• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.222-237
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• 2022

This study was performed to predict change of forestland area in future to 2050 based on System Dynamics Model which is based on feedback loop by causal relationship. As forestland area change in the future depends on potential forestland conversion demands, each demand type of forestland conversion such as agricultural, industrial, public and residential/commercial use was modeled using annual GDP, population, number of household, household construction permission area (1981~2019). In results, all of conversion demands would have continuously decreased to 2050 while residential and commercial land would be reduced from 2034. Due to such shortage, eventually, total of forestland in South Korea would have decreased to 6.18 million ha when compared to current 6.29 million ha. Moreover, the forestland conversion to other use types must be occurred continuously in future because most of forestland is owned privately in South Korea. Such steady decrement of forestland area in future can contribute to the shortage of carbon sink and encumber achievement of national carbon-neutral goal to 2050. If forestland conversion would be occurred inevitably in future according to such change trends of all types, improved laws and polices related to forestland should be prepared for planned use and rational conservation in terms of whole territory management. Therefore, it is needed to offer sufficient incentive, such as tax reduction and payment of ecosystem service on excellent forestland protection and maintenance, to private owners for minimizing forestland conversion. Moreover, active afforestation policy and practice have to be implemented on idle land for reaching national goal 'Carbon Neutral to 2050' in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.41-59
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• 2022

In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.33 no.5_1
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• pp.507-519
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• 2017

The applications of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) as a vegetation index has been widely used to understand vegetation biomass and physiological activities. However, NDVI is not suitable way for monitoring vegetation stress because it is less sensitive to change in physiological state than biomass. PRI (Photochemical Reflectance Index) is well developed to present physiological activities of vegetation, particularly high-light-stress condition, and it has been adopted in several satellites to be launched in the future. Thus, the understanding of PRI performance and the development of analysis method will be necessary. This study aims to interpret the characteristics of light-stress-sensitive PRI in shadow areas and to evaluate the PRI calculated by other wavelengths (i.e., 488.9 nm, 553.6 nm, 646.9 nm, and 668.4 nm) instead of 570 nm that used in original PRI. Using airborne-based hyperspectral image, we found that PRI values were increased in shadow detection due to the reduction of high light induced physiological stress. However, the qualities of both PRI and NDVI data were dramatically decreased when the shadow index (SI) exceeded the threshold (SI<25). In addition, the PRI calculated using by 553.6 nm had best correlation with original PRI. This relationship was improved by multiple regression analysis including reflectances of RED and NIR. These results will be helpful to the understanding of physiological meaning on the application of PRI.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.599-608
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• 2017

This paper proposed a methodology to analyze the economic and quantitative effects of lifting the import ban on Japanese pears by applying a price gap approach in the absence of any preference for either type of pear. Assuming that Korea will allow Japanese pear imports in 2018, the simulation results show that an annual average of 50,000 tons will flow into the domestic market from Japan. These imports will cause a decrease in the price and production of domestic pears, which would have a direct effect on the domestic pear industry, leading to an annual average reduction of 93 billion won. The cultivation area and production quantity are projected to be decreased by 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, compared to the baseline. Also, the annual average reduction in the overall agriculture sector is predicted to be about 209 billion won, which is a 0.4% reduction compared to the baseline. This research is expected to improve the methodologies available for proactive analysis, with the existing analysis focused on customs tariffs when Korea considers joining mega-FTAs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.113 no.1
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• pp.40-50
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• 2024

Pine forests are continuously declining due to competition with broadleaf trees, such as oaks, as a consequence of changes in the natural dynamics of forest ecosystem. This natural decline creates a risk of losing the various benefits pine trees have provided to people in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare future forest management directions by considering the state of pine tree decline in each region. The goal of this study is to understand the characteristics of pine forest changes according to forest dynamics and to predict future regional changes. For this purpose, we evaluated the trend of change in pine forests and extracted various variables(topography, forest stand type, disturbance, and climate) that affect the change, using time-series National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Also, using selected key variables, a model was developed to predict future changes in pine forests. As a results, it showed that the importance of pine trees in forests across the country has decreased overall over the past 10 years. Also, 75% of the sample points representing pine trees remained unchanged, while the remaining 25% had changed to mixed forests. It was found that these changes mainly occurred in areas with good moisture conditions or disturbance factors inside and outside the forest. In the next 10 years, approximately 14.2% of current pine forests was predicted to convert to mixed forests due to changes in natural forest dynamics. Regionally, the rate of pine forest change was highest in Jeju(42.8%) and Gyeonggi(26.9%) and lowest in Gyeongbuk(8.8%) and Gangwon(13.8%). It was predicted that pine forests would be at a high risk of decline in western areas of the Korean Peninsula, including Gyeonggi, Chungcheong, and Jeonnam. This results can be used to make a management plan for pine forests throughout the country.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.194-210
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• 2022

The monthly inventory of dissolved inorganic carbon (C_T) and its fluxes were simulated using a box-model for the southeastern Yellow Sea, bordering the northern East China Sea. The monthly C_T data was constructed by combining the observed data representing four seasons with the data adopted from the recent publications. A 2-box-model of the surface and deep layers was used, assuming that the annual C_T inventory was at the steady state and its fluctuations due to the advection in the surface box were negligible. Results of the simulation point out that the monthly C_T inventory variation between the surface and deep box was driven primarily by the mixing flux due to the variation of the mixed layer depth, on the scale of -40~35 mol C m^-2 month^-1. The air to sea CO₂ flux was about 2 mol C m^-2 yr^-1 and was lower than 1/100 of the mixing flux. The biological pump flux estimated magnitude, in the range of 4-5 mol C m^-2 yr^-1, is about half the in situ measurement value reported. The C_T inventory of the water column was maximum in April, when mixing by cooling ceases, and decreases slightly throughout the stratified period. Therefore, the total C_T inventory is larger in the stratified period than that of the mixing period. In order to maintain a steady state, 18 mol C m^-2 yr^-1 (= 216 g C m^-2 yr^-1), the difference between the maximum and minimum monthly CT inventory, should be transported out to the East China Sea. Extrapolating this flux over the entire southern Yellow Sea boundary yields 4 × 10⁹ g C yr^-1. Conceptually this flux is equivalent to the proposed continental shelf pump. Since this flux must go through the vast shelf area of the East China Sea before it joins the open Pacific waters the actual contribution as a continental shelf pump would be significantly lower than reported value. Although errors accompanied the simple box model simulation imposed by the paucity of data and assumptions are considerably large, nevertheless it was possible to constrain the relative contribution among the major fluxes and their range that caused the C_T inventory variations, and was able to suggest recommendations for the future studies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.31-40
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• 2009

Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.275-311
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• 2007

Hydrogen energy is emphasized as a substitutable energy of carbon-based energy system in the future, since it is non-depletable and clean energy. Long term vision of Korean government on the national energy system is to promote hydrogen energy by 15% of final energy demand until 2040. This study analyzes economic impacts of hydrogen energy development employing a dynamic CGE model for Korea. Frontier technology such as hydrogen energy is featured as slow diffusion at the initial stage due to the learning effect and energy complementarity. Without government intervention, hydrogen energy would be produced upto 6.5% of final energy demand until 2040. However, if government subsidizes sales price of hydrogen energy by 10%, 20%, and 30%, share of hydrogen energy would increase 9.2%, 15.2%, and 37.7% of final energy demand. This result shows that the slow diffusion problem of hydrogen energy as frontier technology could be figured out by market incentive policy. On the other hand, production levels of transportation sector would increase while growth rate of oil and electricity sectors would decline. Household consumption would be affected negatively since increase of consumption due to the price decrease would be overwhelmed by income reduction owing to the increase of tax. Overall, GDP would not decrease or increase significantly since total production, investment, and export would increase even if household consumption declines.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.165-185
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• 2011

Transshipment traffic has significant meanings because it gives positive effects on increasing the container handling volumes in seaports, and revitalizes the regional and national development. Korean container port's transshipment traffic volumes, however, will slowly decrease due to the direct ships' calling into Chinese ports, which recently has a huge development plan. There are a lot of stress on forecasting the transshipment traffic volumes because the Korean container port development plans are designed based on this container traffic which consists of import and export traffic, and transshipment traffic. The transshipment traffic volumes are assumed to occupy 40% of total container traffic volumes. Despite of the importance of forecasting the transshipment traffic, a little studies are suggested using the concepts of the port competitiveness. In this respect, this study aims to estimate the Port Competitiveness Index and Transshipment traffic Volumes using the System Dynamics methodology. As a result, transshipment traffic volumes are predicted as: 20 million TEUs in Korea under the 4% annual increasing rates, 90 million TEUs in China under the 6% annual increasing rates, and 2.5 million TEUs in Japan under the 1% annual increasing rates respectively. The suggested results can be used to enhance the container port competitiveness and produce more transshipment traffic volumes.

• Journal of Life Science
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.199-207
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• 2023

To prepare for the threat of a future epidemic in the post-COVID-19 era, research based on the one-health concept (i.e., the health of humans, animals, and the environment as "one") is essential. Cross-species infections are being identified as a result of the high infection rate and viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. The possibility of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to mink has been determined. In addition, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to cats through contact has been considered possible. The data so far show that livestock and poultry are less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, if infections are established through a new mutation, the resulting diseases are expected to have enormous ripple effects on various fields, such as human food security, the economy, and trade. In addition, there are concerns about the endemic prospect of SARS-CoV-2 and the high accessibility of companion animals. This is because the evolution of the virus likely occurs in animal hosts. Once SARS-CoV-2 is established in other species, they might serve as intermediate hosts for the re-emergence of the virus in the human population. Thus, it is necessary to ensure a rapid response to future outbreaks by accumulating research data on the animal infection of SARS-CoV-2. These data can have implications for the development of animal models for vaccines and therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, in this study, epidemiological reviews were analyzed, and response strategies against SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals were presented using the One-health approach.