• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.31-64
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• 2024

The recent trend of declining consciousness regarding the necessity of unification among South Korean citizens is evident. Does a cohort effect exist in this downward trend in the perception of the necessity of unification? The purpose of this study is to analyze whether birth cohorts statistically significantly influence the consciousness of the necessity of unification. To this end, the hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) model was employed as the analytical model, and data from the Unification Consciousness Survey conducted by Seoul National University's Institute for Peace and Unification Studies from 2007 to 2021 was used. The analysis results showed evidence that the progress of economic inequality at the birth cohort level affected the decline in the perception of the necessity of unification. The 1980s birth cohort, which faced socioeconomic difficulties during their social advancement due to income and wealth polarization, is observed to have a distinctly negative perception of unification requiring massive financial resources, compared to the 1960s and 1970s birth cohorts.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.166-181
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• 2020

This paper attempts to compare and analyze the intensity, trend, and regional gap of income inequality, capitalizing upon the Age-Period-Cohort model which considers age, time and cohort effects, with the 1998-2018 Korea Labor Panel (KLIPS) survey data for respondents living in the Capital and Non-Capital Regions. The main analysis results are as follows. First, in the case of both cohort and age effects, those in their 50~60s, including the so-called baby boomers and '386 generation' living in the Capital Region, have relatively lower income inequality effect compared to that of other age groups and cohorts in the Non-Capital Region. Second, the micro-individual characteristics cannot be ignored to account for a regional gap in income inequality, but rather the effects of structural and institutional omitted variables and the social discrimination effects of individual characteristics variables are more significant in explaining it. Overall, intra-and inter-cohort income inequalities appear to overlap.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.212-232
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• 2011

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.347-373
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• 2021

Over the past 50 years, explorative research on the nation's mortality decline patterns has showed a decrease in age-specific mortality rates in all age groups, but there were different improvement patterns in specific mortality rates depending on ages and periods. Greater distinct improvement was observed in mortality rates among women than men, and there was a noticeable improvement in mortality rates in certain groups especially in the more recent decades, revealing a structural change in the overall trends regarding death periods. In this paper, we compare various stochastic mortality models considering cohort effects for mortality projection using Korean female mortality data and further explore the uncertainty related to projection. It also created age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy for women until 2067 based on the results of the analysis, and compared them with future age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy provided by the national statistical office (KOISIS). The best optimal model could vary depending on data usage periods. however, considering the overall fit and predictability, the PLAT model would be regarded to have appropriate predictability in terms of the mortality rates of women in South Korea.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.30 no.2 s.57
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• pp.437-461
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• 1997

Because of a significant improvement in the economic situation and development of scientific techniques in Korea during the last 30 years, the life expectancy of the Korean people has lengthened considerably and as a result, the number of the elderly has markedly increased. Such an increase of the number of aged population brought about many social, economic, and medical problems which were never seriously considered before. This study was conducted to assess the trend of medical care utilization and medical expenditure of the elderly. The data of each patient in the study were taken from computer database maintained for administrative purpose by the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The study population was 132,670 who were 60 years old or more and registered in Korean Medical Insurance Corporation from 1989 to 1993. The study subjects were predominantly female(56.3%) and 10,000-20,000 Won premium group(50.6%). The following are summaries of findings : The total increase of the number of inpatient cases was 40.5% from 1989 through 1993. The average annual increase was 3.7% in inpatient medical expenditures per case, 4.4% in inpatient medical expenditures per day and 0.08% in length of stay per case from 1989 through 1993. Cataract was the most prevalent disease of 10 leading frequent diseases in all ages from 1989 through 1993. The case mix in 1993 compared to 1989 revealed that cataract and ischemic cerebral disease were increased whereas essential hypertension and pulmonary tuberculosis were decreased . The average annual increase of medical expenditures was 3.8% in general hospitals, 6.3% in hospitals and 2.4% in clinics. From 1989 through 1993, medical expenditures used by high-cost patients accounted for about 14% to 20% of all expenditures for inpatient care, while they represented less than 2.5% of the elderly population. Time series analysis revealed that total medical expenditures and doctor's fee for inpatient will be progressively increased whereas drug expenditures for inpatient will be decreased. And there will be no change in length of stay. Based on the above results, the factors increasing medical cost and utilization should be identified and the method of cost containment for the elderly health care should be developed systematically.

• Korean Journal of Social Issues
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.83-125
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• 2017

이 연구는 유신체제 이후 대외비 문서로 분류되어 학자들 사이에서도 잘 알려지지 않았던 『경찰통계연보』의 자살 통계를 통해 1953년부터 2015년까지의 자살자수와 자살률의 시계열적 변화, 자살원인과 자살수단의 장기적인 변화의 추세를 분석하였다. 자살률의 장기시계열적인 변화를 살펴봄으로써 이 논문은 통계청 자살통계로만 파악했을 때 알려지지 않았던 한국사회 1960~70년대 개발독재시기의 자살률 추이를 분석하였고 이 시기 자살률이 매우 높았음을 논의하였다. 그리고 통계청 자살 통계와 경찰청 자살 통계의 비교 검토를 통해 1999년~2007년까지의 통계청 자살 통계가 수정 보완된 점을 지적하였다. 2000년대 초반 통계청 자살 통계의 급증과 관련한 기존 연구의 분석을 검토하면서 통계 작성의 행정적 변화가 자살 통계에 미친 영향에 대해 논의하였다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.99-127
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• 2011

This study examines whether educational differentials in health are greater in more recent cohorts in Korea. This study utilizes latent growth-curve modeling to examine intercohort trends in health for three educational subgroups, using panel data (2003-2007) based on a national probability sample of 9,639 adults. Among young and middle adults with less than a high school diploma, the 4-year newer cohort demonstrated better health at the same age, implying a favorable trend. Middle and older adults with college level and a high school diploma also enjoyed favorable trends in health. This study suggests the possibility that the education-based overall disparity in health is increasing, but there are variations in the trend depending on age group. The increasing disparity mainly occurred among older adults.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.53-88
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• 2006

The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.27-51
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• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.29 no.4 s.55
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• pp.801-814
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• 1996

Background: Korean people could abuse healthy foods as well as medications, which might cause serious side effects. The aim of this study was elucidating liver dysfunction due to the self-medications of hepatotonics, healthy foods and herb medications by nested case-control study. Methods: Study subjects were drawn from male members of Seoul Cohort Study who were recruited by self-administered structured questionnaire survey through mailing to the healthy men between the age of 40 and 59 years through the program of biennial health check-up offered by Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC). The liver dysfunction was defined as the level of serum AST and ALT above 40 IU/L and increased in more than one hunderd per-cent during the 2 year follow-up period. To estimate the odds ratio between self-medication and liver dysfunction after controlling for potential confounders, logistic regression was performed. Results: During the follow-up period, 30 members were identified to fit into case criteria and 2,625 members were selected as control. In logistic regression analyses, history of healthy foods intake, age under 45 years, obesity, and habit of regular exercise were significantly associated with liver dysfunction. The following factors exhibited no statistical significance: intake of hepatotonics, of herb medicine; history of disease in family, of operation, and of radiologic examination; smoking habits and drinking amounts. Conclusion: The significant association between the intake of healthy foods and the liver dysfunction illustrates that chronically optional overuse of healthy foods might bring to hazards to health. As the increasing trend of the size of purchasing healthy foods in Korea, pharmacoepidemiologic studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of the widely used healthy foods should be performed in the near future.