• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지진 예측

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Seismic Effect Monitoring using SAR Imagery (위성레이더 영상을 이용한 지진에 의한 지표변위 관측)

  • Yun, Hye-Won;Yu, Jung-Hum;Kim, Jin-Young;Park, Young Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2016.11a
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    • pp.357-358
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    • 2016
  • 최근 재난에 대한 광역적 탐지 및 피해상황을 예측하는데 위성레이더 영상의 활용방안이 대두되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 SENTINEL-1 위성레이더 영상을 활용하여 지진발생으로 인한 지표변위를 관측하고자 하였다. 차분간섭기법(DinSAR)을 적용하여 최근 발생한 이탈리아 중부 지진과 한반도 경주 지진의 지표변위를 관측하고 피해범위를 예측하였다. 연구결과 규모 6.4 이탈리아 지진에서 최대 20.1cm의 침하를 관측하였으며, 규모 5.8 경주 지진의 경우 발생지역 20km 범위에서 약 3cm의 지표변위를 관측하였다. 향후 지상 SAR 자료를 구축할 예정이며 재난지역의 다각적 관측자료 취득 및 보다 정확한 재난 피해를 파악 할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

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Estimation of Seismic Responses of Hualien LSST Model By the Substructure Method of Soil-Structure Inraction Analysis (Hualien 대형지진시험 모델의 지진응답해석)

  • 조양희;박형기
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 1997
  • Seismic responses of the Hualien large scale seismic test model on a layered soil site are estimated for three recorded earthquakes with different level of peak acceleration using two different approaches of soil-structure interaction analysis. The analysis results are then compared and evaluated with the recorded. The method adopted for the analysis is based on substructuring method using a lumped parameter model in both the frequency and time domain. The study results indicate that the proposed method can reasonably estimate the earthquake responses of a soil-structure interaction system of r engineering purposes if the techniques of defining input motion and modeling of the backfilled soil are prudently selected.

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Application of the Onsite EEW Technology Using the P-Wave of Seismic Records in Korea (국내 지진관측기록의 P파를 이용한 지진현장경보기술 적용)

  • Lee, HoJun;Jeon, Inchan;Seo, JeongBeom;Lee, JinKoo
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aims to derive a predictive empirical equation for PGV prediction from P-wave using earthquake records in Korea and to verify the reliability of Onsite EEW. Method: The noise of P wave is removed from the observations of 627 seismic events in Korea to derive an empirical equation with PGV on the base rock, and reliability of Onsite alarms is verified from comparing PGV's predictions and observations through simulation using the empirical equation. Result: P-waves were extracted using the Filter Picker from earthquake observation records that eliminated noises, a linear regression with PGV was used to derive a predictive empirical equation for Onsite EEW. Through the on-site warning simulation we could get a success rate of 80% within the MMI±1 error range above MMI IV or higher. Conclusion: Through this study, the design feasibility and performance of Onsite EEWS using domestic earthquake records were verified. In order to increase validity, additional medium-sized seismic observations from abroad are required, the mis-detection of P waves is controlled, and the effect of seismic amplification on the surface is required.

Relationship between Maximum Wave Heights of Tsunamis and Earthquake Parameters (지진 매개변수와 지진해일 최대파고의 상관관계)

  • Sim, Ju-Yeol;Ha, Tae-Min;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2009
  • The initial free surface profile and energy of a tsunami are closely related to the wave heights of a tsunami in nearshore and can be determined by using the earthquake parameters. Along the Western coast of Japan, the possibility of a tsunami triggering by undersea earthquakes is very high. Many seismologists have attempted to predict the parameters of earthquakes that could occur in these regions, but it is difficult to accurately predict them. As such, several case studies have been conducted involving behaviors of an unexpected tsunami that occurred in this region. If a relationship between the earthquake parameters and the wave heights of a tsunami is found, it would be easier to examine the effects of the tsunami. In this study, several virtual tsunami events have been simulated, and the wave heights of the tsunami are computed by varying the earthquake parameters to examine the relationship between the earthquake parameters and the tsunami wave heights. Numerical simulations have been conducted in virtual topography.

Stochastic Self-similarity Analysis and Visualization of Earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 발생한 지진의 통계적 자기 유사성 분석 및 시각화)

  • JaeMin Hwang;Jiyoung Lim;Hae-Duck J. Jeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2023
  • The Republic of Korea is located far from the boundary of the earthquake plate, and the intra-plate earthquake occurring in these areas is generally small in size and less frequent than the interplate earthquake. Nevertheless, as a result of investigating and analyzing earthquakes that occurred on the Korean Peninsula between the past two years and 1904 and earthquakes that occurred after observing recent earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula, it was found that of a magnitude of 9. In this paper, the Korean Peninsula Historical Earthquake Record (2 years to 1904) published by the National Meteorological Research Institute is used to analyze the relationship between earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. In addition, the problem solved through this paper was the first to investigate the relationship between earthquake data occurring on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. As a result of measuring the degree of self-similarity of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula using three quantitative estimation methods, the self-similarity parameter H value (0.5 < H < 1) was found to be above 0.8 on average, indicating a high degree of self-similarity. And through graph visualization, it can be easily figured out in which region earthquakes occur most often, and it is expected that it can be used in the development of a prediction system that can predict damage in the event of an earthquake in the future and minimize damage to property and people, as well as in earthquake data analysis and modeling research. Based on the findings of this study, the self-similar process is expected to help understand the patterns and statistical characteristics of seismic activities, group and classify similar seismic events, and be used for prediction of seismic activities, seismic risk assessments, and seismic engineering.

Study on Human Damage Prediction Method for Tsunami Disasters (지진해일발생시 인명피해 예측기법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Min;Ha, Tae-Min;Lee, Seung-Oh;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.2102-2104
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구에서는 수치모의을 통하여 최대범람구역을 설정하고, 지역주민들의 실제 피난상황을 모의하여 실제 지진해일이 발생했을 때 인명피해를 예측하는 기법을 개발하였다. 1983년 동해 중부 지진해일의 수치모형실험을 통하여 최대범람구역 및 범람시간을 설정하였고, 임원항 지역을 가상공간에서 재현하여 지역주민의 피난상황을 모의하였다. 최종 피난 지역은 3개로 설정하였으며, 각각 다른 지역을 설정하여 반복해서 실험하여 인명피해를 예측하고 수치모형실험 결과를 토대로 가장 적합한 피난 지역을 선택하였다. 인명 및 재산피해를 최소화하는 방재대책을 수립하는데 본 연구의 결과를 활용할 수 있다.

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A Study on Similitude Law for Evaluation of Seismic Performance (내진성능평가를 위한 상사법칙에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Nam-Sik;Kwak, Young-Hak;Chang, Sung-Pil
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.03a
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    • pp.208-215
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    • 2003
  • 지진하중에 대한 구조물의 동적 거동과 성능을 예측 평가하기 위하여 실험적 방법들이 흔히 사용되고 있으나, 실험장비의 제약과 구조물의 규모 등으로 대부분 축소모형실험에 의존하고 있다. 그러나 일반적인 상사법칙(similitude law)은 탄성범위에서 유도된 것으로 지진거동과 같은 비탄성 거동을 예측하는 경우에는 한계가 있다. 또한 탄성범위 내에서도 크기효과(size offset)가 발생하므로 축소모형의 실험결과를 원형 구조물에 직접 적용하는 것은 많은주의가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 원형 구조물(prototype)과 축소모형(scaled model)을 모두 실험 대상으로 하여 실제 축소모형만을 실험하여 원형 구조물의 거동을 예측하는 경우의 문제점을 확인하고 그 해결방법을 모색하고자 한다. 실제로 축소모형실험에서는 원형 구조물의 경계조건을 정확히 재현하기 어려우며, 실험모형의 제작과정과 실험과정에서의 모든오차가강성의 변화로 반영되어 나타난다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기하학적 상사율과 변화된 강성비(stiffness ratio)를 함께 고려하여 고유진동수의 오차를 보정하고 비탄성 거동중에도 직접적인 실험결과의 비교가 가능한 상사법칙을 제안하였다. 더불어 제안된 상사법칙을 적용한 유사동적실험 (pseudodynamic test)을 수행하여 실험오차보정(experimental error compensation)효과를 검증하였다.

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Prediction of recent earthquake magnitudes of Gyeongju and Pohang using historical earthquake data of the Chosun Dynasty (조선시대 역사지진자료를 이용한 경주와 포항의 최근 지진규모 예측)

  • Kim, Jun Cheol;Kwon, Sookhee;Jang, Dae-Heung;Rhee, Kun Woo;Kim, Young-Seog;Ha, Il Do
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we predict the earthquake magnitudes which were recently occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, using statistical methods based on historical data. For this purpose, we use the five-year block maximum data of 1392~1771 period, which has a relatively high annual density, among the historical earthquake magnitude data of the Chosun Dynasty. Then, we present the prediction and analysis of earthquake magnitudes for the return level over return period in the Chosun Dynasty using the extreme value theory based on the distribution of generalized extreme values (GEV). We use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and L-moments estimation for parameters of GEV distribution. In particular, this study also demonstrates via the goodness-of-fit tests that the GEV distribution can be an appropriate analytical model for these historical earthquake magnitude data.

Effects of Tsunami and Disaster Response System (뉴스초점 - 지진해일의 영향과 방재대책)

  • Kang, Young-Seung
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.45-48
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    • 2012
  • The 2011 Japan Tsunami caused tremendous damage to coastal areas. Because of their drastic propagation speed and large run-up height, nearshore tsunami can cause catastrophic damages on coastal communities within a short time. It is necessary to establish the tsunami hazard mitigation to reduce human injury housing damage. The construction of Tsunami warning system and production of hazard map are needed for minimizing damage by tsunami.

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