• Title/Summary/Keyword: 장기 항해

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Time-Series Prediction of Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Using an Application of Recurrent Neural Networks (Recurrent Neural Networks를 활용한 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 예측)

  • Han, Min-Soo;Yu, Song-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.50-53
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    • 2017
  • Not only growth of importance to understanding economic trends, but also the prediction to overcome the uncertainty is coming up for long-term maritime recession. This paper discussed about the prediction of BDI with artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN is one of emerging applications that can be the finest solution to the knotty problems that may not easy to achieve by humankind. Proposed a prediction by implementing neural networks that have recurrent architecture which are a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). And for the reason of comparison, trained Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) from 2009.04.01 to 2017.07.31. Also made a comparison with conventional statistics, prediction tools; ARIMA. As a result, recurrent net, especially RNN outperformed and also could discover the applicability of LSTM to specific time-series (BDI).

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A Study on the development of the aquaculture fishcage for the open sea (외해용 양식 구조물 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jong-Keun;Jeong, Seong-Jae;Yoon, Ji-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.285-290
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    • 2005
  • Until now, korean aquaculture industry has been grown largely from a quantitative viewpoint. However, an increase of quantity has caused lots of problems producing a derived effect recently. Nearly 82% of korean aquaculture farms had been installed mainly at inshore of the southern sea and also sewage, factory wastes, high density of fishcage at the limited area and autoinfection have deteriorated inshore fisheries. The offshore have been on the rise for the solution to these problems since it has clear seawater reduces the environmental pollution with much current. As a matter of fact, the existing inshore fishcage facilities have trouble advancing to the offshore due to the rough environmental conditons such as a high sea, strong currents etc.; therefore, it is necessary to develop a new cultivating equipment fit the open sea conditons. In this research, the theoretical study and experimental analysis have been carried out for the fishcage design of the structure which is able to use at the open sea.

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An Empirical Study on the Effects of the Determinants of Service Quality to Customer Satisfaction in P&I Insurance (P&I 보험의 서비스품질 결정요인이 고객만족에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구)

  • Park, Beom-Shik;Shin, Young-Ran;Shin, Han-Won
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.855-861
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    • 2011
  • With the rapid growth and development of the Korean Shipping Industry both in external quantum and internal complexity, the marine insurance industry has accordingly expanded with it. This empirical study analyzes the quality factors of the Insurance and P&I Services using 5 factors of quality measures with 22 questions regarding the effect on customer satisfaction by the services offered by the P&I Clubs. The Study is expected to provide P&I Clubs with management tactics for customer satisfaction and the subsequent continued patronage supported by their members through the enhancement of the service quality. This study also provides direction for ship-owners and the members of the P&I Clubs in finding the most efficient service provider as well as in proposing competitive prices of the P&I insurance premium as their management tactic.

Revisit to Estimate the Time Cost of Ships and Cargoes (우리나라 항만에서의 체선ㆍ체화 시간비용 재추정)

  • Chang, Young-Tae;Sung, Souk-Kyung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.383-390
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    • 2002
  • The time cost of ship end cargoes is one of the most important data for decision-making of port investment and operational efficiency. Studies in this area were initiated internationally by Goss and Mann in late 70's and also done in Korea 10 years ago using the same methodology as Goss. The main purpose of this paper is to revisit to estimate the time cost using updated data. The estimation was undertaken sampling data on various investment and operating costs by vessel from 205 vessels, comprising 47.5% of the notional fleet in Korea as well as on cargoes from international trade statistics. Compared with the study of 10 years ago, major finding of this research is that time costs of liquid and dry bulk carriers have increased, in case of the former type, showing almost doubled cost increase. The increase is deemed to be caused by very expensive LNG carriers. Lowered social discount rate in this study compared with 10 years ago, in general, has mused the costs to stay at similar level to the previous study. Sensitivity tests were conducted using various social discount rates.

A Study on Improvement of Coastal Landscape Management Systems in Busan City (부산 연안의 경관관리제도 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Han-Seok;Doe, Geun-Young;Cho, Yong-Soo;Yee, Jurng-Jae;Kim, Na-Young
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to propose new systems for improvement of coastal landscape management in Busan area. The coastal landscape management systems in Busan are divided into urban planning sector, coastal management sector and environmental preservation sector without any comprehensive lay or integrated management system. These findings indicate that the coastal landscape is in need of integrated management in the form of coastal management rather than urban planning because coastal landscape os different from urban landscape by nature. The coastal landcape management ordinance which is based on the Coastal Management Ant should be established and the special zoning system for costal landscape management is to be set up under this ordinance. Then the comprehensive landscape plan for Busan coastal area and the design guidelines for each zone are mandatory. Also Busan city government and the district office must have a responsible department, experts and coastal landscape review committees.

Global Warming and Trends of Typhoon Variation (지구 온난화와 태풍의 변화 경향)

  • Seol, Dong-Il
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.453-458
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    • 2010
  • This paper studies relationship between global warming and trends of typhoon variation by using the meteorological long-term data. The results show that yearly mean typhoon's occurrence numbers decrease and maximum wind speeds strengthen gradually. These results are in accord with most of simulated results. While the normal course of typhoon is increased, the westward course of that is decreased. Typhoon trajectories show that the ratios of normal course 6 : westward course 3 : abnormal course 1 in the last 10 years. Among typhoons which affect to the Korea ones pass through the southern coast of Korea are the most. The numbers of typhoon pass through the western coast of Korea are decreased and those pass through the eastern coast of Korea show increasing trend lately. The notable point in relation to the global warming is that typhoon intensity is strengthened gradually. Watch and counterplan in the viewpoint of prevention to the meteorological disasters are required.

A Study on the New DEA Ranking Measurement for the Efficient Seaports based on Changing the Reference Set (참조집단의 변화를 통한 효율적인 항만의 순위측정방법:DEA 접근)

  • Park, Ro-Kyung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.31 no.5 s.121
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    • pp.403-408
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to show a way for measuring the rankings of efficient seaports in Korea by using DEA(data envelopment analysis) and model suggested by Jahanshahloo et al(2006). Two inputs(birthing capacity, and cargo handling capacity) and three outputs(export cargo handling amount, import cargo handling amount, and number of ship calls), and one cross sectional data(2004) for 26 Korean seaports are considered for measuring the efficiencies. An empirical main result indicates that ranking order of efficient seaports are Okpo, Samcheok Ulsan, Daesan, Busan, Gohyun Ports. Samcheok Port is classified as the most strong efficient port among 16 general ports except 10 container ports. The Korean seaport authority can adopt the new measurement way introduced in this paper for measuring the exact ranking order of efficient seaports when it decides the development and investment to each efficient seaport.

The Estimation of the Future Container Ship Traffic for Three Major Ports in Korea (국내 3대 주요 컨테이너항만의 장래 컨테이너선박 교통량 추정)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.31 no.5 s.121
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    • pp.353-359
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    • 2007
  • Effective plan and operation managements can be established in advance if the traffic volume of container ship will be forecasted in the trend for container port's cargo volume to increase. At the viewpoint for marine traffic the number of incoming and outgoing container ship can be presumed in the long run and organised rational plan to deal the demand of marine traffic on the basis. Therefore, the paper estimated the future traffic volume of incoming and outgoing container ship for Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon port on a forecasting data basis of container volume suggested in the national ports base plan. The trends of volume per ship on container were estimated with ARIMA models and seasonal index was computed. Thus the traffic volume of container ship in the future was estimated computing with volume per ship in 2011,2015, and 2020 respectively.

A Study on Present Condition and Spatial Organization of Domestic Marina Club to Design Leisure Floating Architecture (레저용 플로팅건축물 설계를 위한 국내 마리나클럽 현황 및 공간구성에 관한 연구)

  • Pak, Sung-Sine
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.253-259
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    • 2012
  • Marina and marina clubs are the essential structures to meet increasing marin tourism and marin leisure sports demand. According to the domestic situation, marina and marina clubs are divided into 6 types such as small sports type, small complex type, midium sports type, midium complex type, large sports type, large complex type. As a result of analysis of domestic three marina clubs, averagely marina facilities take 21% and commercial facilities take 79% of total space. In the short term, marina club should be designed focusing on complex program. Marina club will be for long-term transformed into marin leisure sports program. Additionally, it is certain that floating marina club is an architecture to have water-friendly space and to maximize marin tourism and marin leisure sports.

Safe Management for Hazardous Cargo in relation to explosions in port of Tianjin (천진항 사고에 따른 안전한 위험물 관리방안)

  • An, Jung-Min;Lee, Hong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.208-210
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    • 2015
  • After the huge explosive accident in port of Tianjin, it is being strengthened on the dangerous goods regulations. This also has been make an extra impact which must meet international standards and even different parts became possible import customs regulations exporting from Korea. Since 2004, internationally in compliance with the enforced the transport of dangerous goods regulations (IMDG Code), but becomes substantial damage to the domestic industry that exports of dangerous goods is a lot of difficulties in the logistics of efficiency due to possible follows only the clearance to the needs of the Chinese Government. In Korea and secure hazardous materials management needs have emerged, but piecemeal ad hoc policy is connected economically costly and unnecessary regulations weighted long-term safe at the same time enables continuation of the development of the only domestic chemical industry to find effective hazardous materials management plan it is.

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