25-34
• /
• 2010

A method is presented for evaluating the seismic failure probability of bridge structures which show a nonlinear hysteretic dynamic behavior. Bridge structures are modeled as a bilinear dynamic system with a single degree of freedom. We regarded that the failure of bridges will occur when the displacement response of a deck level firstly crosses the predefined limit state during a duration of strong motion. For the estimation of the first-crossing probability of a nonlinear structural system excited by earthquake motion, we computed the average frequency of crossings of the limit state. We presented the non-Gaussian closure method for the approximation of the joint probability density function of response and its derivative, which is required for the estimation of the average frequency of crossings. The failure probabilities are estimated according to the various artificial earthquake acceleration sets representing specific seismic characteristics. For the verification of the accuracy and efficiency of presented method, we compared the estimated failure probabilities with the results evaluated from previous methods and the exact values estimated with the crude Monte-Carlo simulation method.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.11-17
• /
• 1999

This paper proposes an observation probability smoothing technique for the robustness of a discrete hidden Markov(DHMM) model based speech recognizer. Also, an appropriate noise robust processing in car environment is suggested from experimental results. The noisy speech is often mislabeled during the vector quantization process. To reduce the effects of such mislabelings, the proposed technique increases the observation probability of similar codewords. For the noise robust processing in car environment, the liftering on the distance measure of feature vectors, the high pass filtering, and the spectral subtraction methods are examined. Recognition experiments on the 14-isolated words consists of the Korean digits and command words were performed. The database was recorded in a stopping car and a running car environments. The recognition rates of the baseline recognizer were 97.4% in a stopping situation and 59.1% in a running situation. Using the proposed observation probability smoothing technique, the liftering, the high pass filtering, and the spectral subtraction the recognition rates were enhanced to 98.3% in a stopping situation and to 88.6% in a running situation.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
• /
• 제13권8호
• /
• pp.797-803
• /
• 2002

In this paper we derive the probability density function of the phase error of the received signal over Rician fading channel and verify its propriety as the probability density function using the zeroth moment. In general, for the error probability over fading channel we compute the error probability in the first place when it is only AWGN, and then we get the final result by averaging the first result and the probability density function of the corresponding fading channel. In this paper, however, we compute the error probability by double integration after the probability density function over fading channel is computed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Institutes of Information Security and Cryptology Conference
• /
• 한국정보보호학회 2002년도 종합학술발표회논문집
• /
• pp.602-608
• /
• 2002

본 논문에서는 두 참여자간의 암호화 통신상에 있이 법집행기관이 정해진 확률 P에 따라 메시지를 복호화 하는 것이 가능하도록 해주는 키위탁 기법을 고려한다. 이것은 확률 P에 의해 사람들 개개인의 프라이버시와 법집행기간에 의한 개인침해란 두 주제 사이를 적절히 조절하도록 해준다. 제안된 방법은 ElGamal의 공개키 암호, 공개적으로 검증가능한 ElGamal 공개키 암호에 있어서 공통 지수부에 대한 지식 증명, 그리고 분배된 키위탁 기관들에서의 비밀공유기법 등에 바탕을 둔다. 또한 두 참여자간의 세션키를 복호화 하기 위해 필요한 각 키위탁 기관의 파라메터들은 영지식 대화형 증명 프로토콜을 통과하여야만 사용이 가능하도록 구성된다. 이와 같은 기법들을 통해 두 참여자간의 암호화된 통신에 접근 가능한 법집행기관과 암호화된 통신에 사용된 세션키를 보호하기 위한 분배된 키위탁기관들이 참여된 키위탁 기법을 고려한다.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
• /
• 제10권6호
• /
• pp.825-834
• /
• 1999

In this paper we derive the probability density function of the phase error and that of the envelope of the received signal over Nakagami fading channel. Using the new probability density functions we analyze the performance of coherent BPSK, noncoherent FSK, DPSK and noncoherent ASK on Nakagami fading by means of new methods.