• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1109-1115
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• 2010

In this paper, exact confidence interval of hyper-geometric parameter, that is the probability of success p in the population is discussed. Usually, binomial distribution is a well known discrete distribution with abundant usage. Hypergeometric distribution frequently replaces a binomial distribution when it is desirable to make allowance for the finiteness of the population size. For example, an application of the hypergeometric distribution arises in describing a probability model for the number of children attacked by an infectious disease, when a fixed number of them are exposed to it. Exact confidence interval estimation of hypergeometric parameter is reviewed. We consider the performance of exact confidence interval estimates of hypergeometric parameter in terms of actual coverage probability by small sample Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1175-1182
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• 2011

In this paper, properties of exact confidence interval and some approximate confidence intervals of hyper-geometric parameter, that is the probability of success p in the population is discussed. Usually, binomial distribution is a well known discrete distribution with abundant usage. Hypergeometric distribution frequently replaces a binomial distribution when it is desirable to make allowance for the finiteness of the population size. For example, an application of the hypergeometric distribution arises in describing a probability model for the number of children attacked by an infectious disease, when a fixed number of them are exposed to it. Exact confidence interval estimation of hypergeometric parameter is reviewed. We consider the approximation of hypergeometirc distribution to the binomial and normal distribution respectively. Approximate confidence intervals based on these approximation are also adequately discussed. The performance of exact confidence interval estimates and approximate confidence intervals of hypergeometric parameter is compared in terms of actual coverage probability by small sample Monte Carlo simulation.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.6 no.9
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• pp.2343-2349
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• 1999

The hyper-geometric distribution software reliability growth model (HGDM) was recently developed and successfully applied to real data sets. The HGDM considers the sensitivity factor as a parameter to be estimated. In order to reflect the random behavior of the test-and-debug process, this paper generalizes the HGDM by assuming that the sensitivity factor is a binomial random variable. Such a generalization enables us to easily understand the statistical characteristics of the HGDM. It is shown that the least squares method produces the identical results for both the HGDM and the generalized HGDM. Methods for computing the maximum likelihood estimates and predicting the future outcomes are also presented.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.5 no.9
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• pp.2345-2352
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• 1998

The hyper-geometric distribution software reliability growth model was recently developed and successfully applied Due to mathematical difficultv of the maximum likclihmd method, the least squares method has hem suggested for parameter estimation by the previous studies. We first summarize and compare the minimization criteria adopted by the previous studies. It is theo shown that the weighted least squares method is more appropriate hecause of the nonhomogeneous variability of the number of newly detected faults. The adequacy of the weighted least squares method is illustrated by two numerical examples. Finally, we propose a new method fur predicting the number of faults newly discovered by next test instances. The new prediction method can be used for determining the time to stop testing.

• 한국ITS학회:학술대회논문집
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• v.2007 no.10
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• pp.196-201
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• 2007

현재 국내 ITS는 현장장비 유지관리에 대한 연구 및 고장관련 DB가 부족하여 예비부품수 및 교체시기 산정에 대한 규정이 없는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 실제 고장이력자료를 갖고 신뢰성 분석을 실시하여 단거리전용통신(DSRC)방식 노변기지국(RSE)의 예비부품수 및 교체시기를 산정하였다. 전체 수집기간동안의 고장자료는 욕조곡선의 형상을 나타내어 우발고장기간의 자료로 신뢰성 분석을 실시하였으나 고장 수명 분포 중 적합되는 분포가 없었다. 따라서, i)장비가동률과 ii)경험적(empirical) 누적분포함수(CDF) 곡선을 이용한 장비의 고장률(건/일)을 감안하여 예비부품수를 산정한 결과 16.22개 이상의 노변기지국(완제품)을 확보하여야 하는 것으로 분석되었다. 하자보수기간(2년)이 지난후 일정기간($2{\sim}3$년)이 지난 시점에서 향후 10년간에 대하여 수리하면서 사용하는 경우와 신품구입시의 총비용을 비교하여 산정한 교체시기는 10.67건/40개월 이상이다. 본 연구 수행결과 첫째, 비모수적 방법으로 적합도 검정을 실시하지 못하였다는 한계와, 둘째, 초기에 고장이 많이 발생하는 장비는 향후에도 고장이 많이 발생한다는 가정에 기반하여 향후 10년의 운영비용을 분석하였으나 이러한 가정을 입증하지는 못하였다. 따라서, 향후엔 본 연구에 사용된 자료가 고장 수명분포도 적합 되지 않은 원인을 분석하는 것과 분석대상 기간 이후의 자료를 추가하여 적합도 검정 및 신뢰성 분석을 실시하는 것이 필요하다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.735-744
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• 2009

In this paper, we introduce a fast approach for Bayesian detection of change points in long-memory processes. Since a heavy computation is needed to evaluate the likelihood function of long-memory processes, a method for simplifying the computational process is required to efficiently implement a Bayesian inference. Instead of estimating the parameter, we consider selecting a element from the set of possible parameters obtained by categorizing the parameter space. This approach simplifies the detection algorithm and reduces the computational time to detect change points. Since the parameter space is (0, 0.5), there is no big difference between the result of parameter estimation and selection under a proper fractionation of the parameter space. The analysis of Nile river data showed the validation of the proposed method.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.460-466
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• 2018

With the development of information technology, the scale of computer software system is constantly expanding. Reliability and cost of software development have a great impact on software quality. In this study, based on the software failure interval time data, a comparative analysis was performed on the characteristics of the software development cost model based on the lifetime distribution following the Type-2 Gumbel and Erlang distribution in the NHPP model. As a result, the trends of the cost curves for the Go-Okumoto model and the proposed Erlang model and the Type-2 Gumble model both decreased in the initial stage and gradually increased in the latter half of the failure time. Also, Comparing the Erlang model with the Type-2 Gumble model, we found that the Erlang model is faster and more cost-effective at launch. Through this study, Software operators should remove possible defects from the testing phase rather than the operational phase to reduce defects after the software release date, it is expected to be able to study the prior information needed to understand the characteristic of software development cost.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.95-108
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• 1996

There are many clinical trials where a large portion of the patients are cured of disease. In such a case, one might be more interested in testing the differences in cure rates rather than other types of differences in failure distribution. For ethical and economic reasons, clinical trials must be repeatedly monitored for evidence of treatment benefit or harm. In this article, we examined by simulation the properties of nonparametric group sequential methods for comparing the cure rates between two treatment groups during the trial in a wide range of alternatives, censoring rates and cure rates.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.228-233
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• 2000

Purpose: The aim of this study is to better understand the pattern and nature of reverse redistribution (RR) in myocardial perfusion imaging. Materials and Methods: In consecutive 20 acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients, frequency of RR was correlated with that of subendocardial MI that was detected by myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE). RR was judged to be present when there was more than one grade of worsening in perfusion at 24 hr delayed images compared with the initial rest images. MCE evaluated the significant lack of opacification in the subendocardial myocardium relative to the subepicardial myocardium to suggest the subendocardial MI. Kendall's nonparametric correlation coefficiency was calculated. Results: Concordant cases were 15 of 20 (75%) and correlation was statistically significant (p=0.0285). Conclusion: Our results suggested that RR was correlated with MCE-detected nontransmural MI.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2024

The phase-type, PH, distribution is defined as the time to absorption into a terminal state in a continuous-time Markov chain. As the PH distribution includes family of exponential distributions, it has been widely used in stochastic models. Since the PH distribution is represented and generated by an initial probability vector and a generator matrix which is called the Markovian representation, we need to find a vector and a matrix that are consistent with given set of moments if we want simulate a PH distribution. In this paper, we propose an approach to simulate a PH distribution based on distribution function which can be obtained directly from moments. For the simulation of PH distribution of order 2, closed-form formula and streamlined procedures are given based on the Jordan decomposition and the minimal Laplace transform which is computationally more efficient than the moment matching methods for the Markovian representation. Our approach can be used more effectively than the Markovian representation in generating higher order PH distribution in queueing network simulation.