• 제목/요약/키워드: 통계적 신뢰도 평가

검색결과 239건 처리시간 0.138초

Dynamic Nonlinear Prediction Model of Univariate Hydrologic Time Series Using the Support Vector Machine and State-Space Model (Support Vector Machine과 상태공간모형을 이용한 단변량 수문 시계열의 동역학적 비선형 예측모형)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제26권3B호
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2006
  • The reconstruction of low dimension nonlinear behavior from the hydrologic time series has been an active area of research in the last decade. In this study, we present the applications of a powerful state space reconstruction methodology using the method of Support Vector Machines (SVM) to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume. SVMs are machine learning systems that use a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space. SVMs are optimized by minimizing a bound on a generalized error (risk) measure, rather than just the mean square error over a training set. The utility of this SVM regression approach is demonstrated through applications to the short term forecasts of the biweekly GSL volume. The SVM based reconstruction is used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from the period of two weeks to several months. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics is tested using split sample sensitivity analyses, with a particular interest in forecasting extreme states. Unlike previously reported methodologies, SVMs are able to extract the dynamics using only a few past observed data points (Support Vectors, SV) out of the training examples. Considering statistical measures, the prediction model based on SVM demonstrated encouraging and promising results in a short-term prediction. Thus, the SVM method presented in this study suggests a competitive methodology for the forecast of hydrologic time series.

Radiographic Evaluation of Stiffness of Articular Eminence in the Temporomandibular Joint(TMJ) of Korean Using Dental cone-beam CT (한국인의 측두하악관절에서 Dental cone-beam CT를 이용한 관절융기의 경사도에 대한 방사선학적 평가)

  • Oh, Sang-Chun;Han, Ji-Seok
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2013
  • When the mandible performs opening movement, the condyle-disk complex conducts sliding movement along the articular eminence. Thus, anatomic configuration of articular eminence is very important to normal movement of TMJ. The purpose of this study was to measure the posterior slope of the articular eminence and evaluate the effect of a pathologic bone change in the condylar head on the stiffness of articular eminence, and compare the differences of the articular eminence slope by gender and age using dental cone-beam CT. As using i-CAT Cone-Beam Computed Tomography, the CT images of 204 TMJs of 102 patients(43 men and 59 women, mean age: 37.7 years) who were diagnosed at Wonkwang University Sanbon Dental Hospital were evaluated. All images were converted into a TMJ analysis mode to observe the continuous sagittal section images and coronal section images of the joints. To observe and assess bone changes in the condyle, three dentists measured the stiffness of the articular eminence on the same images, and when two of the three dentists agreed on their reading, these results were adopted and recorded. The articular eminence slope, considering the condylar anatomic configuration, was measured in three regions, namely, lateral part, central part, and medial part of the condyle. In the cases of a normal condyle(NCBC) and a condyle(CBC) with bone change, the articular eminence slopes were $57.0^{\circ}$(NCBC) and $51.8^{\circ}$(CBC) at the medial part, $57.9^{\circ}$(NCBC) and $52.4^{\circ}$(CBC) at the central part, and $55.1^{\circ}$(NCBC) and $49.5^{\circ}$(CBC) at the lateral part of the condyle. And the articular eminence slope of the condyle with bone change demonstrated less steepness than that of normal condyle (p<0.05). The articular eminence slope showed mediolaterally that it was the steepest at the central, followed by at the medial, and at the lateral (p<0.05). There were no significant differences by the gender and the age (p.0.05).

Comparison of C-reactive Protein between Capillary and Venous Blood in Children (소아에 있어서 C-반응성 단백의 모세혈 및 정맥혈 검사의 비교평가)

  • Jin, Ji Hoon;Jung, Soo Ho;Hong, Young Jin;Son, Byong Kwan;Kim, Soon Ki
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.101-107
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : In evaluation of patients, laboratory results are crucial in determination of a treatment plan. Obtaining venous blood from infants and children is a difficult procedure. Substitution of a capillary blood sample for a venous blood sample has been suggested. However, there are few studies showing mutual correlation between C-reactive protein (CRP) results in capillary and venous blood. This study was designed to determine whether the result of the capillary sample is the same as the result of the venous blood sample. Methods : After informed consent, a pair of venous and fingertip capillary blood samples were simultaneously collected from 100 children. The LC-178CRPTM was used for analysis of capillary blood and the Hitachi 7180 automatic hematology analyzer was used for analysis of venous blood. We compared CRP of both venous and capillary blood samples. Results were analyzed by crosstabulation analysis, simple regression analysis and the Bland Altman Plot method. Results : A close correlation (90.63%) was observed between capillary and venous blood analyzed by crosstabulation analysis. CRP results were similar between the two groups and showed a high coefficient correlation ($\beta$=1.3434, $R^2$=0.9888, P<0.0001) when analyzed by a simple regression model. The average value in venous blood was also higher compared to capillary blood. According to Bland Altman Plot analysis, lab results were measured at a 95% confidence interval. Conclusion : CRP results from capillary blood showed close correlation with venous blood sampling. At present, venous blood sampling is the preferred method. However, due to difficulty in venous blood sampling, capillary sampling could be considered as an alternative technique for use with children.

EFFECT OF THE BLEACHING LIGHT ON WHITENING EFFICACY (미백보조광 조사가 치아미백의 효과에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Jong-Hyun;Shin, Hye-Jin;Park, Deok-Young;Park, Se-Hee;Kim, Jin-Woo;Cho, Kyung-Mo
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2009
  • The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of light energy on the tooth whitening effect of bleaching agent in vitro..Extracted human mandibular molars were sectioned to 2 fragments(mesial. distal) and lingual portions of crown were used in this study. All specimens were stained using a red wine for 24 hours and immersed in artificial saliva. Specimens divided into four groups, group 1 and 2 light-activated by LumaCool (LED, LumaLite, Inc., Spring Valley, USA), group 3 and 4 light-activated by FlipoWhite2 (Plasma acr lamp, Lokki. Australia). Group 1 and 3 bleached with Luma White (LumaLite, Inc., Spring Valley, USA), group 2 and 4 bleached with Polaoffice(SDI, Victoria, Australia). Bleaching treatment performed during 10 minutes every 24 hours and repeated 6 times. During bleaching treatment, distal fragments was light-activated (L) but mesial fragments was not(NL). Shade assessment employed before and after bleaching treatment using spectrophotometer. The results of the change in shade was compared and analysed between NL and L by using paired-sample T test with 95 % level of confidence. There were no significant differences between NL and L with a few exceptions. In group 2, $a^*$ value more change in L, in group 3, $b^*$ value more change in L, in group 4, $a^*$ value less change in L. After bleaching, $L^*$ value and ${\Delta}E$ increased in all groups and the value of $a^*$ and $b^*$ decreased in all groups. Within the limitation of this test conditions, the results of this study indicate that the light energy has no obvious improving impact on the tooth whitening effect of a bleaching agent.

The Investigation of Current Information Regarding Renal Diseases in Mass Media (대중매체를 통한 신장 관련 정보 제공 실태에 대한 고찰)

  • Lim, Dong-Hee;Jung, Ji-In;Yim, Hyung-Eun;Eun, Baik-Lin;Yoo, Kee-Hwan;Hong, Young-Sook;Lee, Joo-Won
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: We often have patients who acquired incorrect medical information from the mass media. The purpose of this study was to evaluate credibility of articles in newspapers and medical counseling on websites about renal diseases. Methods: Kidney information was searched in 6 newspapers for the past 10 years, and 4 portal websites and 17 internet health counseling sites for the past 5 years. We classified them according to information providers and evaluated credibility by giving points 3, 2, 1 to correct, mostly correct but ambiguous, and incorrect contents, respectively. We compared the credibility of the groups with each other. Results: Sixty four articles from newspapers, and 789 and 506 medical counselings from portal websites and internet health counseling sites were selected, respectively. The kidney information providers in newspapers were medical journalists(doctors)(31.2%), kidney specialists(doctors)(23.4%) and so on. The consultants in the portal sites were doctors(49.1%)and anonymous reporters (49.9%). In internet health counseling sites, 91% of the consultants were doctors. All articles in the newspapers were credible. Doctors' answers were more credible than nonphysicians'(P=0.005) and anonymous contributors(P<0.001) in portal sites. In health counseling sites, doctors answered more reliably than nonphysicians. Conclusion: The kidney information in newspapers was credible. It is important for questioners to confirm the type of consultants in websites. We suggest that doctors, especially kidney specialists need to increase their roles in offering information to mass media.

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A Comparison between Simulation Results of DSSAT CROPGRO-SOYBEAN at US Cornbelt using Different Gridded Weather Forecast Data (격자기상예보자료 종류에 따른 미국 콘벨트 지역 DSSAT CROPGRO-SOYBEAN 모형 구동 결과 비교)

  • Yoo, Byoung Hyun;Kim, Kwang Soo;Hur, Jina;Song, Chan-Yeong;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.164-178
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    • 2022
  • Uncertainties in weather forecasts would affect the reliability of yield prediction using crop models. The objective of this study was to compare uncertainty in crop yield prediction caused by the use of the weather forecast data. Daily weather data were produced at 10 km spatial resolution using W eather Research and Forecasting (W RF) model. The nearest neighbor method was used to downscale these data at the resolution of 5 km (W RF5K). Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) was also applied to the WRF data to produce the weather data at the same resolution. W RF5K and PRISM data were used as inputs to the CROPGRO-SOYBEAN model to predict crop yield. The uncertainties of the gridded data were analyzed using cumulative growing degree days (CGDD) and cumulative solar radiation (CSRAD) during the soybean growing seasons for the crop of interest. The degree of agreement (DOA) statistics including structural similarity index were determined for the crop model outputs. Our results indicated that the DOA statistics for CGDD were correlated with that for the maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM data. Yield forecasts had small values of the DOA statistics when large spatial disagreement occured between maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM. These results suggest that the spatial uncertainties in temperature data would affect the reliability of the phenology and, as a result, yield predictions at a greater degree than those in solar radiation data. This merits further studies to assess the uncertainties of crop yield forecasts using a wide range of crop calendars.

Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor Type 1 Gene Polymorphism in Patients with Minimal Change Nephrotic Syndrome (소아 신증후군 환자에서 Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor Type 1 유전자 다형성)

  • Kim Young-Min;Hong Hyun-Kee;Kim Sung-Do;Cho Byoung-Soo
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : Hypercoagulability is present in patients with nephrotic syndrome. Plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1(PAI-1) is a major inhibitor of plasminogen activators. PAI-1 inactivates both tissue plasminogen activator(tPA) and urokinase plasminogen activator(uPA) by rapid formation of inactive 1:1 stoichiometric complexes. Recently some studies showed that the enhanced PAI-1 expression may be involved in the intraglomerular fibrinogen/fibrinrelated antigen deposition seen in nephrotic syndrome. Methods : PAI-1 gene promoter -844(G/A) polymorphism was evaluated in 146 children with minimal change nephrotic syndrome(MCNS) and 230 control subjects. The patients with MCNS were subdivided into 85 infrequent-relapser(IR) group and 61 frequent relapser(FR) group. PCR of PAI-1 gene promoter region including -844(G/A) and RFLP using the restriction enzyme Xhol were performed for each DNA samples extracted from the groups. Results : The distribution of PAI-1 genotype in the control group was G/G 81(32.5%), A/A 42(16.9%), and G/A 126(50.6%). The distribution of PAI-1 genotypes in the IR group of MCNS was G/G 29(34.1%), A/A 15(17.7%), and G/A 41(48.2%). The distribution of PAI-1 genotype in the FR group of MCNS was G/G 17(27.9%), A/A 18(29.5%), and G/A 26(42.6%). There was a significantly increased frequency of A/A genotype(P=0.0251) in the FR group of MCNS. Conclusion : Our results indicate that the PAI-1 gene promoter A/A genotype may be associated with the FR in MCNS.

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Statics corrections for shallow seismic refraction data (천부 굴절법 탄성파 탐사 자료의 정보정)

  • Palmer Derecke;Nikrouz Ramin;Spyrou Andreur
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2005
  • The determination of seismic velocities in refractors for near-surface seismic refraction investigations is an ill-posed problem. Small variations in the computed time parameters can result in quite large lateral variations in the derived velocities, which are often artefacts of the inversion algorithms. Such artefacts are usually not recognized or corrected with forward modelling. Therefore, if detailed refractor models are sought with model based inversion, then detailed starting models are required. The usual source of artefacts in seismic velocities is irregular refractors. Under most circumstances, the variable migration of the generalized reciprocal method (GRM) is able to accommodate irregular interfaces and generate detailed starting models of the refractor. However, where the very-near-surface environment of the Earth is also irregular, the efficacy of the GRM is reduced, and weathering corrections can be necessary. Standard methods for correcting for surface irregularities are usually not practical where the very-near-surface irregularities are of limited lateral extent. In such circumstances, the GRM smoothing statics method (SSM) is a simple and robust approach, which can facilitate more-accurate estimates of refractor velocities. The GRM SSM generates a smoothing 'statics' correction by subtracting an average of the time-depths computed with a range of XY values from the time-depths computed with a zero XY value (where the XY value is the separation between the receivers used to compute the time-depth). The time-depths to the deeper target refractors do not vary greatly with varying XY values, and therefore an average is much the same as the optimum value. However, the time-depths for the very-near-surface irregularities migrate laterally with increasing XY values and they are substantially reduced with the averaging process. As a result, the time-depth profile averaged over a range of XY values is effectively corrected for the near-surface irregularities. In addition, the time-depths computed with a Bero XY value are the sum of both the near-surface effects and the time-depths to the target refractor. Therefore, their subtraction generates an approximate 'statics' correction, which in turn, is subtracted from the traveltimes The GRM SSM is essentially a smoothing procedure, rather than a deterministic weathering correction approach, and it is most effective with near-surface irregularities of quite limited lateral extent. Model and case studies demonstrate that the GRM SSM substantially improves the reliability in determining detailed seismic velocities in irregular refractors.

The Research on Recommender for New Customers Using Collaborative Filtering and Social Network Analysis (협력필터링과 사회연결망을 이용한 신규고객 추천방법에 대한 연구)

  • Shin, Chang-Hoon;Lee, Ji-Won;Yang, Han-Na;Choi, Il Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.19-42
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    • 2012
  • Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.