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http://dx.doi.org/10.5345/JKIBC.2019.19.5.439

A Regression Model for Forecasting the Initial Sales Ratio of Apartment Building Projects  

Son, Seung-Hyun (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kyung Hee University)
Kim, Do-Yeong (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kyung Hee University)
Kim, Sun-Kuk (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kyung Hee University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction / v.19, no.5, 2019 , pp. 439-448 More about this Journal
Abstract
There are various factors affecting the success and failure of an apartment building project. However, after the unit sale price has been determined and the sale has started, the most important factor affecting on the project is the initial sales ratio for one month after the sale. Generally, developers predict an initial sales ratio by various data such as economic situation, the trend of the housing market, and the house price near the business place. However, it is very difficult for these factors to be calculated quantitatively in connection with the initial sales ratio. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a regression model for forecasting the initial sales ratio of apartment building projects. For this study, pre-sales data collection, correlation analysis between influencing factors, and regression model development are performed sequentially. The results of this study are used as basic data for predicting the initial sales ratio in the feasibility analysis of apartment building projects and are used as key data for the development of the risk management model.
Keywords
apartment building project; initial sales ratio; regression analysis; quantitative analysis model; risk management;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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