• Title/Summary/Keyword: 출력예측

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Analysis of prediction model for solar power generation (태양광 발전을 위한 발전량 예측 모델 분석)

  • Song, Jae-Ju;Jeong, Yoon-Su;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2014
  • Recently, solar energy is expanding to combination of computing in real time by tracking the position of the sun to estimate the angle of inclination and make up freshly correcting a part of the solar radiation. Solar power is need that reliably linked technology to power generation system renewable energy in order to efficient power production that is difficult to output predict based on the position of the sun rise. In this paper, we analysis of prediction model for solar power generation to estimate the predictive value of solar power generation in the development of real-time weather data. Photovoltaic power generation input the correction factor such as temperature, module characteristics by the solar generator module and the location of the local angle of inclination to analyze the predictive power generation algorithm for the prediction calculation to predict the final generation. In addition, the proposed model in real-time national weather service forecast for medium-term and real-time observations used as input data to perform the short-term prediction models.

A Development of System for Flood Runoff Forecasting using Neural Network Model (신경망 모형을 이용한 홍수유출 예측시스템의 재발)

  • Ahn, Sang-Jin;Jun, Kye-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.771-780
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study is to test a development of system for flood runoff forecasting using neural network model. As the forecasting models for flood runoff the neural network model was tested with the observed flood data at Gongju and Buyeo stations. The neural network model consists of input layer, hidden layer, and output layer. For the flood events tested rainfall and runoff data were the input to the input layer and the flood runoff data were used in the output layer. To make a choice the forecasting model which would make up of runoff forecasting system properly, real-time runoff of river when flood periods were forecasted by using neural network model and state-space model. A comparison of the results obtained by the two forecasting models indicated the superiority and reliability of the neural network model over the state-space model. The neural network model was modified to work in the Web and developed to be the basic model of the forecasting system for the flood runoff. The neural network model developed to be used in the Web was loaded into the server and was applied to the main stream of Geum river. For the main stage gauging stations mentioned above the applicability of the selected forecasting model, the Neural Network Model, was verified in the Web.

수직 관다발형 비등관에서의 이상 유동 불안정성 특성 해석

  • 황대현;유연종;김긍구;장문희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.463-468
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    • 1998
  • 수직 관다발형 비등관에서의 밀도파 진동 및 유동 폭주형 이상유동 불안정성을 해석하기 위하여 선형화 기법 및 D-partition 방법론에 근거한 해석 코드(ALFS)를 개발하고 기존 실험자료 분석을 통해 코드의 예측 성능을 평가하였다. 그 결과 이상유동이 평형상태에 있는 것으로 가정하는 가장 단순한 모델인 HEM은 전반적으로 유동 불안정성 발생 시점의 열출력을 실험치보다 약 20% 정도 낮게 예측하였으며, 이상 유동의 속도 및 온도의 비평형 상태를 고려하는DEM과 DNEM에 의한 예측 결과는 7∼15%의 평균 오차 범위에서 실험 자료를 예측하는 것으로 나타났다.

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Performance analysis with parameter errors in predictive control based T-type 3-level inverter (예측제어 기반의 T-타입 3-레벨 인버터에서 파라미터 오차에 따른 성능 분석)

  • Yoon, JongTae;Lee, KuiJun
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2018.07a
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    • pp.296-297
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    • 2018
  • 본 논문은 3상 T-type 3-레벨 인버터의 모델예측제어에 관한 연구이다. 모델예측제어는 시스템의 모델링을 통한 최적의 성능을 제공하는 제어기법으로 PI 제어보다 빠른 동특성을 갖지만, 정확한 파라미터 값이 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 시스템 파라미터 오차가 3상 T-type 3-레벨 인버터의 예측제어에서 어떤 영향을 주는지 알아보고 출력 파형을 분석한다.

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A Machine Learning-Based Method to Predict Engine Power (머신러닝을 이용한 기관 출력 예측 방법에 관한 연구)

  • KIM, Dong-Hyun;HAN, Seung-Jae;JUNG, Bong-Kyu;Han, Seung-Hun;LEE, Sang-Bong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.851-857
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    • 2019
  • This study is about ship horsepower prediction of machine learning method using the big data of ship. Currently, new ships use the ISO15016 method to predict external environmental resistance through mathematical equations but due to complicated equations and requires many input variables so it is less applicable to be used in ship. In this recent research, we propose a model capable of predicting ship performance with high performance using SVM (Support Vector Machine) algorithm which shows excellent performance in recent prediction and recognition. The proposed predictive model has the advantage of being able to predict better performance than ISO15016 only if secured big data is used. In this study, we compared the ISO15016 technique and the SVM algorithm-based horsepower analysis method using the 178K bulk carrier's voyage data to reduce ship model data preparation, which is a disadvantage of ISO15016, and improve inaccurate horsepower prediction performance.

Accessing LSTM-based multi-step traffic prediction methods (LSTM 기반 멀티스텝 트래픽 예측 기법 평가)

  • Yeom, Sungwoong;Kim, Hyungtae;Kolekar, Shivani Sanjay;Kim, Kyungbaek
    • KNOM Review
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2021
  • Recently, as networks become more complex due to the activation of IoT devices, research on long-term traffic prediction beyond short-term traffic prediction is being activated to predict and prepare for network congestion in advance. The recursive strategy, which reuses short-term traffic prediction results as an input, has been extended to multi-step traffic prediction, but as the steps progress, errors accumulate and cause deterioration in prediction performance. In this paper, an LSTM-based multi-step traffic prediction method using a multi-output strategy is introduced and its performance is evaluated. As a result of experiments based on actual DNS request traffic, it was confirmed that the proposed LSTM-based multiple output strategy technique can reduce MAPE of traffic prediction performance for non-stationary traffic by 6% than the recursive strategy technique.

Prediction of harmful algal cell density in Lake Paldang using machine learning (머신러닝을 활용한 팔당호 유해남조 세포수 예측)

  • Seohyun Byeon;Hankyu Lee;Jin Hwi Kim;Jae-Ki Shin;Yongeun Park
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.234-234
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    • 2023
  • 유해 남조 대발생(Harmful Algal blooms, HABs)이 담수호에 발생하면 마이크로시스틴과 같은 독성물질과 맛·냄새 물질을 생성하여 상수원이용과 친수활동을 방해한다. 그래서 유해 남조 대발생 전 유해남조 세포수를 예측하여 선제적 대응하는 것은 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구는 머신러닝기반 Random Forest(RF)를 활용하여 팔당댐 앞의 유해남조 세포수를 예측하는 모델을 개발하고 성능을 평가하고자 한다. 모델 구축을 위해 2012년 4월부터 2021년 12월까지의 팔당호(삼봉리, 경안천) 및 남북한강(의암댐~이포보)권역의 조류, 수질, 수리/수문, 기상 자료를 수집하여 입력 및 출력 자료로 이용하였다. 수집된 데이터에는 다양한 입력변수들이 있어 남조 세포수 예측 성능 비교를 위한 전체 26개 변수 적용과 통계학적으로 상관관계가 높은 12개 변수 적용을 통해 모델을 구축하였다. 입력, 출력 자료로 이용한 유해남조 세포수는 로그변환된 값으로 사용하였으며 일반적인 조류 시료 채취기간이 7일이므로 7일 후를 예측하기 위한 모델을 구축하였다. 구축한 모델의 성능은 실측데이터와 예측데이터의 R2로 산출하여 평가하였다. 전체 26개 입력변수로 모델 구축 후 학습 및 검증 수행 결과 R2의 학습 0.803, 검증 0.729로 나타났고, 유해남조 세포수와 유의미한 상관관계를 보이는 12개 입력변수로 모델 구축 후 학습 및 검증 수행 R2은 학습 0.784, 검증 0.731로 나타났다. 두 모델의 성능을 살펴본 결과 입력변수 개수의 변화에 따른 성능차이는 크지 않은 것으로 나타났으며, 남조세포수 예측을 위한 모델로서 활용가능함을 알 수 있었다. 향후 연구에서는 Random Forest 외 다른 기계학습 모델들과 딥러닝 모델을 통해 남조세포수 예측 성능이 높은 모델을 구축해볼 필요성이 있다.

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Measurement of Gain Coefficient and Saturation Power of CW Waveguide CO_2$$ Laser (연속발진 도파형 이산화탄소 레이저의 이득계수 및 포화출력 측정)

  • 이승걸;김현태;박대윤
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.162-168
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    • 1990
  • Two ZnSe loss plates were installed in the resonator of waveguide CO2 laser which consisted of Pyrex capillary tube in order to change the internal loss. By rotating the loss plates, the output variations with the internalloss was measured on various discharge conditions. The variations could be explained by the Rigrod theory. and the saturation power and the unsaturated gain coefficient were determined by fitting of the experimental results. It was found that the saturation power increased while the unsaturated gain coefficient reduced as the discharge current or the gas flow rate increased.reased.

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