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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2022.35.1.119

Prediction of recent earthquake magnitudes of Gyeongju and Pohang using historical earthquake data of the Chosun Dynasty  

Kim, Jun Cheol (Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University)
Kwon, Sookhee (Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University)
Jang, Dae-Heung (Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University)
Rhee, Kun Woo (Department of History, Pukyong National University)
Kim, Young-Seog (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Pukyong National University)
Ha, Il Do (Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.35, no.1, 2022 , pp. 119-129 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this paper, we predict the earthquake magnitudes which were recently occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, using statistical methods based on historical data. For this purpose, we use the five-year block maximum data of 1392~1771 period, which has a relatively high annual density, among the historical earthquake magnitude data of the Chosun Dynasty. Then, we present the prediction and analysis of earthquake magnitudes for the return level over return period in the Chosun Dynasty using the extreme value theory based on the distribution of generalized extreme values (GEV). We use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and L-moments estimation for parameters of GEV distribution. In particular, this study also demonstrates via the goodness-of-fit tests that the GEV distribution can be an appropriate analytical model for these historical earthquake magnitude data.
Keywords
earthquake; generalized extreme value distribution; goodness-of-fit test; predicted return level;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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