• Title/Summary/Keyword: 장단비 분포

Search Result 10, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

A Study on Prediction of Young's Modulus of Composite with Aspect Ratio Distribution of Short Fiber (장단비 분포를 갖는 단섬유 복합재의 영계수 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, J.K.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
    • /
    • v.10 no.4
    • /
    • pp.99-104
    • /
    • 2006
  • Young's modulus of composite has been predicted by Eshelby's equivalent inclusion method modified with Mori-Tanaka's mean field theory, where short fibers of aspect ratio distribution are assumed to be aligned. Young's modulus of the composite is predicted with the smallest class interval for simulating the actual distribution of fiber aspect ratio, which is compared with that computed using different class intervals. Young's modulus of the composite predicted with mean aspect ratio or the largest class interval is overestimated by the maximum 10%. As the class interval of short fibers for predicting Young's modulus decreases, the predicted results show good agreements with those obtained using the actual distribution of fiber aspect ratio. It can be finally concluded from the study that if and only if the class interval of short fiber normalized by the maximum aspect ratio is smaller than 0.1, the predicted results are consistent with those obtained using the actual distribution of aspect ratio.

  • PDF

Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature and Detection of Ocean Heat Wave in the South Sea of Korea Using Time-series Deep-learning Approaches (시계열 기계학습을 이용한 한반도 남해 해수면 온도 예측 및 고수온 탐지)

  • Jung, Sihun;Kim, Young Jun;Park, Sumin;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.36 no.5_3
    • /
    • pp.1077-1093
    • /
    • 2020
  • Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an important environmental indicator that affects climate coupling systems around the world. In particular, coastal regions suffer from abnormal SST resulting in huge socio-economic damage. This study used Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) to predict SST up to 7 days in the south sea region in South Korea. The results showed that the ConvLSTM model outperformed the LSTM model, resulting in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.33℃ and a mean difference of -0.0098℃. Seasonal comparison also showed the superiority of ConvLSTM to LSTM for all seasons. However, in summer, the prediction accuracy for both models with all lead times dramatically decreased, resulting in RMSEs of 0.48℃ and 0.27℃ for LSTM and ConvLSTM, respectively. This study also examined the prediction of abnormally high SST based on three ocean heatwave categories (i.e., warning, caution, and attention) with the lead time from one to seven days for an ocean heatwave case in summer 2017. ConvLSTM was able to successfully predict ocean heatwave five days in advance.

An Analysis for the Adjustment Process of Market Variations by the Formulation of Time tag Structure (시차구조의 설정에 따른 시장변동의 조정과정 분석)

  • 김태호;이청림
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.87-100
    • /
    • 2003
  • Most of statistical data are generated by a set of dynamic, stochastic, and simultaneous relations. An important question is how to specify statistical models so that they are consistent with the dynamic feature of those data. A general hypothesis is that the lagged effect of a change in an explanatory variable is not felt all at once at a single point in time, but The impact is distributed over a number of future points in time. In other words, current control variables are determined by a function that can be reduced to a distributed lag function of past observations. It is possible to explain the relationship between variables in different points of time and to estimate the long-run impacts of a change in a variable on another if time lag series of explanatory variables are incorporated in the model specification. In this study, distributed lag structure is applied to the domestic stock market model to capture the dynamic response of the market by exogenous shocks. The Domestic market is found more responsive to the changes in foreign market factors both in the short and the long run.

Simulation of soil moisture on Youngdam Dam basin using K-DRUM (K-DRUM 모형을 이용한 용담댐 유역의 토양수분 변화 모의)

  • Hur, Young Teck;Lim, Kwang Suop;Park, Jin Hyeog;Park, Gu Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.281-281
    • /
    • 2016
  • 기후변화로 인한 기상학적 자연재해로부터 대비하고 안정적인 용수공급을 위해 유역의 다양한 수문 요소들에 대한 분석 필요성이 증가하고 있다. 계절적 강수량의 편차가 큰 우리나라는 유역 통합 물관리가 중요하며, 효율적 수자원 관리와 물안보 확보를 위해 유역내 물순환을 이해하는 것이 중요하다. 유역의 유출을 결정하는 요소들에는 강우, 증발산량, 토양 수분 및 지하수 등이 있으며, 시간적으로는 홍수와 같이 단기에 발생하는 유출과 장기적으로 발생하는 유출이 있다. 장기 유출은 단기 유출에 비해 토양내 수분량이 무시할 수 없을 정도로 영향을 미치게 되므로, 1년 이상의 장기 유출 해석을 위해서는 강우가 발생하지 않는 기간 동안의 토양 수분량 변화와 증발산 영향을 고려할 필요가 있다. K-water에서 자체 개발된 분포형 장단기유출 모델인 K-DRUM은 유역을 격자(grid)단위로 구분하고 각 셀들에 대한 매개변수는 흐름방향도, 표고분포도, 토지이용도, 토지피복도 등을 GIS처리하여 일괄 입력할 수 있도록 함으로써 매개변수 산정과정에서 문제가 되는 경험적인 요인을 제거하였다. 흐름의 구분은 얕은면 흐름, 지표하 흐름, 지하수 흐름으로 구분하여 운동파법과 선형저류법을 적용하였다. 또한 초기 토양함수 자동보정기법으로 실제의 기저유출량을 재현하여 전체적인 유출모의 정확도를 높였으며, FAO-56 Penman-Monteith법을 적용한 증발산량 산정모듈과 Sugawara et al.(1984)이 제안한 개념적 융설 및 적설모듈을 추가하였다. K-DRUM모형을 이용한 유출분석은 용담댐 시험유역을 대상으로 2013년도 1년간의 유출모의를 수행하였다. 입력자료는 용담댐 유역의 지형, 토양 및 토지특성 정보와 시단위 강우 및 기상정보(온도, 바람, 일사 등)를 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 총 관측유출량은 7,151 ㎥/s이고 총 계산유출량 $8,257m^3/s$이며, 관측유출량 대비 계산유출량은 약 115% 정도로 나타났다. 연간 총 강우량은 1303.5 mm로 유역면적 약 $930km^2$을 적용하여 유역 총 강우량을 산정하면 $14,030m^3/s$로서 관측유출량은 유역 총 강우량 대비 51%이고 계산유출량은 59% 정도로 나타났다. 즉 유역 유출율은 약 51% 수준으로 보통의 유역과 유사한 수준이다. 관측된 토양수분량과 K-DRUM 모형의 계산된 토양수분량을 비교하기 위하여 관측 토양수분량의 비율을 이용하여 비교하였다. 모의결과 토양수분은 강우에 의해 변화하며, 관측결과와 유사한 형태로 나타남을 알 수 있었다.

  • PDF

Study on the Winter Mass Mortality of red sea bream, Pagrus major in South sea area (동절기 남해안 참돔(Pagrus major)의 대량폐사에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Hye-Sung;Jung, Sung-Hee;Hur, Young-baek;Yang, Jun-Yong
    • Journal of fish pathology
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.35-43
    • /
    • 2008
  • Pathological symptoms and hematological parameters of red sea bream, Pagrus major and water temperature in the culture ground was investigated to clarlify the cause of winter moratility. Dead fish showed green liver and accumulation of ascites in the cavity. A few Bivagina tai were also found on the gill but either bacteria or virus were not. When hematological parameters from fish taken before/after the winter mortality were compared, blood glucose, serum AST and ALT, and total cholesterol, trigyceride and total protein were significantly decreased in the fish after the winter mortality. These results may explain that the nutritional level of fish was decreased because fish could not fed during winter season. According to the CORI monitoring system operating by KODC, NFRDI a long term water temperature from Dec. 25, 2005 to Feb. 24, 2006 (60 days) were exposed the low water temperature environments to the red sea bream. First of all, mass mortality began at Sarayngdo where low temperature below 8℃ continued for 42 days. The winter mortality did not occured in the depths of 9 m to 19.2 m where difference of water temperature in the surface and bottom was only within 0.1℃. But in the depth of 7.5 m to 11 m winter mortality occured where water temperature in the surface and bottom showed much variation ranged from 0.2℃ to 1.4℃. From these results, great difference of water temperature in the surface and bottom of the culturing area might results in winter mortality of red sea bream.

Mosaic disease of black locust(Robinia pseudoacacia L.) I. Symptom and transmission by grafting (아까시나무모자이크병에 관한 연구 I. 병징 및 접목전염)

  • Kim Chong Jin
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.3
    • /
    • pp.1-5
    • /
    • 1964
  • Symptom of the mosaic disease of black locust which is presently widespread in Korea was observed and transmission of the disease was investigated by means of grafting Since its symptom was typically mosaic and its transmission was easily accomplished, the disease was considered to be caused by a virus. In investigation of transmission by grafting, it was found out that the discase was easily transmitted in both of the following cases, i. e., healthy seedlings grafted with diseased scions and diseased roots with healthy scions. In the healthy seedlings plus diseased scions grafting, some grafted seedlings were purposedly deprived of the diseased scions after, a certain length of time(10∼30 days), while some were left grafted. The former case showed much higher transmission rate than the latter case, but no fluctuation in rate of transmission by the length of contact period(10-30 days) was recognized. And even when the union between stock and diseased scion by callusing was not successful, the transmission was withnesed. On the basis of the symptom, transmission by grafting, and possibility of transmission by sap inoculation(not published yet), it is supposed that the mosaic virus belongs to the group of the black locust mosaic virus that has been reported in southeastern Europe by Atanasoff(1935) and Milinko et al(1961). It is very likely that the witches' broom of black locust recorded by Myung-O Kim et al(1961) in Korea is the mosaic disease.

  • PDF

Development of Statistical Downscaling Model Using Nonstationary Markov Chain (비정상성 Markov Chain Model을 이용한 통계학적 Downscaling 기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.42 no.3
    • /
    • pp.213-225
    • /
    • 2009
  • A stationary Markov chain model is a stochastic process with the Markov property. Having the Markov property means that, given the present state, future states are independent of the past states. The Markov chain model has been widely used for water resources design as a main tool. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical properties remain the same for all times. Hence, the stationary Markov chain model basically can not consider the changes of mean or variance. In this regard, a primary objective of this study is to develop a model which is able to make use of exogenous variables. The regression based link functions are employed to dynamically update model parameters given the exogenous variables, and the model parameters are estimated by canonical correlation analysis. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at Seoul station having 46 years data from 1961 to 2006. The model shows a capability to reproduce daily and seasonal characteristics simultaneously. Therefore, the proposed model can be used as a short or mid-term prediction tool if elaborate GCM forecasts are used as a predictor. Also, the nonstationary Markov chain model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are provided as inputs.

Forecasting Korean CPI Inflation (우리나라 소비자물가상승률 예측)

  • Kang, Kyu Ho;Kim, Jungsung;Shin, Serim
    • Economic Analysis
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-42
    • /
    • 2021
  • The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

Results of Coventional Radiotherapy for Carcinomas of the Tonsillar Region (편도암의 방사선 치료 성적)

  • Nah Byung Sik;Nam Taek Keun;Ahn Sung Ja;Chung Woong Ki
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.97-104
    • /
    • 1997
  • of $PLC-\gamma$ 1 activity. Results : In the immunohistochemistry, the expression of $PLC-\beta$ was negative for all grnups. The expression of $PLC-\gamma$ 1 was highest in the group III followed by group II in the proliferative zone of mucosa. The expression of PKC-01 was strong1y positive in group I followed by group II in the damaged surface epithelium. The above findings were also confirmed in the immunoblotting study. In the irnrnunoblotting study, the expressions of $PLC-\beta,\;PLC-\gamma\;1,\;and\;PLC-\delta$ were the same as the results of immunohistochemistry The expression of ras oncoprotein was weakly Positive in groups II, III and IV. The of EGFR was the highest in the group II, III, followed by group W and the expression of PKC was weakly positive in the group II and III. Conclusion : $PLC-\gamma$ 1 mediated signal transduction including ras oncoprotein, EGFR, and PKC play a significant role irL mucosal regeneration after irradiation. $PLC-\delta$ 1 mediated signal transduction might have an important role in mucosal damage after irradiation. Further studies will be necessary to confirm the signal transduction mediating the $PLC-\delta$ 1.

  • PDF

Studies on Grain Filling and Quality Changes of Hard and Soft Wheat Grown under the Different Environmental Conditions (환경 변동에 따른 경ㆍ연질 소맥의 등숙 및 품질의 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Young-Soo Han
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
    • /
    • v.17
    • /
    • pp.1-44
    • /
    • 1974
  • These studies were made at Suwon in 1972 and at Suwon, Iri, and Kwangju in 1973 to investigate grain filling process and variation of grain quality of NB 68513 and Caprock as hard red winter wheat, Suke #169 as soft red winter wheat variety and Yungkwang as semi-hard winter variety, grown under-three different fertilizer levels and seeding dates. Other experiments were conducted to find the effects of temperature, humidity and light intensity on the grain filling process and grain quality of Yungkwang and NB 68513 wheat varieties. These, experiments were conducted at Suwon in 1973 and 1974. 1. Grain filling process of wheat cultivars: 1) The frequency distribution of a grain weight shows that wider distribution of grain weight was associated with large grain groups rather than small grain group. In the large grain groups, the frequency was mostly concentrated near mean value, while the frequency was dispersed over the values in the small grain group. 2) The grain weight was more affected by the grain thickness and width than by grain length. 3) The grain weight during the ripening period was rapidly increased from 14 days after flowering to 35 days in Yungkwang and from 14 days after flowering to 28 days in NB 68513. The large grain group, Yungkwang was rather slowly increased and took a longer period in increase of endosperm ratio of grain than the small grain group, NB 68513. 4) In general, the 1, 000 grain weight was reduced under high temperature, low humidity, while it was increased under low temperature and high humidity condition, and under high temperature and humidity condition. The effect of shading on grain weight was greater in high temperature than in low temperature condition and no definite tendency was found in high humidity condition. 5) The effects of temperature, humidity and shading on 1, 000 grain weight were greater in large-grain group, Yungkwang than in small grain group, NB 68513. Highly significant positive correlation was found between 1, 000 grain weight and days to ripening. 6) The 1, 000 grain weight and test weight were increased more or less as the fertilizer levels applied were increased. However, the rate of increasing 1, 000 grain weight was low when fertilizer levels were increased from standard to double. The 1, 000 grain weight was high when planted early. Such tendency was greater in Suwon than in Kwangju or Iri area. 2. Milling quality: 7) The milling rate in a same group of varieties was higher under the condition of low temperature, high humidity and early maturing culture which were responsible for increasing 1, 000 grain weight. No definite relations were found along with locations. 8) In the varieties tested, the higher milling rate was found in large grain variety, Yungkwang, and the lowest milling rate was obtained from Suke # 169, the small grain variety. But the small grained hard wheat variety such as Caprock and NB 68513 showed higher milling rate compared with the soft wheat variety, Suke # 169. 9) There were no great differences of ash content due to location, fertilizer level and seeding date while remarkable differences due to variety were found. The ash content was high in the hard wheat varieties such as NB 68513, Caprock and low in soft wheat varieties such as Yungkwang and Suke # 169. 3. Protein content: 10) The protein content was increased under the condition of high temperature, low humidity and shading, which were responsible for reduction of 1, 000 grain weight. The varietal differences of protein content due to high temperature, low humidity and shading conditions were greater in Yungkwang than in NB 68513. 11) The high content of protein in grain within one to two weeks after flowering might be due to the high ratio of pericarp and embryo to endosperm. As grains ripen, the effects of embryo and pericarp on protein content were decreased, reducing protein content. However, the protein content was getting increased from three or four weeks after flowering, and maximized at seven weeks after flowering. The protein content of grain at three to four weeks after flowering increased as the increase of 1, 000 grain weight. But the protein content of matured grain appeared to be affected by daily temperature on calender rather than by duration of ripening period. 12) Highly significant positive correlation value was found between the grain protein content and flour protein content. 13) The protein content was increased under the high level of fertilizers and late seeding. The local differences of protein content were greater in Suwon than in Kwangju and Iri. 14) Protein content in the varieties tested were high in Yungkwang, NB 68513 and Caprock, and low in Suke # 169. However, variation in protein content due to the cultural methods was low in Suke # 169. 15) Protein yield per unit area was increased in accordance with increase of fertilizer levels and early maturing culture. However, nitrogen fertilizer was utilized rather effectively in early maturing culture and Yungkwang was the highest in protein yield per unit area. 4. Physio-chemical properties of wheat flour: 16) Sedimentation value was higher under the conditions of high temperature, low humidity and high levels of fertilizers than under the conditions of low temperature, high moisture and low levels of fertilizers. Such differences of sedimentation values were more apparent in NB 68513 and Caprock than Yungkwang and Suke # 169. The local difference of sedimentation value was greater in Suwon than in Kwangju and Iri. Even though the sedimentation value was highly correlated with protein content of grain, the high humidity was considered one of the factors affecting sedimentation value. 17) Changes of Pelshenke values due to the differences of cultural practices and locations were generally coincident with sedimentation values. 18) The mixing time required for mixogram was four to six minutes in NB 68513, five to seven minutes in Cap rock. The great variation of mixing time for Yungkwang and Suke # 169 due to location and planting conditions was found. The mixing height and area were high in hard wheat than in soft wheat. Variation of protein content due to cultural methods were inconsistent. However, the pattern of mixogram were very much same regardless the treatments applied. With this regard, it could be concluded that the mixogram is a kind of method expressing the specific character of the variety. 19) Even though the milling property of NB 68513 and Caprock was deteriorated under either high temperature and low humidity of high fertilizer levels and late seeding conditions, baking quality was better due to improved physio-chemical properties of flour. In contrast, early maturing culture deteriorated physio-chemical properties, milling property of grain and grain protein yield per unit area was increased. However, it might be concluded that the hard wheat production of NB 68513 and Caprock for baking purpose could be done better in Suwon than in Iri or Kwangju area. 5. Interrelationships between the physio-chemical characters of wheat flour: 20) Physio-chemical properties of flour didn't have direct relationship with milling rate and ash content. Low grain weight produced high protein content and better physio-chemical flour properties. 21) In hard wheat varieties like NB 68513 and Caprock, protein content was significantly correlated with sedimentation value, Pelshenke value and mixing height. However, gluten strength and baking quality were improved by the increased protein content. In Yungkwang and Suk # 169, protein content was correlated with sedimentation value, but no correlations were found with Pelshenke value and mixing height. Consequently, increase of protein content didn't improve the gluten strength in soft wheat. 22) The highly significant relationships between protein content and gluten strength and sedimentation . value, and between Pelshenke value, mixogram and gluten strength indicated that the determination of mixogram and Pelshenke value are useful for de terming soft and hard type of varieties. Determination of sedimentation value is considered useful method for quality evaluation of wheat grain under different cultural practices.

  • PDF