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http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2017.18.1.599

An Ex-ante Analysis of Lifting the Japanese Pear's Import Ban on SPS  

Han, Suk-Ho (Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Seo, Hong-Seok (Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Youm, Jung-Won (Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.18, no.1, 2017 , pp. 599-608 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper proposed a methodology to analyze the economic and quantitative effects of lifting the import ban on Japanese pears by applying a price gap approach in the absence of any preference for either type of pear. Assuming that Korea will allow Japanese pear imports in 2018, the simulation results show that an annual average of 50,000 tons will flow into the domestic market from Japan. These imports will cause a decrease in the price and production of domestic pears, which would have a direct effect on the domestic pear industry, leading to an annual average reduction of 93 billion won. The cultivation area and production quantity are projected to be decreased by 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, compared to the baseline. Also, the annual average reduction in the overall agriculture sector is predicted to be about 209 billion won, which is a 0.4% reduction compared to the baseline. This research is expected to improve the methodologies available for proactive analysis, with the existing analysis focused on customs tariffs when Korea considers joining mega-FTAs.
Keywords
Mega-FTA; Sanitary & Phytosanitary Measures(SPS); Import ban; Pear; Price-wedge;
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