• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.220-226
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• 2009

본 연구는 회귀모형을 부정하기보다는 새로운 모형을 도입하여, 회귀모형의 문제점을 극복하고 회귀모형과 상호보완적인 모형을 소개하고자 본 연구를 수행하였다. 현재까지 인공지능 분야에서 널리 이용되어 왔던 신경망모형(Neural Network Model)은 입력변수가 불완전하고 변동폭이 넓은 경우에도 해석이 가능하며, 데이터 수가 적거나 불규칙한 경우라도 사례의 반복학습을 통해 오차를 줄여나가기 때문에, 데이터 수에 민감한 영향을 받는 회귀모형보다 정밀한 산정이 가능하다(박우열, 차정환, 강경인, 2002). 이러한 신경망모형에 아파트 특성들을 도입하여 아파트 가격을 정밀하고 유효하게 예측하는 것은 아파트 가격에 대한 연구 분야에 큰 의미가 있다. 그리고 주택에 관한 기존 연구와 신규 연구에 신경망모형이 활용될 수 있으리라 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.379-385
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• 2010

본 연구는 회귀모형을 부정하기보다는 새로운 모형을 도입하여, 회귀모형의 문제점을 극복하고 회귀모형과 상호보완적인 모형을 소개하고자 본 연구를 수행하였다. 현재까지 인공지능 분야에서 멀리 이용되어 왔던 신경망모형 (Neural Network Model)은 입력변수가 불완전하고 변동 폭이 넓은 경우에도 해석이 가능하며, 데이터 수가 적거나 불규칙한 경우라도 사례의 반복학습을 통해 오차를 줄여나가기 때문에, 데이터 수에 민감한 영향을 받는 회귀모형보다 정밀한 산정이 가능하다(박우열, 차정환, 강경인, 2002). 이러한 신경망모형에 아파트 특성들을 도입하여 아파트 가격을 정말하고 유효하게 예측하는 것은 아파트 가격에 대한 연구 분야에 큰 의미가 있다. 그리고 주택에 관한 기존 연구와 신규 연구에 신경망모형이 활용될 수 있으리라 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.1471-1479
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• 2017

The variability of trade price index of apartment influences on the various aspect, especially economics, social phenomenon, industry, and culture of the country. In this article, the autoregressive error (ARE) model has been considered for analyzing the monthly trading price index of apartment data. About 16 years of the monthly data have been used from September 2001 to May 2017. In the ARE model, six macroeconomic variables are used as the explanatory variables for the rade price index of apartment. The six explanatory variables are mortgage rate, oil import price index, consumer price index, KOSPI stock index, GDP, and GNI. The result has shown that trading price index of apartment explained about 76% by the mortgage rate, and KOSPI stock index.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.21-34
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macro-finance variables on the correlation between the housing and stock markets because understanding the nature of time-varying correlations between different assets has important implications on portfolio allocation and risk management. Thus, we adopted the AG-DCC GARCH model to obtain time-varying, conditional correlations. Our sample ranged from January 2004 to November 2017. Our empirical result showed that the coefficients on asymmetric correlation were significantly positive, implying that correlations between the housing and stock markets were significantly higher when changes in the housing price and stock returns were negative. This finding suggested that the housing market has less hedging potential during a stock market downturn, when such a hedging strategy might be necessary. Based on the regression analysis, we found that the term spread had a significantly negative effect on correlations, while the credit spread had a significantly positive effect. This result could be interpreted by the risk premium effect.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.138-160
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• 2009

The urban housing market in Korea, especially in Seoul and the Capital region, has been revitalized with massive urban (re)developments and expanding real estate finance after the IMF crisis. This brought about a boom of housing price during the mid-2000s, which has been virtually stabilized by strong regulation policies of the previous government. But with impacts of the recent international financial crisis together with some inherent problems, the housing market of Korea faces with a worry of collapse in relation with the financial market volatility and the serious depression of real economy, and hence the current government attempts to implement strong deregulation policies on the housing market. In this paper it is argued that this kind of volatility of urban housing market seems to be caused by strategies of capital which involve continuous massive urban (re)development, residential segregation and appropriation of monopoly rent(or capital gain), and fictitious capitalization of real estates and integration of real estate market and financial market. In these reasons, the current tendency of urban housing price shows a slow downward, which seems to give the current neoliberal government a rationale for deregulation policies to prevent the downward tendency. But this paper suggests that such a slow downward of housing price shift would have positive effects on the housing market in particular and social and economic situations in general, and hence an alternative housing policy is required to realize such positive effects.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.411-420
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• 2015

With the rapid increase in the price of house lease, a unique housing form in Korea, a serious social issue has been raised as to the use value of house lease and residence stability of the ordinary people. This study thus aimed to analyze the direct factors that affect lease guaranteed loan and market volatility in order to explore the right direction of financial policy to reduce housing burdens. To this end, the direct variables affecting house lease guaranteed loan, including lease price, transaction price and lending rate, were defined. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), a time series analysis, was employed to dynamically explain the data. Based on the house lease prices and bank data on loans between January 2010 and December 2014, it was found that the increase in lease price was the direct result of the increase in lease guaranteed loan, not that of the decrease in lending rate or increase in housing transaction price.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.6 s.28
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• pp.98-106
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• 2005

The construction cost index and the forecasting model of apartment house can be efficient for evaluating the validness of the fluctuating price, and for making guidelines for construction firms when calculating their profit. In this study the previous construction cost index of apartment house was improved, and the forecasting model based on X-12 ARIMA was developed. According to the result, during the last five years the construction cost, excluding labor expense, has risen approximately to 22.7%. And during next three years, additional 16.8% rise of construction cost is expected. Those quantitative results can be utilized for evaluating the apartment house's selling price in an indirection, and be helpful to understand the variation pattern of the price.

• 주택과사람들
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• no.3 s.20
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• pp.33-36
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• 1992

[ ${\circ}$ ] 건설부는 성수기의 골재 부족 현상과 비수기의 골재생산업체의 경영난을 해소하기 위하여 골재비축계획을 마련하였음. -골재수요는 건설경기의 계절성으로 인하여 변동폭이 큰 반면 골재공급은 주문생산성 및 비탄력성으로 매년 성수기에 골재 부족현상이 나타나고 있으며 -골재생산업체는 비수기의 골재수요 감소로 조업의 중단 또는 단축이 불가피하여 유휴장비${\cdot}$인력의 발생으로 경영의 비효율성 초래 -따라서 비수기의 골재를 비축하므로서 ${\cdot}$ 골재수요를 창출하여 골재생산업체의 유휴장비와 인력의 활용이 가능하게 하여 경영의 어려움을 해결하고 ${\cdot}$ 비축골재를 성수기에 방출하여 골재부족현상에서 오는 골재가격의 상승과 부실공사를 방지하고자 함. ${\circ}$ 골재 비축 계획의 주요내용을 보면 -골재 비축자금 : 국민주택기금 100억원(연리 $10{\%}$ -비축자금 대여대상 : 1) 신도시 건설에 참여한 주택건설등록업자 중 현장에 배처플랜트 설치업체 2) 수도권 소재 KS 레미콘 생산업체 3) (주)한국골재산업 -자금대출공고 : ''91. 11. 25${\~}$''91. 11. 30(주택은행) -대상업체 선정 : ''91. 12. 1${\~}$''91. 12. 5(한국주택사업협회, 레미콘 공업협회 및 조합, (주) 한국골재산업이 상호 협의하여 결정) ${\circ}$ 예상 비축량은 매사 1,000천${m^{3}$로 동일조건 일괄공동계약 방식에 의해 12월${\~}$2월에 구매하여 5월${\~}$6월과 10${\~}$11월 성수기에 방출할 예정임.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.3-29
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• 2017

The study checked whether the trade-off relationship between the home ownerhip and welfare by Kemeny and Castles was still valid in four welfare regimes, and analysed the factors of change and stability on rate of home ownership between social democratic states and southern european states. Based on the results of the study, the relationship between housing ownership and public expenditure was confirmed only in the liberal welfare regime and in the conservative welfare regime, as evidenced by the 2014 data collection. Second, social democratic states have dramatically increased housing mortgage loans and showed signs of housing commodification but southern european states have showed pre commodification of housing, maintained comparatively whole home ownership and low mortgage loans. Third, social democratic states has resulted in a rise in housing demand and housing prices, through reduced new housing and social rented housing construction, home owenership friendly taxation and generous lending policies, but southern european states have maintained a stable housing demand and housing prices thanks to the rich housing stocks, extended family, self provision and self promotion by close relatives, and intergenerational inheritance and transfers of housing. Although sequence of the equity ownership and welfare are still unclear, it is not a rational alternatives to induce housing ownership through large mortgage loans.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.11
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• pp.59-70
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• 2013

As people invest most of their asset in real estate, there is high interest in changing in housing and real estate prices in the future for a digital economy. Various variables are affecting the housing and real estate market. Among them, four variables : households, productive population, interest rate and index price are chosen and analyzed representatively. This study is aimed to build decision model of apartment prices in Seoul empirically. From the analysis result the stock index is the only variable which is significant statistically to apartments in Seoul. From this study, the households and productive population show the same direction as shown in the previous studies before but not significant statistically. Among the independent variables, the stock index is chosen as a major variable of determinant of Seoul apartment price. From the result of the research, prediction of stock market should be preceded to forecast the movement of housing and real estate market in the future.