• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-32
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• 2018

In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

• Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.59-67
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• 2018

Objectives : The aims of this study were to know the frequency and the nature of cognitive dysfunction in type 2 diabetics, and to reveal influencing variables on it. Methods : From eighty type 2 diabetics (42 males and 38 females), demographic and clinical data were obtained by structured interviews. Cognitive functions were measured using the MMSE-K (Korean Version of the Mini-Mental State Examination) and the Korean Version of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA-K) tests. Severity of depression was evaluated by the Korean Version of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (K-HDRS). Results : 1) Among eighty type 2 diabetics, 13.75% were below 24 on the MMSE-K, while 38.8% were below 22 on the MoCA-K. 2) The total scores and subtest scores of the MoCA-K including visuospatial/ executive, attention, language, delayed recall and orientation were significantly lower in type 2 diabetics with cognitive dysfunction (N=31) than those without cognitive dysfunction (N=49) (p<0.001, respectively). 3) There were significant difference between type 2 diabetics with and those without cognitive dysfunction in age, education, economic status, body mass index, duration of diabetes, total scores of the K-HDRS, the MMSE-K and the MoCA-K (p<0.05, respectively). 4) The total scores of the MoCA-K had significant correlation with age, education, body mass index, family history of diabetes, duration of diabetes, total scores of the K-HDRS (p<0.05, respectively). 5) The risks of cognitive dysfunction in type 2 diabetics were significantly influenced by sex, education, fasting plasma glucose and depression. Conclusions : The cognitive dysfunction in type 2 diabetics seemed to be related to multiple factors. Therefore, more comprehensive biopsychosocial approaches needed for diagnosis and management of type 2 diabetes.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.58-66
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• 2009

Objectives: Active participation of poultry breeder in surveillance system of Avian Influenza (AI) is very important. Therefore this study was conducted to present basis data for active report of AI that is affected by media's coverage in poultry breeder. Methods: Subjects were 88 persons, 28 who were poultry breeder at epidemic area of AI and 60 who were general person at non-epidemic area. Data were collected by the trained investigator from Jul. 1 to Aug. 31, 2008. Respondents were interviewed by means of a structured questionnaire. Results: The third-person effect among perceptions of influence in media's report on the AI was higher in breeder (32.1%) than in non-breeder (10.0%). However, Confidence to media report on the AI was lower in breeder than in non-breeder. Intention to report of the AI was 71.4% in breeder respectively, was 90.0% in non-breeder. There was statistically significant lower in breeder than non-breeder. The cause of avoidance of report was 'economic damage' for 87.5%, which acocounted for the majority of cases. Confidence to media report on the AI were positively correlated with concern on the AI and perception on seriousness of the AI, but negatively correlated with the third-person effect. Conclusions: These results showed that intention to report of the AI of breeder was susceptible to influenced by the third person effect and confidence in media's report on the AI. Therefore we should give a special attention to increase active report of poultry breeder during epidemic period of AI which is consideration of reasonable strategy of media's coverage, including mind and emotion state of poultry breeder.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.619-624
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• 1999

This work was to study the potential health food use of germinated colored rice after germinating and drying using microwave under vacuum. Colored rice was soaked in water at $15^{\circ}C$ for 2 days and then germinated at $25^{\circ}C$ for $3{\sim}4\;days$. The germinated colored rice was dried by different drying methods: microwave vacuum drying 1, microwave vacuum drying $2\;(drying{\rightarrow}crushing{\rightarrow}drying)$, hot air drying, vacuum drying and freeze drying. Each drier except freeze drier was set to maintain the sample temperature at $60^{\circ}C$. During microwave vacuum drying 1 or 2, the sample reached $60^{\circ}C$ much faster (within 5 min) and was dried much faster ($2{\sim}3\;hrs$ than the other drying methods. The initial drying rate of microwave vacuum drying was ten times faster than that of hot air drying. The microwave vacuum drying 2 retained the highest ${\alpha}-amylase$ activity, followed by microwave vacuum drying 1, freeze drying, vacuum drying, and hot air drying.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.300-306
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• 2010

Purpose : Recent changes in the population structure of Korea, such as rapid decline in birth rate and exponential increase in old-aged people, prompted us to prepare a new health improvement program in children and adolescents. Methods : We reviewed current health screenings applied for children and adolescents in Korea and other developed countries. We collected and reviewed population-based data focused on mortality and morbidity, and other health-related statistical data. We generated problem lists in current systems and developed new principles. Results : Current health screening programs for children and adolescents were usually based on laboratory tests, such as blood tests, urinalysis, and radiologic tests. Almost all of these programs lacked evidence based on population data or controlled studies. In most developed countries, laboratory tests are used only very selectively, and they usually focus on primary prevention of diseases and health improvement using anticipatory guidance. In Korea, statistics on mortality and morbidity reveal that diseases related to lifestyle, such as obesity and metabolic syndrome, are increasing in all generations. Conclusion : We recommend a periodic health screening program with anticipatory guidance, which is focused on growth and developmental surveillance in infants and children. We no longer recommend old programs that are based on laboratory and radiologic examinations. School health screening programs should also be changed to meet current health issues, such as developing a healthier lifestyle to minimize risk behaviors—or example, good mental health, balanced nutrition, and more exercise.

• Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.154-162
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• 2011

Purpose : The aim of this study was to identify the clinical characteristics of lower respiratory tract infection due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in young children and to provide information for an effective guideline for palivizumab administration in Korea. Methods : We reviewed medical charts of 167 patients under 3 years of age who were hospitalized in Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital for lower respiratory tract infection between January 2007 and February 2011. Diagnosis of the virus was made based on the multiplex real time polymerase chain reaction. Results : There were 113 patients who were infected by respiratory syncytial virus. 90 patients were term infants and 23 patients were preterm infants. No difference was shown between term and preterm infants except the days of admission which was 9.0${\pm}$6.0 days and 12.6${\pm}$21.0 days respectively. In the preterm group their mean age at the time of admission was 5.21${\pm}$4.9 months and the mean gestational age was 33.1${\pm}$4.3 weeks, and the mean birth weight was 2,152${\pm}$950 g. Only 4 patients were born under 28 weeks gestational age and were candidates for palivizumab administration. Conclusion : Most of the patients with severe RSV lower respiratory tract infection were term or near term infants who were not candidates for palivizumab prophylaxis. A nationwide study is needed to make a new risk stratified guideline for RSV prophylaxis for our country.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.18
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• pp.135-183
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• 2003

Aerospace force is a determining factor in a modem war. The combat field is expanding to space. Thus, the legitimacy of establishing aerospace force is no longer an debating issue, but "how should we establish aerospace force" has become an issue to the military. The standard limiting on the military use of space should be non-aggressive use as asserted by the U.S., rather than non-military use as asserted by the former Soviet Union. The former Soviet Union's argument is not even strongly supported by the current Russia government, and realistically is hard to be applied. Thus, the multi-purpose satellite used for military surveillance or a commercial satellite employed for military communication are allowed under the U.S. principle of peaceful use of space. In this regard, Air Force may be free to develop a military surveillance satellite and a communication satellite with civilian research institute. Although MTCR, entered into with the U.S., restricts the development of space-launching vehicle for the export purpose, the development of space-launching vehicle by the Korea Air Force or Korea Aerospace Research Institute is beyond the scope of application of MTCR, and Air Force may just operate a satellite in the orbit for the military purpose. The primary task for multi-purpose satellite is a remote sensing; SAR sensor with high resolution is mainly employed for military use. Therefore, a system that enables Air Force, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, and Agency for Defense Development to conduct joint-research and development should be instituted. U.S. Air Force has dismantled its own space-launching vehicle step by step, and, instead, has increased using private space launching vehicle. In addition, Military communication has been operated separately from civil communication services or broadcasting services due to the special circumstances unique to the military setting. However, joint-operation of communication facility by the military and civil users is preferred because this reduces financial burden resulting from separate operation of military satellite. During the Gulf War, U.S. armed forces employed commercial satellites for its military communication. Korea's participation in space technology research is a little bit behind in time, considering its economic scale. In terms of budget, Korea is to spend 5 trillion won for 15 years for the space activities. However, Japan has 2 trillion won annul budget for the same activities. Because the development of space industry during initial fostering period does not apply to profit-making business, government supports are inevitable. All space development programs of other foreign countries are entirely supported by each government, and, only recently, private industry started participating in limited area such as a communication satellite and broadcasting satellite, Particularly, Korea's space industry is in an infant stage, which largely demands government supports. Government support should be in the form of investment or financial contribution, rather than in the form of loan or borrowing. Compared to other advanced countries in space industry, Korea needs more budget and professional research staff. Naturally, for the efficient and systemic space development and for the prevention of overlapping and distraction of power, it is necessary to enact space-related statutes, which would provide dear vision for the Korea space development. Furthermore, the fact that a variety of departments are running their own space development program requires a centralized and single space-industry development system. Prior to discussing how to coordinate or integrate space programs between Agency for Defense Development and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, it is a prerequisite to establish, namely, "Space Operations Center"in the Air Force, which would determine policy and strategy in operating space forces. For the establishment of "Space Operations Center," policy determinations by the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chief of Staff are required. Especially, space surveillance system through using a military surveillance satellite and communication satellite, which would lay foundation for independent defense, shall be established with reference to Japan's space force plan. In order to resolve issues related to MTCR, Air Force would use space-launching vehicle of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute. Moreover, defense budge should be appropriated for using multi-purpose satellite and communication satellite. The Ministry of National Defense needs to appropriate 2.5 trillion won budget for space operations, which amounts to Japan's surveillance satellite operating budges.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.149-169
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• 2020

"The Urban Renewal New Deal project", one of the government's major national projects, is about developing underdeveloped areas by investing 50 trillion won in 100 locations on the first year and 500 over the next four years. This project is drawing keen attention from the media and local governments. However, the project model which fails to reflect the original characteristics of the area as it divides project area into five categories: "Our Neighborhood Restoration, Housing Maintenance Support Type, General Neighborhood Type, Central Urban Type, and Economic Base Type," According to keywords for successful urban regeneration in Korea, "resident participation," "regional specialization," "ministerial cooperation" and "public-private cooperation", when local governments propose urban regeneration projects to the government, they can see that it is most important to accurately understand the characteristics of the city and push ahead with the projects in a way that suits the characteristics of the city with the help of local residents and private companies. In addition, considering the gentrification problem, which is one of the side effects of urban regeneration projects, it is important to select and implement urban regeneration types suitable for the characteristics of the area. In order to supplement the limitations of the 'Urban Regeneration New Deal Project' methodology, this study aims to propose a system that recommends urban regeneration types suitable for urban regeneration sites by utilizing various machine learning algorithms, referring to the urban regeneration types of the '2025 Seoul Metropolitan Government Urban Regeneration Strategy Plan' promoted based on regional characteristics. There are four types of urban regeneration in Seoul: "Low-use Low-Level Development, Abandonment, Deteriorated Housing, and Specialization of Historical and Cultural Resources" (Shon and Park, 2017). In order to identify regional characteristics, approximately 100,000 text data were collected for 22 regions where the project was carried out for a total of four types of urban regeneration. Using the collected data, we drew key keywords for each region according to the type of urban regeneration and conducted topic modeling to explore whether there were differences between types. As a result, it was confirmed that a number of topics related to real estate and economy appeared in old residential areas, and in the case of declining and underdeveloped areas, topics reflecting the characteristics of areas where industrial activities were active in the past appeared. In the case of the historical and cultural resource area, since it is an area that contains traces of the past, many keywords related to the government appeared. Therefore, it was possible to confirm political topics and cultural topics resulting from various events. Finally, in the case of low-use and under-developed areas, many topics on real estate and accessibility are emerging, so accessibility is good. It mainly had the characteristics of a region where development is planned or is likely to be developed. Furthermore, a model was implemented that proposes urban regeneration types tailored to regional characteristics for regions other than Seoul. Machine learning technology was used to implement the model, and training data and test data were randomly extracted at an 8:2 ratio and used. In order to compare the performance between various models, the input variables are set in two ways: Count Vector and TF-IDF Vector, and as Classifier, there are 5 types of SVM (Support Vector Machine), Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Gradient Boosting. By applying it, performance comparison for a total of 10 models was conducted. The model with the highest performance was the Gradient Boosting method using TF-IDF Vector input data, and the accuracy was 97%. Therefore, the recommendation system proposed in this study is expected to recommend urban regeneration types based on the regional characteristics of new business sites in the process of carrying out urban regeneration projects."

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.160-167
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• 2004

Objectives : There have been very few studies on the compliance of methylphenidate-immediate releasing form(MPH-IR), which is the most frequently used drug in Korea, in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder(ADHD). This study was conducted to investigate the compliance rate and the related factors in the one year pharmacotherapy process via OPD for children with ADHD. Method : Total 100 ADHD patients were selected randomly among patients who have been treated with MPH-IR from September in 2002 to December in 2002. All the selected patients were diagnosed with DSM-IV-ADHD criteria and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In March, 2003(at the time of 6 month treatment), all the patients and parents received the questionnaire for the compliance and satisfaction for MPH-IR treatment. In October 2003(at time of 1 year treatment), we, investigators evaluated the socio-demographic variables, developmental data, medical data, family data, comorbid disorders, treatment variables, and compliance rate. Through these very comprehensive data, The compliance rate at the time of mean 1 year treatment and the related factors were investigated. Result : 1) In the questionnaire for compliance and satisfaction for MPND treatment, the 60% of respondents(parents) reported more than moderate degree of satisfaction in the effectiveness of MPND. Their compliance rate for the morning prescription was 81%, but the rate of afternoon prescription was 43%. 2) In the evaluation at the time of 1 year treatment(October 2003), the 38% of parents were dropped out from the OPD treatment. The mean compliance rate for the 1 year treatment was 62%. the 38% of parents were dropped out from the OPD treatment. The mean compliance rate for the 1year treatment was 62%. 3) Compared with the noncompliant group(drop-out group), compliant group showed higher total, verbal and performance IQ scores. In the treatment variables, higher reposponder rate(clinician rating), higher medication dosage and more compliance rate in afternoon prescription were found in the compliant group compared with the noncompliant group. There were no statistical differences in the demographic variables(age, sex, SES, parental education level), medical data, developmental profiles and academic function. Conclusion : To our knowledge, this is the first report about the compliance rate of the MPH-IR treatment for the children with ADHD. The compliance rate at the time of mean 1year treatment was 62%, which was comparable with other studies performed in foreign countries, especially States. In this study, the compliance related factors were IQ score, clinical treatment response, dosage of MPH-IR, and early compliance for the afternoon prescription. These results suggest that clinician plan the strategies for the promotion of the early compliance for the after prescription and enhancement of overall treatment response.