Browse > Article

Recent Fertility and its Policy Implications  

Park, Kyung-Ae (통계청 인구동향과)
Publication Information
Korea journal of population studies / v.30, no.3, 2007 , pp. 137-156 More about this Journal
Abstract
Total fertility rate (TFR) increased from the lowest 1.08 in 2005 to 1.13 in 2006, and a debate is made whether the increase is temporary or continuous as a result of various pro-natal policies. This study intends to explore policy implications revealed in recent fertility change using vital statistics. For this purpose, tempo-adjusted fertility rate by birth order, fertility rate by age of mother and birth order, age-specific fertility for married, and age-specific divorce rate for married are analyzed. The increase of TFR and births for 2006 is largely due to increase of first births at early thirties with slowdown of delayed first marriage and first child birth. The increase of female population (the third wave effect of baby boom) and first marriages of late twenties in 2006 and 2007 would lead to increase of fertility during 2007-2008. But further increase is uncertain because of the decrease trend of marital fertility and increase trend of never-married for twenties. TFRs for first and second births reduced rapidly, while TFRs for third and above births showed no changes, and second births were largely affected by tempo adjustment of fertility. Thus, constructing social environment for first and second births is more effective and necessary than encouraging third births. In addition, social responsibility of child care, child-women health issues due to delayed births, and the need for multi-cultural family support system are discussed.
Keywords
total fertility rate; low fertility; fertility; first marriage; female population; pro-natal policy;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 김두섭 (2005) '한국의 제2차 출산력 변천과 그 인과구조' <인구와 사회>1 (1): 23-53
2 김두섭 (2007) 집문당
3 김현숙. 류덕현. 민희철 (2006) <장기적 인적자본 형성을 위한 조세. 재정정책: 출산율 결정요인에 대한 경제학적 분석> 한국조세연구원
4 은기수 (2001) '결혼연령 및 결혼코호트와 첫 출산간격의 관계' <한국사회학> 35(6): 105-139
5 은기수 (2004) <가치관과 혼인 및 출산 전국가족조사에 따른 한국가족의현실과 정책전망> 여성부
6 전광희 (2002) '출산력' pp.81-113 김두섭. 박상태. 은기수 편 <한국의 인구> 통계청
7 통계청 (2007a) <2006년 인구동태통계연보(총괄. 출생 .사망편)>
8 통계청 (2007b) <2006년 인구동태통계연보(혼인. 이혼편)>
9 CSOI(Central Statistics Office Ireland, Department of the Taoiseach(Prime Minister)) (2007) http://www.cso.ie/census
10 Choe, Minja Kim R. Retherford and S. K. Kim (2004) 'Very low fertility in South Korea: Patterns and Prospects' Paper presented at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of Korea
11 보건복지부 (2007a) '금년도 저출산 3.4조원. 고령사회대비 3.9조원, 총 7.3조원 지원키로-정부와 지방자치단체 팔 걷고 나선다' 1. 31. 보도자료
12 이삼식 외 (2005) <2005년도 전국 결혼 및 출산동향조사> 저출산고령사회위원회. 보건복지부. 한국보건사회연구원
13 전광희 (2006) '한국의 혼인력과 출산력: 추이와 전망' <통계> 대한통계협회 32(1/2): 60-90
14 Park, Kyung Ae (2006) 'Fertility decline in Korea: Trends, determinants, and policy implications' Population and Society 2(2): 77-113
15 Choe, Minja Kim and Kyung Ae Park (2006) 'Fetility decline in SouthKorea: Forty years of policy-behavior dialogue' Korea Journal of Population Studies 29(2): 1-27   과학기술학회마을
16 공선영 (2006) '경제위기 이후 인구학적 특성 및 사회경제적 특성이 기혼 여성의 출산에 미친 영향' <보건과 사회과학> 19(1): 119-149
17 Choe, Minja Kim, Larry L. Bumpass and Noriko O. Tsuya (2004) 'Employment' pp. 95-113 in Marriage. Work and Family Life in Comparative Perspective, edited by Norik. O Tsuya and Larry L. Bumpass. Honolulu. HI: University of Hawaii Press
18 Bongaarts, John and G. Feeney (1998) 'On the quantum and tempo of fertility' Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Yi, Zeng and Kenneth Land (2001) 'A sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates' Demography 38(1): 17-28   DOI
20 통계청 (2006) <장래인구추계>
21 보건복지부 (2007b) '출생아수 및 합계출산율 당초 예상보다 크게 증가' 5.8. 보도자료
22 Statistics Bureau. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan (2007) http://www.stat.go.jp
23 Bongaarts, John (1999) 'The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world' Population Studies 53 (3): 277-289   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Lee, Jungmin and Myungho Paik (2006) 'Sex preferences and fertility in South Korea during the year of the horse' Demography 43(2): 269-292   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Census Bureau. US Department of Commerce (2006) http://www.census.gov
26 통계청 (2007c) <2006년 주민등록인구통계연보>
27 김태헌. 이삼식. 김동희 (2006) '인구 및 사회경제적 차별출산력-인구센서스 자료 분석을 중심으로' <한국인구학> 29(1): 1-23   과학기술학회마을
28 보건복지부 (2007c) '선천성이상아 조사 결과' 5. 17. 보도자료
29 유삼현 (2006) '지역별 차별출산력의 분석: 저출산 인과구조의 이해' <인구와 사회> 2(2): 53-76
30 Kohler, Hans-Peter, F. C. Billiari and J. A. Ortega (2002) 'The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 90s' Population and Development Review 28(4): 641-680   DOI   ScienceOn
31 김태헌 (2005) '가치관 변화와 저출산' <보건복지포럼 통권> 102: 16-24