• Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.300-305
• /
• 2005

As the current level of birth rate of Korea has dramatically declined, it is obvious that pediatric dentistry will also be affected by this change. This study was performed for the purpose of understanding on the current fertility levels of Korea. The formal data on the number of live births(NLB), crude birth rate(CBR), and total fertility rate(TFR) published annually from the National Statistical Office of Korea from 1992 to 2000 were used as materials for this study. The TFR values from 1990 to 2002 of Korea were compared with those of some western countries with similar history of decreased birth and the CBR values of the metropolitan cities and the capital city Seoul in 2003 were compared domestically, yielding to results as follows. 1. Recent birth rate of Korea was decreased continuously. NLB was about 490,000 CBR was 10.2 and TFR was 1.19. 2. TFR of Korea in 2002 was 1.17, the lowest in the world. 3. There was a large difference in the NLB and CBR between local prefectures and towns of Seoul domestically. Additional population studies and medico-economical studies to exactly predict the demands of pediatric dentistry and proper supplies of manpower in the future was thought urgently required.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.463-483
• /
• 2019

Since 2000, Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been different from that of Japan, Germany, and France where irreversible constants do not change easily in the fertility rate increasing or decreasing phase. It also showed a gradual increase from the minimum fertility level 1.08 in 2005 to 1.23 in 2015, which dropped to 1.17 in 2016, to 1.05 in 2017 and to 0.98 in 2018. This is similar to a double dip in the economic status of a recession. This paper investigates such a TFR increase and decrease factor that predicts the number of births affecting TFR, examines trends in the proportion of married and marital fertility rate broken down by TFR decomposition method. We also examined how these changes affect the change in TFR. According to the results, the number of births is estimated to be between 320 and 330 thousand in 2018, 300 thousand in 2020, 230 and 240 thousand in 2025. The proportion of married is steadily decreasing from 1981 to 2025, and the marital fertility rate is predicted to decline until 2002, then increase from 2003 to 2016 and decrease from 2017 to 2025. Finally, the trend of TFR in terms of number of births, TFR decomposition and statistical model is expected to show 0.98 in 2018, 0.93 to 1.11 in 2020 and 0.76 to 1.08 in 2025.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.16 no.1
• /
• pp.558-567
• /
• 2016

In the case of France which was successful in improving the ultra-low fertility rates of birth and South Korea, from the late 1980s, the birth rate fell continuously. In 1994, total fertility rate fell 1.66, but thanks to the active family policy of the government in the mid 1990s, it grew and maintained 2.0 average since the year 2008 until now. This study examined carefully how France was not classified as advanced welfare state, overcame the obstacles of low fertility problem in the socio-economic and institutional side and trying to get some suggestions from South Korea in which it of such problems in the field of low fertility.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.209-239
• /
• 2006

본 연구는 총부양비를 최소화하는 적정인구성장률을 인구학적 부양비와 경제적 부양비로 나누어 계산하구 그것이 무엇을 의미하가를 연구하는 것이 목적이다. 이 연구를 위하여 연구모형을 제시하고, 합계출산율과 적정인구성장률의 관계를 명시하며, 그것이 궁극적으로 적정인구 규모에 어떤 의미를 갖는가를 탐색한다. 인구학적 부양비를 최소화하는 인구성장률은 $-0.03%{\sim}0.15%$의 범위에 있으며, 그것은 합계 출산율로는 $2.1{\sim}2.2$명에 해당한다. 경제적 부양비를 최소화하는 인구성장률은 유년층과 노년층의 상대적 개인 소비비중에 따라 인구성장률과 그것이 함의하는 합계출산율은 달라진다. 예컨대, $u_1:u_3=2:1$일 때 적정인구성장률은 $-1.17{\sim}-0.93%$, 그것이 함의하는 합계출산율은 $1.5{\sim}1.6$명이다. 한편 유년층 대비 노년층의 상대적 소비비중이 증가하는 경우에는 적정인구성장율이 높아져야 한다. 예컨대 $u_1:u_2=1:1.2$일 때 적정인구성장률은 $0.42{\sim}0.45%$이고, 그것이 함의하는 합계출산율은 $2.3{\sim}2.4$명이다. 본 연구에서 적정인구추계를 위한 기초 여론조사에 따라 진행된 상대적 소비비중을 계산한 결과에 따르면, 유년층과 노년층의 상대적 개인 소비비중은 $u_1:u_2=1.25:1$이며, 이에 따른 현재의 상황에서 한국의 적정출산율은 $1.9{\sim}2.0$명 수준으로, 이에 해당하는 적정인구성장률은 대략 약간의 네거티브 성장을 하는 경우라고 할 수 있을 것이다.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.53-88
• /
• 2006

The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

• 한국사회복지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2005.04a
• /
• pp.423-444
• /
• 2005

본 논설은 1960년대 초 이래로 강력히 시행되었던 만국의 출산억제 정책이 여성들의 삶과 새로운 가족규범 및 사회 전반에 미친 영향력에 관하여 Global Standard의 출산복지라는 잣대에 준거하여 검토해 보고자 한다. 이러한 목적을 위하여 연구 방법론으로는 문헌조사 및 인터뷰를 사용한다. 문헌조사를 통하여 한국 정부 및 국내외관련기관들에 남겨진 기록들을 검토하고 인터뷰를 통하여 산아제한운동에 직접 관여하였거나 깊은 관심을 갖었던 주요 인사들의 증언을 수집한다. 구체적으로 1961년부터 1992년까지 시행된 한국의 출산율 감소정책에 대한 사례연구를 Global Standard의 출산복지에 비추어 검토한다. 한국의 인구통제정책의 근원을 밝혀내고 만국의 출산율 감소정책이 공식화되고 시행되는데 관련되었던 국내외의 세력들을 탐색해 본다. 특히 주요 정치인들과 정책 결정자들이 여성의 자율적 출산권(出産權)을 통제하게 된 동기, 철학 그리고 배후의 이익 등을 규명하기 위하여 본 연구는 정책의 여러 측면들을 탐구한다.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.453-459
• /
• 2022

A decrease in fertility rates causes problems such as decrease in the working-age population, and has a significant impact on national policies. Currently, the Republic of Korea has a conscription system that imposes military service on all men over the age of 18. However, the transition to the volunteer miliatry system is emerging as a social issue due to the decrease in the fertility rate. In this paper, news articles and comments searched for through the keyword ' volunteer miliatry system' were collected to analyze the social perception of the volunteer miliatry system from 2018, when the fertility rate dropped to less than 1. Some of the collected comments were labeled, and emotional levels were calculated through deep learning models. Through this study, we found that awareness of recruitment system conversion did not increase as the decrease in the fertility rate, and it was confirmed that people's interest is gradually increasing.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.137-156
• /
• 2007

Total fertility rate (TFR) increased from the lowest 1.08 in 2005 to 1.13 in 2006, and a debate is made whether the increase is temporary or continuous as a result of various pro-natal policies. This study intends to explore policy implications revealed in recent fertility change using vital statistics. For this purpose, tempo-adjusted fertility rate by birth order, fertility rate by age of mother and birth order, age-specific fertility for married, and age-specific divorce rate for married are analyzed. The increase of TFR and births for 2006 is largely due to increase of first births at early thirties with slowdown of delayed first marriage and first child birth. The increase of female population (the third wave effect of baby boom) and first marriages of late twenties in 2006 and 2007 would lead to increase of fertility during 2007-2008. But further increase is uncertain because of the decrease trend of marital fertility and increase trend of never-married for twenties. TFRs for first and second births reduced rapidly, while TFRs for third and above births showed no changes, and second births were largely affected by tempo adjustment of fertility. Thus, constructing social environment for first and second births is more effective and necessary than encouraging third births. In addition, social responsibility of child care, child-women health issues due to delayed births, and the need for multi-cultural family support system are discussed.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.27-54
• /
• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

• Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
• /
• v.9 no.6
• /
• pp.197-221
• /
• 2013

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between the child care support policies and the birth rate in 33 OECD countries. In the structural equation modelling, the birth rate was the dependent variable while the cash-support policies, the child-care facility service policies, and the tax benefits policies were the independent variables. The analysis showed that the most effective factor on the birth rate was the child-care facility service policies. Regarding the effectiveness of the policy expenses, the cash-support policies showed stable fluctuation of effectiveness according to the fluctuation of cash amount, the child-care facility service policies. In conclusion, in order to increase the effectiveness of the cash-support policies, the adequate cost calculation to decrease the parents' burden for child-bearing, re-allocation of budget, and support methods and timing should be continually discussed. In addition, for the better effectiveness of the facility service policies, more various, comprehensive and high-quality facility service policies that could balance home and work, should be implemented.