• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정적 의사

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Estimation of Structural Deterioration of Sewer using Markov Chain Model (마르코프 연쇄 모델을 이용한 하수관로의 구조적 노후도 추정)

  • Kang, Byong Jun;Yoo, Soon Yu;Zhang, Chuanli;Park, Kyoo Hong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.421-431
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    • 2023
  • Sewer deterioration models can offer important information on prediction of future condition of the asset to decision makers in their implementing sewer pipe networks management program. In this study, Markov chain model was used to estimate sewer deterioration trend based on the historical structural condition assessment data obtained by CCTV inspection. The data used in this study were limited to Hume pipe with diameter of 450 mm and 600 mm in three sub-catchment areas in city A, which were collected by CCTV inspection projects performed in 1998-1999 and 2010-2011. As a result, it was found that sewers in sub-catchment area EM have deteriorated faster than those in other two sub-catchments. Various main defects were to generate in 29% of 450 mm sewers and 38% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation, while serious failure in 62% of 450 mm sewers and 74% of 600 mm in 100 years after the installation in sub-catchment area EM. In sub-catchment area SN, main defects were to generate in 26% of 450 mm sewers and 35% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation, while in sub-catchment area HK main defects were to generate in 27% of 450 mm sewers and 37% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation. Larger sewer pipes of 600 mm were found to deteriorate faster than smaller sewer pipes of 450 mm by about 12 years. Assuming that the percentage of main defects generation could be set as 40% to estimate the life expectancy of the sewers, it was estimated as 60 years in sub-catchment area SN, 42 years in sub-catchment area EM, 59 years in sub-catchment area HK for 450 mm sewer pipes, respectively. For 600 mm sewer pipes, on the other hand, it was estimated as 43 years, 34 years, 39 years in sub-catchment areas SN, EM, and HK, respectively.

Digital Hologram Compression Technique By Hybrid Video Coding (하이브리드 비디오 코팅에 의한 디지털 홀로그램 압축기술)

  • Seo, Young-Ho;Choi, Hyun-Jun;Kang, Hoon-Jong;Lee, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.5 s.305
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2005
  • According as base of digital hologram has been magnified, discussion of compression technology is expected as a international standard which defines the compression technique of 3D image and video has been progressed in form of 3DAV which is a part of MPEG. As we can identify in case of 3DAV, the coding technique has high possibility to be formed into the hybrid type which is a merged, refined, or mixid with the various previous technique. Therefore, we wish to present the relationship between various image/video coding techniques and digital hologram In this paper, we propose an efficient coding method of digital hologram using standard compression tools for video and image. At first, we convert fringe patterns into video data using a principle of CGH(Computer Generated Hologram), and then encode it. In this research, we propose a compression algorithm is made up of various method such as pre-processing for transform, local segmentation with global information of object image, frequency transform for coding, scanning to make fringe to video stream, classification of coefficients, and hybrid video coding. Finally the proposed hybrid compression algorithm is all of these methods. The tool for still image coding is JPEG2000, and the toots for video coding include various international compression algorithm such as MPEG-2, MPEG-4, and H.264 and various lossless compression algorithm. The proposed algorithm illustrated that it have better properties for reconstruction than the previous researches on far greater compression rate above from four times to eight times as much. Therefore we expect that the proposed technique for digital hologram coding is to be a good preceding research.

A Study on the Value-Relevance of Intangible Expenditure: compare high-technology firms to low-technology firms (첨단산업과 비첨단산업의 무형자산성 지출의 가치관련성에 대한 비교연구)

  • Lee, Chae Ri
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2014
  • This study is to investigate the effects of intangible assets such as research & development, education & training and advertisement on firm values of high-technology firms and low-technology firms listed in the KOSDAQ market, and to analyze the value-relativeness between the audit quality of companies and the expenditure of intangible assets. The substitute measurement of firm values is Tobin's Q model. The sample period for positive analysis is from 2003 to 2008, and the samples, excepting for financial business, are manufacturing companies of closing accounts corporate on December, based on companies of KOSDAQ that are listed in security. Finally, data from about 305 companies are used in this analysis. Followings are the results of the analysis. First, research & development, education & training of high-technology firms have an effect on firm values, and education & training of low-technology have an effect on firm values. Second, we find that audit quality(BIG4) increases the value relevance of R&D expenditures of high-technology firms and audit quality(BIG4) increases the value relevance of education & training expenditures of low-technology firms. This paper is meaningful in that it verified the value-relativeness of cost of intangible assets compared with high-technology firms to low-technology firms.

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A Path Analytic Exploration of Consumer Information Search in Online Clothing Purchases (온라인 의복구매를 위한 소비자 정보탐색의 경로분석적 탐구)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Knight, Dee K.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1721-1732
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    • 2007
  • This study identified types of information source, and explored a path model for consumer information search by shopping attributes in the context of online decision making. Participants completed self-administered questionnaires during regularly scheduled classes. A total of 219 usable questionnaires were obtained from respondents who enroll at universities in the southwestern region of the United States. For data analysis, factor analysis and path model estimation were used. Consumer information source was classified into three types for online clothing purchases: Online source, Offline retail source, and Mass media. Consumers were more likely to rely on offline retail source for online clothing purchases, than other sources. In consumer information search by shopping attributes, online sources were more likely to be related to transaction-related attributes(e.g., incentive service), whereas offline retail source(e.g., displays in stores, manufacturer's catalogs and pamphlets) were more likely to be related to product and market related attributes(e.g., aesthetics, price) when purchasing clothing online. Also, the path model emphasizes the effect of shopping attributes on traditional retailer search behavior, leading to online purchase intention for clothing. This study supports consumer information search by attributes, and discusses a managerial implication of multi-channel retailing for apparel.

Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Rainfall using Copula Model (Copula 모형을 이용한 이변량 강우빈도해석)

  • Joo, Kyung-Won;Shin, Ju-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.827-837
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    • 2012
  • The estimation of the rainfall quantile is of great importance in designing hydrologic structures. Conventionally, the rainfall quantile is estimated by univariate frequency analysis with an appropriate probability distribution. There is a limitation in which duration of rainfall is restrictive. To overcome this limitation, bivariate frequency analysis by using 3 copula models is performed in this study. Annual maximum rainfall events in 5 stations are used for frequency analysis and rainfall depth and duration are used as random variables. Gumbel (GUM), generalized logistic (GLO) distributions are applied for rainfall depth and generalized extreme value (GEV), GUM, GLO distributions are applied for rainfall duration. Copula models used in this study are Frank, Joe, and Gumbel-Hougaard models. Maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameter of copula, and the method of probability weighted moments is used to estimate the parameters of marginal distributions. Rainfall quantile from this procedure is compared with various marginal distributions and copula models. As a result, in change of marginal distribution, distribution of duration does not significantly affect on rainfall quantile. There are slight differences depending on the distribution of rainfall depth. In the case which the marginal distribution of rainfall depth is GUM, there is more significantly increasing along the return period than GLO. Comparing with rainfall quantiles from each copula model, Joe and Gumbel-Hougaard models show similar trend while Frank model shows rapidly increasing trend with increment of return period.

Optimization of Tank Model Parameters Using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (I): Methodology and Model Formulation (다목적 유전자알고리즘을 이용한 Tank 모형 매개변수 최적화(I): 방법론과 모형구축)

  • Kim, Tae-Soon;Jung, Il-Won;Koo, Bo-Young;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.677-685
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of multi-objective genetic algorithm(MOGA) in order to calibrate the parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model, Tank model. NSGA-II, one of the most imitating MOGA implementations, is combined with Tank model and four multi-objective functions such as to minimize volume error, root mean square error (RMSE), high flow RMSE, and low flow RMSE are used. When NSGA-II is employed with more than three multi-objective functions, a number of Pareto-optimal solutions usually becomes too large. Therefore, selecting several preferred Pareto-optimal solutions is essential for stakeholder, and preference-ordering approach is used in this study for the sake of getting the best preferred Pareto-optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effect of initial genetic parameters, which are generation number and Population size, to the performance of NSGA-II for searching the proper paramters for Tank model, and the result suggests that the generation number is 900 and the population size is 1000 for this study.

Development of a System Dynamics Model to Support the Decision Making Processes in the Operation and Management of Water Supply Systems (상수도 시스템의 운영 및 유지관리 의사결정 지원을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모형의 개발)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Kim, Kyu-Lee;Kim, Bong-Jae;Lim, Ki-Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.7
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    • pp.609-623
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    • 2010
  • In this paper the feedback loop mechanisms that are inherent in the management of water supply systems were identified based on the system dynamics modeling methodology. As a result, a system dynamics (SD) computer simulation model that can be used to aid efficient management of water supply systems was developed. The developed SD model can be used to predict operating conditions of water supply systems including the effects of pipe maintenance on the entire system. The developed model is consisted of water supply, pipe maintenance and water supply business finance model. The operation and maintenance data from a study water supply system were used to verify the model and to predict the past and future operating conditions of the system. The policy leverage that greatly affects the operating condition was evaluated by the sensitivity analyses for the operational indices due to changes in the exogenous variables. It was found that while the pipe maintenance related exogenous variables had great effects on the leakage and conditions of pipes, they did not have great effects on the major operational indices such as revenue water ratio. It is considered that the social costs due to leaks and pipe breaks and the corresponding mechanism of propagation of the costs must be modeled to better evaluate the effects of pipe maintenance on the operational conditions of water supply systems.

Manpower Demand Forecasting in Private Security Industry (민간경비 산업의 인력수요예측)

  • Kim, Sang-Ho
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.19
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2009
  • Manpower demand forecasting in private security industry can be used for both policy and information function. At a time when police agencies have fewer resources to accomplish their goals, forming partnership with private security firms should be a viable means to choose. But without precise understanding of each other, their partnership could be superficial. At the same time, an important debate is coming out whether security industry will continue to expand in numbers of employees, or level-off in the near future. Such debates are especially important for young people considering careers in private security industry. Recently, ARIMA model has been widely used as a reliable instrument in the many field of industry for demand forecasting. An ARIMA model predicts a value in a response time series as a linear combination of its own past values, past errors, and current and past values of other time series. This study conducts a short-term forecast of manpower demand in private security industry using ARIMA model. After obtaining yearly data of private security officers from 1976 to 2008, this paper are forecasting future trends and proposing some policy orientations. The result shows that ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is the most appropriate one and forecasts a minimum of 137,387 to maximum 190,124 private security officers will be needed in 2013. The conclusions discuss some implications and predictable changes in policing and coping strategies public police and private security can take.

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Framework for Optimum Scale Determination for Small Hydropower Development Using Economic Analysis (경제성분석에 의한 소수력 개발의 최적규모 결정 방안)

  • Kim, Kil-Ho;Yi, Choong-Sung;Lee, Jin-Hee;Shim, Myung-Pil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.995-1005
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    • 2007
  • This study presents a framework for optimum scale determination for small hydropower development in a river basin. The framework includes the construction of hydrology and topography data, the simulation of hydropower operation, the economic analysis, and the determination of optimum scale of the small hydropower. The optimum scale of design flow and facility are determined by Net Present Value among economic analysis indices. The investment cost is estimated by the cost function derived from the construction cost of existing small hydropower plants. The benefit from power generation is estimated by the price announced by government. The presented framework is applied to the two potential sites in Cho River basin for the dam and run-of-river type of plants. Finally, the sensitivity analysis for a design flow and scale of the plant is performed for the each site. The usage of the framework presented in the study is highly expected for the estimation of potential hydropower resources or the decision support tool for a proprietor by estimating the optimum scale and economical feasibility in advance.

Development of Pedestrian Delay Model at Signalized Intersections (신호교차로 보행자 지체모형 개발)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.283-294
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    • 2018
  • An accurate pedestrian-delay model is essential for the pedestrian-oriented evaluation of signalized intersection (SI). The crossing behaviors of pedestrians at signalized pedestrian crosswalks (SPCs) are various, and their arrival behaviors consist of two types, random and platoon. It is natural, hence, that the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival should be considered in order to estimate accurate pedestrian delay. Despite this necessity, a simple pedestrian-delay model that cannot explain these behaviors of pedestrian movements is still recommended in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). For these reasons, a pedestrian-delay model, suitable for various SPCs and SIs, is required to make pedestrian-oriented decisions on the design and operation of various SPCs and SIs. This paper proposes a novel pedestrian-delay model that is based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival. The proposed model consists of two sub models: the one for SPC and the other for SI. The SPC delay model was developed based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing during pedestrian green time. The SI delay model was designed based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and platoon arrival. The results of a numerical simulation showed that the proposed delay model can successfully overcome the under- and overestimation problems of the HCM model with explaining various behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival.