• Title/Summary/Keyword: 초기분양률

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A Regression Model for Forecasting the Initial Sales Ratio of Apartment Building Projects (아파트 프로젝트의 초기 분양률 예측 회귀모델)

  • Son, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Do-Yeong;Kim, Sun-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2019
  • There are various factors affecting the success and failure of an apartment building project. However, after the unit sale price has been determined and the sale has started, the most important factor affecting on the project is the initial sales ratio for one month after the sale. Generally, developers predict an initial sales ratio by various data such as economic situation, the trend of the housing market, and the house price near the business place. However, it is very difficult for these factors to be calculated quantitatively in connection with the initial sales ratio. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a regression model for forecasting the initial sales ratio of apartment building projects. For this study, pre-sales data collection, correlation analysis between influencing factors, and regression model development are performed sequentially. The results of this study are used as basic data for predicting the initial sales ratio in the feasibility analysis of apartment building projects and are used as key data for the development of the risk management model.

A Study on the Prediction of Initial Sales Rate on Apartment Housing Projects (민간 아파트 사업의 초기계약률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seongsoo;Kim, Leeyoung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2015
  • Apartment developers consider the initial sales rate as an important indicator for their success of apartment development projects. They tried to achieve a secure level of initial sales rate. In spite of its importance, there is little research on the initial sales rate because of the difficulties in gathering proper data for analysis. This study, however, collects the data in initial sales rates in Su-won from various sources such as construction companies, marketing companies, sales companies and so on. By using this rare data, this study analyses the initial contract rate of apartment and estimates the initial contract rate by sales price. The result of this study shows that important of land area ratio, brand, and distance to park. It is expected that the proposed model will be used for apartment developers in sales planning phase.

Differences between Sale Prices and Lotting Prices in New Multi-family Housing Considering Housing Sub-Market (주택하부시장 특성을 고려한 신규 분양가와 입주후 가격 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Yeol;Kim, Hyung Soo;Park, Myung Je
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4D
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    • pp.523-531
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    • 2008
  • This study tried to find differences between housing lotting prices and sale prices owing to new multi-family housing price regulation. As the results of this study, they are as follows; First, this study shows housing market in Busan has a preferences of new housing which has a new housing form differing from the existing housing form. For example, the mixed-use apartment with higher stories shows steeper incline than the apartments with the existing forms. Second, the new housing prices are affected by the information that affect the price of the old existing housing. They are rates of green area of an apartment complex, the number of household, accessibility to downtown Busan and etc.. They are also confirmed factors that affect a rise of used-housing price in other studies. Third, brand value of apartments affects new housing prices. For example, if the major construction companies build the new apartment, it shows a rising trend than any other housing. Therefore, the local construction companies are expected to be put on a disadvantage places than major construction companies. Fourth, the lotting prices are the most important cause that lead to rise the new housing prices. Accordingly, the present lotting prices are expected that upward tendency the purchasing prices of the new housing will not continue, because the lotting prices have risen since the government removed lotting price regulations and exceeded the level of used-housing prices. And it denote that importance of housing sub-market which indicates rates of old existing housing market rising, frist preference Gu, second preference Gu, rate of multi-family housing.

Mineralization of organic materials and plant uptake in upland condition (밭 토양 조건에서 시비용 유기물질의 무기화와 식물체 흡수)

  • Lee, Youn;Lee, Sang-Min;Shin, Jae-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Organic Agriculture Conference
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    • 2009.12a
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    • pp.300-300
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    • 2009
  • 화학비료를 이용할 수 없는 유기농업에서의 양분관리를 위해서 녹비, 퇴비, 유박 등을 주 원료로 하는 유기질비료 등 다양한 유기물이 농경지에 투입되고 있다. 그러나 다양한 성분 및 탄소/질소비로 이루어진 유기물은 토양 중에서 분해되는 속도가 다르고, 토양수분함량, 통기성, 온도 등과 같은 토양조건에 따라서도 분해속도가 크게 차이가 난다. 본 실험에서는 유기농업에서 시비원으로 자주 이용하는 퇴비, 유박비료, 녹비조건의 알팔파 등을 이용하여 무기화율 및 양분이용률을 화학비료와 비교하였다. 농경지 투입시 유기물은 질소양분양(21kg N/10a)을 동일하게 투입하였으며 화학비료는 기비(전체량의 1/3)만을 투입하였는데 알팔파, 유박비료의 경우 노지조건에서 토양처리 후 1달 내에 가장 높은 무기화율을 보였으며 수분조건이 제한된 무기화통내에서의 무기화도 2개월 내에 대부분 이루어지는 것으로 나타났다. 수딘그라스를 2개월 재배한 결과 화학비료 질소 양분이용율은 70%, 탄질비가 낮은 유박 및 알팔파는 40%내외, 탄질비가 높고 분해가 어려운 가축분 왕겨퇴비는 10%에 불과했다. 즉 화학비료 대비 유기물 양분(질소)의 비효화 율은 알팔파는 60%, 유박비료는 54%, 퇴비는 14% 였다. 또한 화학비료(100%) 대비 인산 이용률(유박: 296%, 알팔파: 660%, 퇴비: 36%로, 인산의 이용율이 높은 것은 유기물로 투입된 인산의 량이 화학비료보다 낮아 상대적으로 유기물질에 의한 작물의 인산이용율이 높고, 화학비료는 토양중 고정화가 작물생육 초기에 일어나는데 비하여 유기물질은 서서히 분해되면서 작물에 흡수되어 인산이용율이 높은 것으로 추정된다. 수단그라스 1차수확 후 포장침수로 인한 생육불량으로 전 생육 과정을 통한 양분흡수율은 측정할 수 없었다.

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An Empirical Study on the Effect of Respondent Bias in PSM : Case in Apartment Pricing (PSM 가격평가 주체에 따른 아파트 가격결정 효용성 실증연구)

  • Cho, Han-Jin;Kim, Jong-Lim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2016
  • PSM is widely used pricing tool in field by the reason of data collection convenience and analytical intuitiveness. However, In high involvement environment, strategic respondent bias influence in reducing the price. By using 3 empirical cases of LH apartment for sale, We found that latent consumers' recognition of the range of acceptable and the range of optimal price are lower than real estate agent representative respondents'. This phenomenon is considered loss aversion effect of prospect theory to reduce loss by reducing price, and more influenced in high involvement situation than latent consumer respondents'. Also we found PSM result using real estate representative data is more useful in real market than latent consumers data distorted by loss aversion effects. The meaning of this study is finding some limitation in PSM using consumer data generally used. In further study, development of PSM measurement tool to minimize the effect of strategic bias are need to be studied. Also some new approaches in reinterpretation of the range of acceptable price and the range of optimal price are need to be followed.

Development of a Feasibility Evaluation Model for Apartment Remodeling with the Number of Households Increasing at the Preliminary Stage (노후공동주택 세대수증가형 리모델링 사업의 기획단계 사업성평가 모델 개발)

  • Koh, Won-kyung;Yoon, Jong-sik;Yu, Il-han;Shin, Dong-woo;Jung, Dae-woon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.22-33
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    • 2019
  • The government has steadily revised and developed laws and systems for activating remodeling of apartments in response to the problems of aged apartments. However, despite such efforts, remodeling has yet to be activated. For many reasons, this study noted that there were no tools for reasonable profitability judgements and decision making in the preliminary stages of the remodeling project. Thus, the feasibility evaluation model was developed. Generally, the profitability judgements are made after the conceptual design. However, decisions to drive remodeling projects are made at the preliminary stage. So a feasibility evaluation model is required at the preliminary stage. Accordingly, In this study, a feasibility evaluation model was developed for determining preliminary stage profitability. Construction costs, business expenses, financial expenses, and generally sales revenue were calculated using the initial available information and remodeling variables derived through the existing cases. Through this process, we developed an algorithm that can give an overview of the return on investment. In addition, the preliminary stage feasibility evaluation model developed was applied to three cases to verify the applicability of the model. Although applied in three cases, the difference between the model's forecast and actual case values is less than 5%, which is considered highly applicable. If cases are expanded in the future, it will be a useful tool that can be used in actual work. The feasibility evaluation model developed in this study will support decision making by union members, and if the model is applied in different regions, it will be expected to help local governments to understand the size of possible remodeling projects.

ON THE EFFECTS CHLORINITIES UPON GROWTH OF EARLIER LARVAE AND POST-LARVA OF A FRESH WATER PRAWN, MACROBRACHIUM ROSENBERGI(DE MAN) (담수산새우 Macrobrachium rosenbergi (de Man)의 초기유생 및 Post-larva.의 성장에 미치는 염분량에 관하여)

  • KWON Chin Soo;UNO Yutaka;OGASAWARA Yohismitsu
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.97-114
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    • 1977
  • The fresh water prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergi(de Man) is a very common species in Indopacific region, which inhaits both fresh and brackish water in low land area, most of rivers and especially aboundant in the lower reaches which are influenced by sea water. It is one of the largest and commercial species of genus Macrobrachium, which is commonly larger than $18\~21cm$ in body length, from the basis of eye-stalked to the distal of telson. As a part of the researches in order to investigate the possibilities on transplantation and propagation of this species, this work dealt with the problems on the effects of chlorinities upon zoeal larvae and post-larvae 1). metamorphosis rate and optimum chlorinity for metamorphosis to post-larve, 2). tolerance and comparative survival rate on various chlorinties, from fresh water to sea water $(19.38\%_{\circ}\;Cl)$, which reared for six days upon each stage of zoeal larvae, 3). accomodation rate on chlonities which reared for twelve days after transmigration into variant chlorinities of the range from $3.68\%_{\circ}$ Cl to $1.53\%_{\circ}$ Cl in the way of rearing of the range from $3.82\%_{\circ}$ Cl to $11.05\%_{\circ}$ upon each stage of zoea, 4). tolerance on both of fresh and sea water upon zoeal larva and post-larva under the condition of $28^{\circ}C{\pm}1$ in temperature and feeding on Artenia salina nauplii, 5). relationship between various chlorinities and grwth of post-larvae under the condition of $28^{\circ}C$ in tmperature and feeding on meat of clam. Thus these investigations were performed in order to grope for a comfortable method on seedmass production. Up to the present, the study on the effects of chlorinity upon earlier zoeal larvae and post-larvae of Macrobrachium species has been scarcely performed by workers with the exception of Lewis(1961) and Ling (1962,, 1967), even so their works were not so detailed. On the other hand, larvae of several species of this genus were reared at the water which mixed sea water so as to carry out complete metamorphosis to post-larva by workers in order to investigate on earlier 1 arval and earlier post-larval development, such as Macrobrachium lamerrei (Rajyalakshmi, 1961), M. rosenbergi and M. nipponense (Uno and Kwoa, 1969; Kwon and Uno, 1969), M. acanthurs (Choudhury, 1970; Dobkin, 1971), M. carcinus(Choudhury, 1970), M. formosense(Shokita, 1970), M. olfersii (Duggei et al., 1975), M. novaehallandiae (Greenwood et al., 1976), M. japonicum (Kwon, 1974) and M. lar (Shokita, personal communication), and there fore it is regarded that chlorinity is, generally, one of absolute factors to rear zoeal larvae of brackish species of Macrobrachium genus. Synthetic results on this work is summarized as the follwings: 1) Zoeal larvae required different chlorinities to grow according to each stage, and generally, it is regarded that optimum range of living and growing is from $7.63\%_{\circ}Cl\to\;7.63\%_{\circ}Cl$, and while differences of metamorphsis rate, from first zoea to post-larva, is rarely found in this range, and however it occurs apparently in both of situation at $7.63\%_{\circ}Cl$ below and $16.63\%_{\circ}Cl$ above and moreover, metamorphosis rate is delayed somewhat in case of lower chlorinity as compared with high chlorinity in these situations. 2) Accomodation in each chlorinity on the range, from fresh water to sea water, is different according to larval stages and while the best of it is, generally, on the range from $14.24\%_{\circ}Cl$ to $8.28\%_{\circ}Cl$ and favorite chlorinity of zoea have a tendency to remove from high chlorinity to lower chlorinity in order to advance larval age throughout all zoeal stages, setting a conversional stage for eighta zoea stage. 3) Optimum chlorinity of living and growth upon postlarvae is on the range of $4.25\%_{\circ}Cl$ below, and in proportion as approach to fresh water, growth rate is increased. 4) Post-large are able to live better in fresh water in comparison with zoeal larvae, which are only able to live within fifteen hours, and by contraries, post-larvae are merely able to live for one day as compared with ?미 larvar, which are able to live for six days more in sea water $19.38\%_{\circ}Cl\;above$. 5) Also, in case of transmigration into higher and lower chlorinities in the way of rearing in the initial chlorinities $ 3.82\%_{\circ}Cl,\;7.14%_{\circ}Cl\;and\;11.05%_{\circ}Cl$, accoodation rate is a follow: accomodation capacity in ease of removing into higher chlorinities from lower chlorinities is increased in proportion as earlier stages, setting a conversional stage for eighth zoea stage, and by contraries, in case of advanced stages from eighth zoea it is incraesed in proportion as approach to post-larva stage in the case of transmigration into lower chlorinity from higher chlorinity. On the other hand, it is interesting that in case of reciprocal transmigration between two different chlorinitiess, each survival rate is different, and in this case, also, its accomodation in each zoea stage has a tendency to vary according to larval stages as described above, setting a conversional stage for eighth zoea stage. 6) It is likely that expension of radish pigments on body surface is directly proportional to chlorinity during the period of zoea rearing, and therefore it seems like all body surfacts of zoea larvae be radish coloured in case of higher chlorinity. 7) By the differences that each zoeal larvae, postlarvae, juvaniles and adult prawn are required different chlorinity for inhabiting in each, it is regarded that this species migrats from up steam to near the estuary of the river which the prawns inhabits commonly in natural field for spawning and growth migration. 8) It had better maintainning chlorinities according to zoeal stage for a comfortable method on seed-mass production that earlier larva stages than eighth zoea are maintained on the range from $8\%_{\circ}Cl\;to\;12\%_{\circ}Cl$ to rear, and later larva stages than eighth zoea, by contraries, are gradually regula ted-to love chlorininity of the range from $7\%_{\circ}Cl\;to\;4\%_{\circ}Cl$ according to advance for post-larva stage.

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