• Title/Summary/Keyword: 측정지표

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Prospective Study of the Immunologic Factors Affecting the Prognosis of Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia (중증 지역사회획득 폐렴환자의 예후에 영향을 미치는 면역지표에 대한 연구)

  • Hwang, Jae-Kyung;Lee, Ho-Moeng;Song, Kwang-Sik;Park, Gye-Young;Park, Jeong-Woong;Park, Jae-Kyung;Jeong, Seong-Hwan;Ahn, Jeong-Yeal;Seo, Yiel-Hea;Nam, Gui-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.437-449
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    • 2001
  • Background : In the severe community-acquired pneumonia, it has been known that the immune status is occasionally suppressed. This study was performed to identify the immunologic markers related with the prognostic factors in severe community-acquired pneumonia. Methods : 23 patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia were involved in this study, and divided into survivor (16) and nonsurvivor (7) groups. In this study, the medical history, laboratory tests(complete blood counts, routine chemistry profile, immunoglobulins, complements, lymphocyte subsets, cytokines, sputum and blood culture, urine analysis), and chest radiographs were scrutinized. Results : 1) Both groups had lymphopenia(total lymphocyte count $995.6{\pm}505.7/mm^3$ in the survivor and $624.0{\pm}287.6/mm^3$ in the nonsurvivor group). 2) The T-lymphocyte count of the nonsurvivor group($295.9{\pm}203.0/mm^3$) was lower than the survivor group($723.6{\pm}406.5/mm^3$) (p<0.05). 3) The total serum protein(albumin) was $6.0{\pm}1.0(2.7{\pm}0.7)\;g/d{\ell}$ in the survivor and $5.2{\pm}1.5(2.3{\pm}0.8)g/d{\ell}$ in the nonsurvivor group. The BUN of the nonsurvivor group($41.7{\pm}30.0mg/d{\ell}$) was higher than that of the survivor group($18.9{\pm}9.8mg/d{\ell}$)(p<0.05). The creatinine concentration was higher in the nonsurvivor group($1.8{\pm}1.0mg/d{\ell}$) than that in the survivor group($1.0{\pm}0.3mg/d{\ell}$)(p<0.05). 4) The immunoglobulin G level was higher in the survivor group($1433.0{\pm}729.5mg/d{\ell}$) than in the nonsurvivor group($849.1{\pm}373.1mg/d{\ell}$) (p<0.05). 5) The complement $C_3$ level was $108.0{\pm}37.9mg/d{\ell}$ in the survivor group and $88.0{\pm}32.1mg/d{\ell}$ in the nonsurvivor group. 6) A cytokine study showed an insignificant difference in both groups. 7) Chronic liver disease, DM, and COPD were major underlying diseases in both groups. Conclusion : These results suggest that decreased a T-lymphocyte count and immunoglobulin G level, and an increased BUN and creatinine level may be associated with the poor prognosis of severe community-acquired pneumonia.

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Effect of Ketanserin and Positive End Expiratory Pressure Ventilation on Hemodynamics and Gas Exchange in Experimental Acute Pulmonary Embolism (실험적 급성 폐동맥색전증에서 Ketanserin과 Positive End Expiratory Pressure Ventilation이 혈류역학 및 환기에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang-Do;Lee, Young-Hyun;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo;Kim, Keun-Youl;Han, Yong-Chol
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 1993
  • Background: In acute pulmonary embolism it has been postulated that the constriction of bronchi and pulmonary artery secondary to neurohumoral response plays an important role in cardiopulmonary dysfunction in addition to the mechanical obstruction of pulmonary artery. Serotonin is considered as the most important mediator. Positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP) stimulates $PGI_2$ secretion from the vascular endothelium, but its role in acute pulmonary embolism is still in controversy. Methods: To study the cardiopulmonary effect and therapeutic role of Ketanserin, selective antagonist of 5-HT2 receptor, and PEEP in acute pulmonary embolism experimental acute pulmonary embolism was induced in dogs with autologous blood clot. The experimental animals were divided into 3 groups, that is control group, Ketanserin injection group and PEEP application group. Results: Thirty minutes after embolization, mean pulmonary arterial pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance increased and cardiac output decreased. $PaO_2,\;P\bar{v}O_2$ and oxygen transport decreased and physiological shunt and $PaCO_2$ increased. After injection of Ketanserin, comparing with control group, mean pulmonary arterial pressure, pulmonary vascular resistance and physiological shunt decreased, while cardiac output, $PaO_2$ and oxygen transport increased. All these changes sustained till 4 hours after embolization. After PEEP application pulmonary vascular resistance, $PaO_2$ and $PaCO_2$ increased, while physiological shunt, cardiac output and oxygen transport decreased. After discontinuation of PEEP, mean pulmonary arterial pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance decreased and were lower than control group, while $PaO_2$ and cardiac output increased and higher than control group. $PaCO_2$ decreased but showed no significant difference comparing with control group. Conclusion: It can be concluded that Ketanserin is effective for the treatment of acute pulmonary embolism. With PEEP hemodynamic status deteriorated, but improved better than control group after discontinuation of PEEP. Thus PEEP may be applied carefully for short period in acute pulmonary embolism if the hemodynamic status is tolerable.

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The Influence of Aging on Pulmonary Function Tests in Elderly Korean Population (한국에서 노화에 따른 폐기능지표의 변화양상)

  • Lee, Jae-Myung;Kim, Eun-Jung;Kang, Min-Jong;Son, Jee-Woong;Lee, Seung-Joon;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.752-759
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    • 2000
  • Background : Many studies have shown that pulmonary function differs widely among race, age and geographical residency. By virtue of the improvement of nutrition and environment, the elderly population in Korea is markedly increasing and so are the ages of patients complaining respiratory symptoms. However, we do not have our own data on the pulmonary functional reserve of elderly persons in Korea. We evaluate the deterioration of pulmonary functional reserve and standardize the predictive values of pulmonary function in the elderly population. Method : Pulmonary function tests were conducted in 100 men and 100 women over the age of 65. We analyzed changes of FVC and $FEV_1$ according to age and height by linear regression. We compared our new multiple linear regression equation with other equations currently used in Korea. Results : In men, the mean age was $71.5{\pm}5.2$(mean${\pm}$SD) years and the mean height was $163.6{\pm}6.2$cm. The mean FVC was $3.42{\pm}0.49{\ell}$ and the mean $FEV_1, $2.72{\pm}v$. In women, the mean age was $72.0{\pm}5.1$ years and the mean height was $149.1{\pm}5.9$cm. The mean FVC was $2.22{\pm}0.42{\ell}$ and the mean $FEV_1$ $1.83{\pm}0.34{\ell}$. Multiple linear regression equation using age and height as an independent factors was as follows : FVC(${\ell}$)=1.857-0.0356$\times$age(year)+0.02517$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.279), $FEV_1(${\ell}$)=1.340-0.02698$\times$age(year)+0.02021$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.255) in men, FVC(${\ell}$) =-0.09765-0.03332$\times$age(year)+0.03164$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.435), $FEV_1(${\ell}$)=-0.l69-0.02469$\times$age(year)+0.02539$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.41) in women. Conclusion : We established prediction regressions for pulmonary functional tests in the elderly Korean population. We also confirmed that currently adopted equations do not exactly anticipate the expected pulmonary functional reserve in the aged person over 65 years old. We suggest that our new equations from this study should be applied to interpret the pulmonary function tests in the elderly population in Korea.

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A Methodology to Develop a Curriculum based on National Competency Standards - Focused on Methodology for Gap Analysis - (국가직무능력표준(NCS)에 근거한 조경분야 교육과정 개발 방법론 - 갭분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Byeon, Jae-Sang;Ahn, Seong-Ro;Shin, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2015
  • To train the manpower to meet the requirements of the industrial field, the introduction of the National Qualification Frameworks(hereinafter referred to as NQF) was determined in 2001 by National Competency Standards(hereinafter referred to as NCS) centrally of the Office for Government Policy Coordination. Also, for landscape architecture in the construction field, the "NCS -Landscape Architecture" pilot was developed in 2008 to be test operated for 3 years starting in 2009. Especially, as the 'realization of a competence-based society, not by educational background' was adopted as one of the major government projects in the Park Geun-Hye government(inaugurated in 2013) the NCS system was constructed on a nationwide scale as a detailed method for practicing this. However, in the case of the NCS developed by the nation, the ideal job performing abilities are specified, therefore there are weaknesses of not being able to reflect the actual operational problem differences in the student level between universities, problems of securing equipment and professors, and problems in the number of current curricula. For soft landing to practical curriculum, the process of clearly analyzing the gap between the current curriculum and the NCS must be preceded. Gap analysis is the initial stage methodology to reorganize the existing curriculum into NCS based curriculum, and based on the ability unit elements and performance standards for each NCS ability unit, the discrepancy between the existing curriculum within the department or the level of coincidence used a Likert scale of 1 to 5 to fill in and analyze. Thus, the universities wishing to operate NCS in the future measuring the level of coincidence and the gap between the current university curriculum and NCS can secure the basic tool to verify the applicability of NCS and the effectiveness of further development and operation. The advantages of reorganizing the curriculum through gap analysis are, first, that the government financial support project can be connected to provide quantitative index of the NCS adoption rate for each qualitative department, and, second, an objective standard is provided on the insufficiency or sufficiency when reorganizing to NCS based curriculum. In other words, when introducing in the subdivisions of the relevant NCS, the insufficient ability units and the ability unit elements can be extracted, and the supplementary matters for each ability unit element per existing subject can be extracted at the same time. There is an advantage providing directions for detailed class program and basic subject opening. The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Employment and Labor must gather people from the industry to actively develop and supply the NCS standard a practical level to systematically reflect the requirements of the industrial field the educational training and qualification, and the universities wishing to apply NCS must reorganize the curriculum connecting work and qualification based on NCS. To enable this, the universities must consider the relevant industrial prospect and the relation between the faculty resources within the university and the local industry to clearly select the NCS subdivision to be applied. Afterwards, gap analysis must be used for the NCS based curriculum reorganization to establish the direction of the reorganization more objectively and rationally in order to participate in the process evaluation type qualification system efficiently.

Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Anti-climacterium Effects of Gagamguibiondam-tang in Ovariectomized Rats (난소적출로 유발된 랫트 갱년기 장애에 대한 가감귀비온담탕의 생리활성 효과 평가)

  • Han, Sang-Gyeom;Kim, Dong-Chul
    • The Journal of Korean Obstetrics and Gynecology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.18-44
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The object of this study was to observe the anti-climacterium activity of Gagamguibiondam-tang (GGOT) on ovariectomized (OVX) rats, a well-documented rodent models resembles with women postmenopausal climacterium symptoms, as including cardiovascular diseases, obesity, hyperlipidemia, osteoporosis, organ steatosis and mental disorders. Methods: In this study, anti-climacteric effects were evaluated separated into three categories; 1) anti-obese, 2) anti-uterine atrophy and 3) anti-osteoporotic effects. Five groups were used (8 rats in each group); sham control, OVX control, GGOT 500, 250 and 125 mg/kg administered groups. Twenty-eight days after bilateral OVX surgery, GGOT were orally administered, once a day for 84 days, and then the changes on the body weight and gain during experimental periods, serum estradiol levels, abdominal fat pad and uterus weights with histopathology of abdominal fat pads (total thickness and mean adipocyte diameters) and uterus (total, epithelial and mucosal thickness, percentages of uterine gland regions) for anti-obese and estrogenic effects. In addition, femur, tibia and fourth or fifth lumbar vertebrae (L4 or L5) wet, dry and ash weights, mineral density (BMD), bone strength (failure load), serum osteocalcin and bone specific alkaline phosphatase (bALP) contents, histological and histomorphometrical analyses - bone mass and structure with bone resorption, were monitored for anti-osteoporosis activity. Results: As a result of OVX, noticeable increases of body weight and gains, food and water consumption, weights of abdominal fat pad deposited in dorsal abdominal cavity, serum osteocalcin levels were demonstrated in this experiment with decrease of uterus, femur, tibia and L5 weights, serum bALP and estradiol levels. In addition, marked hypertrophic changes of adipocytes located in deposited abdominal fat pads, uterine disused atrophic changes, decreases of bone mass and structures of femur, tibia and L4 were also observed in OVX control rats with dramatic increases of bone resorption markers, the Ocn and OS/BS at histopathological and histomorphometrical analysis in this study as compared with sham-operated control rats, suggesting the estrogen-deficient climacterium symptoms - obese and osteoporosis were induced by OVX, respectively. However, these estrogen-deficient climacterium symptoms induced by bilateral OVX in rats were significantly inhibited by 84 days of continuous oral treatment of GGOT 500, 250 and 125 mg/kg, respectively. Especially, GGOT 500, 250 and 125 mg/kg showed clear dose-dependent inhibitory activities on the OVX-induced climacterium signs. Conclusion: The results suggest that oral administration of GGOT 500, 250 and 125 mg/kg has clear dose-dependent favorable anti-climacterium effects - estrogenic, anti-obese and anti-osteoporotic activities in OVX rats in this experiment.

Interlaboratory Comparison of Blood Lead Determination in Some Occupational Health Laboratories in Korea (일부 산업보건기관들의 혈중연 분석치 비교)

  • Ahn, Kyu Dong;Lee, Byung Kook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 1995
  • The reliable measurement of metal in biological media in human body is one of critical indicators for the proper evaluation of its toxic effect on human health. Recently in Korea the necessity of quality assurance of measurement in occupational health and occupational hygiene fields brought out regulatory quality control program. Lead is often used as a standard metal for the program in both fields of occupational health and hygiene. During last 20 years lead poisoning was prevalent in Korea and still is one of main heavy metal poisoning and the capability of the measurement of blood lead is one of prerequisites for institute of specialized occupational health in Korea. Furthermore blood lead is most important indicator to evaluate lead burden of human exposure to lead and the reliable and accurate analysis is most needed whenever possible. To evaluate the extent of the interlaboratory differences of blood lead measurement in several well-known institute specialized in occupational health in Korea, authors prepared 68 blood samples from two storage battery industries and all samples were divided into samples with 2 ml. One set of 68 samples were analyzed by authors's laboratory(Soonchunhyang University Institute of Industrial Medicine: SIIM) and 40 samples of other set were analyzed by C University Institute of Industrial Medicine(CIIM) and the rest 28 samples of other set were analyzed by Japanese institute(K Occupational Health Center:KOHC). Authors also prepared test bovine samples which were obtained from Japanese Federation of Occupational Health Organization (JFOHO) for quality control. Authors selected 2 other well-known occupational health laboratories and one laboratory specialized for instrumental analysis. A total of 6 laboratories joined the interlaboratory comparison of blood lead measurement and the results obtained were as follows: 1. There was no significant difference in average blood lead between SIIM and CIIM in different group of blood lead concentration, and the relative standard deviation of two laboratories was less than 3.0%. On the other hand, there was also no significant difference of average blood lead between SIIM and KOHC with relative standard deviation of 6.84% as maximum. 2. Taking less than 15% difference of mean or less than 6 ug/dl difference in below 40 ug/dl in whole blood as a criteria of agreement of measurement between two laboratories, agreement rates were 87.5%(35/40) and 78.6%(22/28) between SIIM and CIIM, SIIM and KOHC respectively. 3. The correlation of blood lead between SIIM and CIIM was 0.975 (p=0.0001) and the regression equation was SIIM = 2.19 + 0.9243 ClIM, whereas the correlation between SUM and KOHC was O.965(p=0.0001) with the equation of SIIM = 1.91 + 0.9794 KOHC. 4. Taking the reference value as a dependent variable and each of 6 laboratories's measurement value as a independent variable, the determination coefficient($R^2$) of simple regression equations of blood lead measurement for bovine test samples were very high($R^2>0.99$), and the regression coefficient(${\beta}$) was between 0.972 and 1.15 which indicated fairly good agreement of measurement results.

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Analysis of Isolated Proteinuria on School Urinary Mass Screening Test in Busan and Kyungsangnam-do Province (학교 신체 검사에서 발견된 단독 단백뇨의 분석)

  • Oh Dong-Hwan;Kim Jung-Soo;Park Ji-Kyoung;Chung Woo-Yeong
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.142-149
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : The urinary mass screening program for the detection of urinary abnormalities in school aged population has been performed in Seoul since 1981. Nation-wide urinary mass screening program was also performed since 1998. The aim of this study was to analyze the cause and nature of isolated proteinuria detected by chance on the urinary mass screening test in Busan and Kyungsangnam-do Province Methods : The medical records of 44 cases of isolated proteinuria detected by chance on the urinary mass screening test in Busan and Kyungsangnam-do Province, and evaluated for urinary abnormalities at the pediatrics outpatients renal clinics of Busan Paik Hospital from April 2002 to August 2003 were reviewed prospectively. Results : The cause and incidence of isolated proteinuria were as follows; transient proteinuria 4 cases(9.1%), orthostatic proteinuria 36 cases(81.8%) and persistent proteinuria 4 cases (9.1%). The total protein amount of the 24 hour urine were $121.0{\pm}136.4\;mg$ in transient proteinuria, $179.1{\pm}130.0\;mg$ in orthostatic proteinuria and $1532.8{\pm}982.5\;mg$ in persistent proteinuria. In the orthostatic proteinuria group, the total protein amount of the 24 hour urine was in the range of 40-616 mg. Spot urine protein/creatinine ratio(PCR) were $0.10{\pm}0.01$ in transient proteinuria, $0.61{\pm}0.61$ in orthostatic proteinuria and $4.35{\pm}4.04$ in persistent proteinuria. In the orthostatic proteinuria group, spot me PCR was in the range of 0.09-2.32. Renal biopsy was peformed in 4 children of the persisitent proteinuria group. They showed minimal change in 1 case, membranoproliferatiye glomerulonephritis in 2 cases and secondary renal amyloidosis in 1 case. Conclusion : The majority of isolated proteinuria which was detected by chance on school urinary mass screening were transient or orthostatic proteinuria. Even though the incidence of persistent proteinuria was much lower, it is necessary to take care of these children regularly and continuously, because persistent proteinuria itself is a useful marker of the progressive renal problems.

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Assessment Study on Educational Programs for the Gifted Students in Mathematics (영재학급에서의 수학영재프로그램 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hyun;Whang, Woo-Hyung
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.235-257
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    • 2010
  • Contemporary belief is that the creative talented can create new knowledge and lead national development, so lots of countries in the world have interest in Gifted Education. As we well know, U.S.A., England, Russia, Germany, Australia, Israel, and Singapore enforce related laws in Gifted Education to offer Gifted Classes, and our government has also created an Improvement Act in January, 2000 and Enforcement Ordinance for Gifted Improvement Act was also announced in April, 2002. Through this initiation Gifted Education can be possible. Enforcement Ordinance was revised in October, 2008. The main purpose of this revision was to expand the opportunity of Gifted Education to students with special education needs. One of these programs is, the opportunity of Gifted Education to be offered to lots of the Gifted by establishing Special Classes at each school. Also, it is important that the quality of Gifted Education should be combined with the expansion of opportunity for the Gifted. Social opinion is that it will be reckless only to expand the opportunity for the Gifted Education, therefore, assessment on the Teaching and Learning Program for the Gifted is indispensible. In this study, 3 middle schools were selected for the Teaching and Learning Programs in mathematics. Each 1st Grade was reviewed and analyzed through comparative tables between Regular and Gifted Education Programs. Also reviewed was the content of what should be taught, and programs were evaluated on assessment standards which were revised and modified from the present teaching and learning programs in mathematics. Below, research issues were set up to assess the formation of content areas and appropriateness for Teaching and Learning Programs for the Gifted in mathematics. A. Is the formation of special class content areas complying with the 7th national curriculum? 1. Which content areas of regular curriculum is applied in this program? 2. Among Enrichment and Selection in Curriculum for the Gifted, which one is applied in this programs? 3. Are the content areas organized and performed properly? B. Are the Programs for the Gifted appropriate? 1. Are the Educational goals of the Programs aligned with that of Gifted Education in mathematics? 2. Does the content of each program reflect characteristics of mathematical Gifted students and express their mathematical talents? 3. Are Teaching and Learning models and methods diverse enough to express their talents? 4. Can the assessment on each program reflect the Learning goals and content, and enhance Gifted students' thinking ability? The conclusions are as follows: First, the best contents to be taught to the mathematical Gifted were found to be the Numeration, Arithmetic, Geometry, Measurement, Probability, Statistics, Letter and Expression. Also, Enrichment area and Selection area within the curriculum for the Gifted were offered in many ways so that their Giftedness could be fully enhanced. Second, the educational goals of Teaching and Learning Programs for the mathematical Gifted students were in accordance with the directions of mathematical education and philosophy. Also, it reflected that their research ability was successful in reaching the educational goals of improving creativity, thinking ability, problem-solving ability, all of which are required in the set curriculum. In order to accomplish the goals, visualization, symbolization, phasing and exploring strategies were used effectively. Many different of lecturing types, cooperative learning, discovery learning were applied to accomplish the Teaching and Learning model goals. For Teaching and Learning activities, various strategies and models were used to express the students' talents. These activities included experiments, exploration, application, estimation, guess, discussion (conjecture and refutation) reconsideration and so on. There were no mention to the students about evaluation and paper exams. While the program activities were being performed, educational goals and assessment methods were reflected, that is, products, performance assessment, and portfolio were mainly used rather than just paper assessment.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.